Money On The Nose: May 2014

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Triple Crown Winners & Post Time Favorites the Same

Belmont Stakes Stats Guide
How does California Chrome fit the statistics for the Belmont Stakes? Get ready for the Belmont Stakes with our Belmont Stakes Stats Guide. Packed full of stats and analysis to help you include and exclude horses in the third leg of the Triple Crown.

Triple Crown Winners & Post Time Favorites share Winning %
On June 7th, California Chrome will try to become just the 12th horse since 1919 to sweep the Triple Crown by winning the Belmont Stakes. The excitement that builds in the 3 weeks between the Preakness and Belmont when a Triple Crown is on the line is as good as it gets in the sport of Horse Racing. The last time we had this scenario was in 2012 when a game I'll Have Another ran down Bodemeister in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. He looked poised to take down the Triple Crown for the first time since Affirmed in 1978. Unfortunately, just a few days before the Belmont Stakes, I'll Have Another had to be scratched due to an injury that ended his racing career. As always, I applaud his connections for taking care of the horse. I had been at the Preakness to see him just get by Bodemeister at the wire. I can honestly say that was the most exciting horse race I have ever seen live. Going into the Belmont based on his post position and grinding running style I thought he was a lock to win the race. The let done from the I'll Have Another scratch in the Belmont was tough to swallow for this horse racing fan and handicapper.

Then there was Big Brown in 2008, a dominant winner in both the Derby and Preakness. He came into the race looking like a monster only to be eased going around the 2nd turn. Smarty Jones in 2004 was race ridden by other jockeys throughout the race which softened him to get beat in the shadow of the wire. In 2003, Funny Cide failed in his bid. War Emblem in 2002, was a horse that needed to be on the lead, he lost all chance when he stumbled badly leaving the gate. In 1998, Real Quiet came about as close as a horse can to winning the Triple Crown. In a race that had to be decided by a photo, Real Quiet was beaten by a nose in the Belmont Stakes.

With the current 36 year Triple Crown drought and the recent near misses it got me curious about the percentage of horses that win both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness but lose in the Belmont, versus those horses that sweep the Triple Crown by winning all three races. As we know including Sir Barton in 1919 (although it was not officially named Triple Crown at the time) there have been 11 horses to win all three races. They are Sir Barton (1919), Gallant Fox (1930), Omaha (1935), War Admiral (1937), Whirlaway (1941), Assault (1946), Citation (1948), Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977) and Affirmed (1978).

Although it was not officially name the "Triple Crown" at the time, Sir Barton was later credited as a Triple Crown winner after sweeping the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes in 1919. So, we'll start looking at our statistics from that point forward.

Since 1919, there have been 33 horses that won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. But, 3 of those horses did not run in the Belmont Stakes (1932, 1936, 2012). That leaves us with 30 horses that won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes and went on to compete in the Belmont Stakes. As we already know, 11 of those horses completed the Triple Crown by winning the Belmont Stakes. That would give us a 37% win percentage in the Belmont Stakes for horses that won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. That is just slightly better than the post time favorite wins everyday at tracks all across America. From this point of view, horses trying for the Triple Crown aren't fairing too bad.

Now, let's dig a little deeper by splitting in half the 30 years where a horse won both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. The first half would be from 1919 to 1969. Obviously, there were 15 attempts to win the Triple Crown. Of those 15 attempts, 8 horses won the Triple Crown. That gives us a 53% win percentage in the Belmont Stakes during those years for horses that won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.

The second half is from1971 to current. Again, during this time period there were 15 attempts to complete the Triple Crown. Just 3 times during those 15 attempts did a horse win the Triple Crown. That computes to only a 20% win average for the Triple Crown during those years. When looking at the sample from this point of view it would appear the trend is going down for Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners that go on to win the Belmont Stakes thus sweeping the Triple Crown.

However, when it is feasible I always think it is better to look at statistics as a whole instead of picking and choosing which parts of the sample to use. Though I do have to take notice of the downward trend over the last 15 attempts, I also have to note that during that time period we have had some near misses and some purely bad racing luck for horses trying for the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes. In 1979, Spectacular Bid was given a bad ride when he was allowed to set fast early fractions. He faded to 3rd in the stretch. In 1981, Pleasant Colony finished 3rd beaten just 2 lengths. After having the lead for most of the stretch drive Silver Charm lost by just 1/2 a length in 1997. The closest we've come to a Triple Crown winner during this 36 year drought was in 1998 when Real Quiet was beaten by just a few inches at the wire. In 1999, after getting a brief lead in the stretch, Charismatic was beaten just 2 lengths. As I mentioned before, in 2002 War Emblem stumbled badly at the start losing all chance as he was a horse that needed to race on the lead. In 2004, the very game Smarty Jones fought off challenges for nearly the entire race only to lose by 1 length. Finally, in 2008, the mighty Big Brown looked poised pounce going into the 2nd turn, but he was eased as they rounded the turn. Later, it was discovered that one of Big Brown's shoes was flopping during the race.

With all those near misses in just the last 15 attempts at sweeping the Triple Crown, I think it is best to look at the sample as a whole from 1919 until current. A 37% win percentage in the Belmont Stakes for horses that won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness is not bad when compared to the win percentage for post time favorites at tracks everyday.

To me this suggest we'll see one (if not several) soon...Bring it Home Chrome!

Monday, May 26, 2014

5-26-2014 - Gulfstream Park Races 5-10 - Rainbow Pick 6

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Post Preakness Stakes Thoughts

Belmont Stakes Stats Guide
How does California Chrome fit the statistics for the Belmont Stakes? Get ready for the Belmont Stakes with our Belmont Stakes Stats Guide. Packed full of stats and analysis to help you include and exclude horses in the third leg of the Triple Crown.

Post Preakness Stakes Thoughts

California Chrome Preakness Par Rating: 102

#3 California Chrome - Going into the race I said in my selections that if he breaks clean he is the best horse in the race by a few lengths. What I didn't expect was to see him prove exactly how much better than these he really is. First, he broke sharp and established great position within the first 1/16 of a mile. My wife and I were sitting in the grandstand at the 1/8 pole. When I saw his position as he past us the first time I leaned over and told my wife that he just won the race. But, the crowd was so loud she couldn't hear me. California Chrome stalked 2 lengths off the pace in great position on the outside until just before the 2nd turn.

That is when Luis Contreras decided to move early with Social Inclusion to try get the jump on California Chrome. This move by Social Inclusion was way too early and could have very well cost him a place. Going into the 2nd turn as soon as Social Inclusion ran up on the outside of California Chrome, Victor Espinoza's hand was forced. He had to put California Chrome in the race early. If he didn't, he risked getting his lane shut off and having to run down Social Inclusion later in stretch. He let out enough to keep California Chrome just ahead of Social Inclusion until the top of the stretch. Meanwhile, Joel Rosario on Ride On Curlin was watching all this unfold from the back of the pack. He slowly advanced on Ride On Curlin into striking position on the turn hoping the premature move by Social Inclusion would soften up California Chrome - it did not.

When asked by Espinoza, California Chrome with his quick burst of speed, quickly dispatched of Social Inclusion at the top of the stretch and looked to be pulling away from the field. That is when Joel Rosario pushed the "Go" button on Ride On Curlin. I'm sure he was expecting California Chrome to fold in the stretch after having to move so early to match strides with Social Inclusion. But California Chrome didn't come back and the best Ride On Curlin could do was to get within a 1-1/2 lengths at the finish even though he ran the best race of his career. After repelling bids from Social Inclusion and Ride On Curlin, California Chrome cruised under the wire much the best of this field.

To me what was most impressive about California Chrome is that he broke sharp, establish good position, was forced to move way early, repelled that foe, sustained that run to the wire while repelling a second closing foe that was running the race of his life. And, California Chrome did this on the inside part of the track, which over this spring meet at Pimlico has not been the best place to be.

#10 Ride On Curlin - Got a great trip and I think the rider change from the Kentucky Derby was justified. In the Preakness, Ride On Curlin sat about 9 lengths off the pace down the back stretch. He started to move up as they approached the 2nd turn. Then he made a gradual sustained bid circling the field on the 2nd turn. He was well within striking distance as they turned into the stretch where he was asked for full run. Ride On Curlin easily ran past a tiring Social Inclusion and set his sights on California Chrome. He closed the gap down the stretch, but California Chrome was moving well and Ride On Curlin couldn't catch him. He was easily 2nd best in the Preakness as it was almost 7 lengths back to Social Inclusion. In the Preakness, Ride On Curlin ran the best race of his career thus far.

#8 Social Inclusion - Was getting really hot before the race, but on some horses I don't mind all the sweating as that is just something they do. Shackleford who won the 2011 Preakness was the same way. Social Inclusion did act up in gate and nearly flipped. He didn't break sharp and that left him having to stalk the pace instead of being on the lead. Luis Contreras sent him up on the outside of California Chrome as they entered the 2nd turn and that pair battled around the turn before California Chrome put him away turning for home. Social Inclusion was obviously tiring in the stretch as he shift in and out a few times. It looked to me like Contreras, aboard Social Inclusion, thought he could get the jump on California Chrome with that early move. But, Social Inclusion couldn't sustain the run and that caused him to tire in the stretch. Also, I thought he needed to break sharp and go for the lead. Speed is his weapon and he was taken out of his game a little at the break. He seems like he could be a great miler to 1-1/8 mile horse. But, nonetheless he is still lightly raced and has a lot to learn. I would expect to see improvement going forward from this one.

#5 Bayern - Was squeezed badly between Ria Antonia and Ring Weekend at the break. Then had to check again off Social Inclusion when California Chrome shifted out. At this point he was completely out of his game and never got to be forwardly placed, which is his running style.

#6 Ria Antonia - I try not to criticize when someone runs a horse, but she was grossly over matched. And then, Calvin Borel rushes her up to the front to challenge the leader. She backed up badly on the 2nd turn interfering with General a Rod. I can't imagine this is the trip her connections had in mind.

#4 Ring Weekend - Usually does his best running on the lead and was not able to get there this time. Look for a good return next out if racing on the lead against lessers.

#2 General a Rod - Another one that typically races closer to the lead, but was further back in the Preakness. Next to Bayern this is the only other horse that I thought had a trip excuse. General a Rod was advancing on the the 2nd turn when Ria Antonia decided to throw in the towel and she backed up sharply into General a Rod, forcing him to step on the brakes. Once he got clear he continued to close and just missed catching Social Inclusion by a nose. Certainly the trip trouble on the 2nd turn cost him 3rd place.

The Preakness is an awesome place to be, especially when the Kentucky Derby winner comes back and wins again. I told several people that I've been in the Dean Dome when Carolina beat Duke on a last second shot that was missed by Duke. That place was loud, but it didn't come close to rivaling how loud Pimlico was when California Chrome won. The people sitting next to us at the Preakness said they were at the Olympics when Usain Bolt broke the world record and that didn't compare to the Preakness. All this to say, if you've never been to a Triple Crown race, the Preakness is a great one to start with and in my opinion it is the easiest one to go to.

Looking Towards the Belmont
The Belmont Stakes is typically won by horses that run either on the lead or within 5 lengths of the lead. In fact 17 of the last 20 winners have fit this criteria. This fits California Chrome perfectly. Truthfully, we don't know if any of the horses will want to run the 1-1/2 miles in the Belmont.   But, the Belmont is rarely won by an off the pace horse, like Commanding Curve who was 2nd in the Kentucky Derby. In the Preakness, California Chrome was forced to make a long sustained run while repelling two foes and I think that show of gameness along with a running style that fits the Belmont Stakes makes him a real contender.

Ride On Curlin was making up ground slowly on California Chrome in the Preakness. He'll need to be a little more forwardly placed in the Belmont if he expects to get by Chrome in the stretch. Regardless, he is doing well and I expect him to be a major player.

Tonalist is the Peter Pan winner, which is a prep race at Belmont Park for the Belmont Stakes. His front running style will serve him well in the Belmont, but like all the other horses the 1-1/2 mile distance will be the major question. Joel Rosario takes off Ride On Curlin to ride Tonalist, so that may say something. However, a runner from the Peter Pan Stakes has won the Belmont Stakes just 1 time in the last 20 years. The stats say he is up against it, but his recent form in the Peter Pan certainly makes the race interesting from a handicapping standpoint.

Looking forward to the Belmont! The horse racing fan side of me says, "Bring it home Chrome!"

Saturday, May 17, 2014

5/17 Pimlico - Preakness Day Races 2-12

Preakness Stats Guide
Get ready for the Preakness Stakes with our Preakness Stats Guide. Packed full of stats and analysis to help you include and exclude horses in the second leg of the Triple Crown.

5-17-2014 Preakness Day Races

Pre Scratches.

Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.

Note:
Because of the late hour I am only listing my reasoning for the winner and not each selection.

Multirace Bets-
Daily Double - Races 5,6
$2 - 2 / 12 = $2
$1 - 2,3 / 12 = $2
$1 - 2 / 12,7,6,4 = $4 - HIT $5.80
$1 - 2,3 / 12,7,6,4 = $8 - HIT $5.80

Daily Double - Races 6,7
$2 - 12 / 2 = $2
$1 - 12,7,6,4 / 2 = $4
$1 - 12 / 2,9,5 = $3
$1 - 12,7,6,4 / 2,9,5 = $12 - HIT $27.00

Race 2 - 1-1/16 Hcp - Play
A - #5 Lunar Rock (5/2) - should get a good trip, speed figures fit - WIN $7.80
B - #7 Regal Warrior (3-1) - 3RD
C - #10 No Brakes (6-1) - 2ND
D - #9 Who Dat Boy (10-1) - 5TH
E - #2 Tooth N Claw (9/2) - 7TH

Multi-Race Horses - 5,7,10
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5,7 / 5,7 = $4
$1 - 5,7 / 10,9,2,6 = $8 - HIT $20.50

Race 3 - 1-1/16 OC TURF - Play OFF TURF
OFF Turf Selections -
#9 Tom Kitten - 3RD
#4 Romp City - WIN
#7 Prospero - 5TH

Race 4 - 5f OC TURF - Action OFF TURF
OFF Turf Selections -
#7 Majestic Hussar - WIN $4.40
#6 Mystical Terp - 8TH
#5 Peppermint Prince - 6TH

Race 5 - 6f Maryland Sprint Handicap G3 - Play
A - #2 Happy My Way (6/5) - lays over this field, has serious early speed - WIN $3.20
B - #3 Lemon Drop Dream (4-1) - 2ND
C - #4 Salutos Amigos (3-1) - SCRATCHED
D - #6 Action Andy (8-1) - 5TH
E - #1 Sneaking Uponyou (12-1) - 4TH

Multi-Race Horses - 2,3
Suggest Plays:
Scratch affected plays.

Race 6 - 5f The Very One Stakes TURF - Action+
A - #12 Sensible Lady (7/2) - closes well and has won on a turf course labeled good several times - 9TH
B - #7 Ageless (9/2) - WIN
C - #6 Quality Lass (12-1) - 3RD
D - #4 Tizgale (8-1) - 11TH
E - #1 Allwewantforxams (10-1) - 14TH

Multi-Race Horses - 12,7,6
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 12,7,6 / 12,7,6 = $6

Race 7 - 6f Chicklang Stakes - Play
A - #2 Extrasexyhippzster (3-1) - really like horses that come off the derby trail and go back to what they do best - 7TH
B - #9 Brewing (8/5) - 2ND
C - #5 Meadowood (5-1) - WIN
D - #4 Ground Control (5-1) - SCRATCHED
E - #3 Jessethemarine (15-1) - 5TH
Multi-Race Horses - 2,9
Suggest Plays:
$0.50 - 2,9 / 2,9 / 5,4,3 = $3
$0.50 - 2,9 / 5,4,3 / 2,9 = $3
$0.50 - 2,9 / 5,4,3 / 5,4,3 = $6
$0.50 - 2,9 / 2,9,5 / 2,9,5,4 = $4

Race 8 - 1mi James W. Murphy Stakes TURF - Action+
A - #6 Thunder Strike (8-1) - feels like he is coming into the race the right way for Motion, should get a good trip - 3RD
B - #2 Camden Street (7/2) - 6TH
C - #1 Special Envoy (3-1) - 5TH
D - #4 Wallyanna (8-1) - WIN
E - #5 Joint Custody (5-1) - SCRATCHED

Multi-Race Horses - 6,2,1
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 6,2,1 / 6,2,1 = $6

Race 9 - 1-1/16mi Gallorette G3 TURF - Action+
A - #7 Strathnaver (3-1) - lots of class, closes well - SCRATCHED
B - #3 Somali Lemonade (7/2) - maybe the best in here - WIN $4.80
C - #10 Watsdachances (4-1) - 2ND
D - #9 Starstruck (5-1) - 5TH
E - #6 Lady Ten (10-1) - 7TH

Multi-Race Horses - 7,3,10
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 3,10,9 / 3,10,9 = $6 - HIT $7.00

Race 10 - 1-1/16mi Sir Barton Stakes - Action+
A - #3 Life in Shambles (6-1) - like the early speed and Rosario picking up the mount - 2ND
B - #6 Starry Moon (8-1) - 5TH
C - #10 Class Leader (7/2) - WIN
D - #8 Ground Control (10-1) - is cross entered, may scratch here - SCRATCHED
E - #5 Master Lightning (6-1) - 6TH

Multi-Race Horses - 3,6,10
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 3,6,10 / 3,6,10 = $6 - HIT $11.40

Race 11 - 1-1/16mi Dixie G2 TURF - Action+
A - #3 Charming Kitten (9/2) - has the class and is 3 for 4 at this distance on turf - 4TH
B - #6 Hey Leroy (5/2) - 2ND
C - #7 Chamois (6-1) - 3RD
D - #8 Up With the Birds (5-1) - 6TH
E - #9 Utley (8-1) - WIN

Multi-Race Horses - 3,6,7,8
Suggest Plays:
$0.50 - 3,6 / 3,6 / 7,8,9 = $3
$0.50 - 3,6 / 7,8,9 / 3,6 = $3
$0.50 - 3,6 / 7,8,9 / 7,8,9 = $6

Race 12 - 1-3/16mi Preakness Stakes G1 - Play
A - #3 California Chrome (3/5) - if he breaks clean I still think he is the best horse in the field by a few lengths - WIN $3.00
B - #8 Social Inclusion (5-1) - may be the speed of the speed, time off for foot issue is concern - 3RD
C - #10 Ride On Curlin (10-1) - was closing well in the Ky Derby after a troubled trip, working well - 2ND
D - #5 Bayern (10-1) - gutsy win in Derby Trial, but was Dq'd. did it on bad part of race track - 9TH
E - #2 General a Rod (15-1) - should offer some value and ran some good races on the derby trail - 4TH

Exotics Use:
#7 Kid Cruz (20-1) - hard closer that offers value
#1 Dynamic Impact (12-1) - ran good race in the Illinois Derby

Multi-Race Horses - 3,8 (B - 10,5)
Suggest Plays:
Exacta - $36 play with heavy emphasis on the #3 and #8 in top 2 spots
$3 - 3 / 8 = $3
$2 - 3 / 8,10,5,2 = $8 - HIT $18.20
$1 - 3 / 8,7,1 = $3
$2 - 8 / 3 = $2
$1 - 3,8,10,5,2 / 3,8,10,5,2 = $20 - HIT $9.10

Trifecta - $30.50 play
$1 - 3 / 8,10,5 / 8,10,5 = $6 - HIT $38.00
$1 - 3 / 8,10,5,2 / 8,10,5,2 = $12 - HIT $38.00
$0.50 - 3 / 8,10,5,2 / 7,1 = $4
$0.50 - 3 / 1,7 / 8,10,5,2 = $4
$1 - 8 / 3 / 10,5,2 = $3
$0.50 - 8 / 10,5,2 / 3 = $1.50

Friday, May 16, 2014

5/16 Pimlico - Black Eyed Susan Day Select Races

Preakness Stats Guide
Get ready for the Preakness Stakes with our Preakness Stats Guide. Packed full of stats and analysis to help you include and exclude horses in the second leg of the Triple Crown.

5-16-2014 Black Eyed Susan Day Selections

Pre Scratches.

Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.

Multirace Bets-
Pimlico Special / Preakness Double - $18 play on 3 tickets
$1 - 6,3 / 3,8 = $4 - HIT $6.00
$1 - 6,3,5 / 3,8 = $6 - HIT $6.00
$1 - 6,3 / 3,8,10,5 = $8 - HIT $6.00

Pimlico Special / Dixie / Preakness Pick 3 - $18 play on 4 tickets
$1 - 6,3 / 3,6 / 3,8 = $8
$0.50 - 5 / 3,6 / 3,8 = $2
$0.50 - 6,3 / 7,8 / 3,8 = 4
$0.50 - 6,3 / 3,6 / 10,5 = $4

Race 1 - 1-1/16mi Handicap - Play
A - #6 La Reine's Wager (15-1) - seems to be the only speed in the race, hoping he can hold on at a price - 3RD
B - #5 Love Heart (4/5) - seems much the best from a speed figure standpoint, but has never routed - WIN
C - #3 Smooth Approach (15-1) - owns 3 wins at this distance, hoping he can plod up for a price in the mud - which he should like. - 6TH
D - #1a Will n' Pat (8-1) - always in the money on wet tracks, coupled entry offers value - 2ND

Multi-Race Horses - 6,5
Suggest Plays:
Daily Double - Races 1,2
$3 - 6 / 7 = $3
$1 - 6,5 / 7 = $2
$1 - 6 / 7,5 = $2
$1 - 6,5 / 7,5 = $4

Race 3 - 6f Alw - Action+
A - #4 Big Lute (7/5) - will need to work a trip, but seems best - 4TH
B - #2 Zuerstgold (5-1) - should be the main speed - WIN
C - #3 Graced (4-1) - fits with the top 2 - 2ND
D - #6 Big Blue Talent (5-1) - 3RD
E - #5 Rojo Perfecto (6-1) - 6TH

Multi-Race Horses - 4,2,3
Suggest Plays:

Race 5 - 6f Skipat Stakes- Action
A - #2 Five Star Momma (6-1) - class drops from G2 to non graded stakes, has plenty of speed and owns a win on a wet track - SCRATCHED
B - #6 Munnings Sister (7/2) - class dropping from G2, is the class of the field and likes a wet track, but may scratch - SCRATCHED
C - #3 Lion D N A (12-1) - another class dropper that may like the wet surface, the price looks good too - WIN $11.20
D - #9 Winning Image (4-1) - like the outside post, really like the horse and the 60 something year old Tony Black riding, but seems a cut below top 2 - 3RD
E - #8 Flattering Bea (12-1) - will need some pace, but could plod into the exotics, value - 2ND

Multi-Race Horses - 2,6,3,9
Suggest Plays:
Plays were affected by scratches.

Race 7 - 5f Rollicking - Action+
A - #7 Spanish Pipedream (2-1) - like the post, ran some good fractions in last out on the synthetic - SCRATCHED
B - #5 Bessie's Boy (10-1) - like the last work and shouldn't mind the wet surface -SCRATCHED
C - #6 Hootenanny (5/2) - seems that he could be a contender based on time in last out - 3RD
D - #1 Governmentshutdown (3-1) - posted a good speed figure in last out - WIN

Multi-Race Horses - 7,5,6
Suggest Plays:
Plays were affected by scratches.

Race 9 - 5f Jim McKay Turf Sprint - Play
A - #8 Ben's Cat (7/5) - whether or not this stays on the turf I think he is the best on either surface - WIN $2.80
B - #1 Great Attack (7/2) - another horse who is good on both surfaces - 2ND
C - #3 Bold Thunder (4-1) - has good speed - SCRATCHED
D - #6 Wicked Tune (8-1) - has some class and should sit close to pace - SCRATCHED
E - #7 Spring to the Sky (10-1) - cross entered at Bel - SCRATCHED

Multi-Race Horses - 8
Suggest Plays:
Plays were affected by scratches.

Race 10 - 1-1/8mi Black-Eyed Susan G2 - Action
A - #5 Euphrosyne (4-1) - may go for the lead, has posted some good speed figures, last two starts haven't been that bad - 10TH
B - #4 Stopchargingmaria (7/2) - has run well on a wet track, needs to step forward off last out, but definite win shot - WIN
C - #3 Shanon Nicole (6-1) - fits here, but will need to work a trip from the inside - 8TH
D - #6 Arethusa (8-1) - has been running against much better, but not sure she'll get the pace she needs - 6TH
E - #8 Sloane Square (5-1) - should be up front and shouldn't mind the off going - 9TH

Multi-Race Horses - 5,4,3,6
Suggest Plays:
There will be plenty of value in the Exacta.
$1 - 5,4 / 5,4,3,6 = $6
$1 - 5,4,3,6 / 5,4 = $6

Race 11 - 6f Miss Preakness Stakes - Action+
A - #8 Jojo Warrior (5/2) - comes right back from Eight Belles at Cd, shouldn't mind the wet surface, really like the post, excellent win chance - 3RD
B - #9 Our Lesmis (5-1) - has a win over the wet track, may sit a great trip from the outside post - 7TH
C - #6 Tepin (9/2) - 1st out in 2014, kind of a toss up - 8TH
D - #4 Miss Behaviour (8-1) - 2nd out in 2014 and should offer some value in the exotics, is 2 for 2 at this distance - WIN
E - #5 Tea Time (7/2) - speed and class drops, shouldn't mind the wet going - 4TH

Multi-Race Horses - 8,9,6
Suggest Plays:

Race 12 - 1-3/16 Pimlico Special G3 - Play
A - #6 Revolutionary (5/2) - will not be bothered by the wet going, like the post and ran a good 2nd last out to Will Take Charge - WIN $6.40
B - #3 Moreno (7/2) - will be on the lead, has run well on a wet track, not sure he can hold on at this distance - 4TH
C - #5 Carve (5-1) - ran a good race last out, seems to be moving forward - 7TH
D - #4 Golden Lad (6-1) - ran well in the Razorback on the off going, fits here, but not sure he can get the best of the top 2 - 8TH
E - #8 Prayer for Relief (12-1) - 6 year old will offer some value if he can run himself into the exotics, has a definite shot to do that - 2ND

Multi-Race Horses - 6,3,5
Suggest Plays:
$0.50 - 6,3 / 6,3 / 5,4,8,2,1 = $5
$0.50 - 6,3 / 6,3 / 5,4,8 = $3
$0.50 - 6,3 / 5,4,8,2,1 / 6,3 = $5
$0.50 - 6,3 / 5,4,8 / 5,4,8 = $6

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Preakness Stakes - Stats Guide & Strike System

The Post Position Draw for the Preakness is tonight! Let Big Day Stats help you handicap the Preakness!

Here is what our Preakness Guide Package includes:
Preakness Stats Guide - A Guide full of stats and analysis that will help you include or eliminate horses. See below for a list of the stats included in the guide.

Preakness Supplement Sheets - These are emailed out after the post position draw. They include a list of the horses by post position for the Preakness. Under each horse it shows their Par Rating and trip notes for each prep race, along with my notes on each horse and jockey and trainer stats. All the information referenced in our Stats Guide analysis can be found in these supplement sheets.

Our Preakness Strike System - Emailed out with our Supplement Sheets this is a strike system based on our stats to help you include or exclude horses in for the win category. Using our strike system, horses with 0 or 1 strike have won the Preakness 65% of the time in the last 20 years and produced a 22% ROI (Return on Investment). On average the Preakness field has contained 2.4 horses with 0 or 1 strike.

Purchase our Preakness Stakes Stats Guide Package

Our Preakness Stats Guide includes stats for:
Key Horses for Exotics
Post Position Stats
Winners by Running Style
Average Running Times (Par Times)
Post Time Favorite Stats
Top 4 Finishers by Last Race Finish
Top 4 Finishers by Last Race Track
Average, Low and High Payouts Stats
Average Running Times
Past Winners List that includes Fractional Times
Analysis of the Stats

Our guides also includes a list of the major 2 year old and 3 year old Kentucky Derby qualifying prep races. It shows their average running times for each track condition and their records in the Preakness. As with all of our guides, we show you the stats, give you our analysis and let you decide how use to them.

How to Order
Preakness guide may be purchased for $8.00.

The link below will take you to the Big Day Stats website where you can purchase any of our guides either securely online or by phone. We accept all major credit cards and Paypal.

Purchase our Preakness Stakes Stats Guide Package

If you are unable to access the above link, you may go to www.bigdaystats.com and click on "Stat Guides".

Sunday, May 11, 2014

5/11 Belmont - Man O'War/Westchester Day Races 3,4,6-9

Preakness Stats Guide
Get ready for the Preakness Stakes with our Preakness Stats Guide. Packed full of stats and analysis to help you include and exclude horses in the second leg of the Triple Crown.

5-11-2014 Belmont Park Selections

Pre Scratches - Assuming Turf stays on.

Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.

Race 3 - 1mi Westchester G3 - Play
A - #3 Palace Malice (1/9) - They'd have to load him backwards in the gate and then he'd have to stop and graze on the in field to lose here. Towers over these. - WIN $2.10
B - #2 I'm Steppin' It Up (20-1) - like the early speed, may be the underneath to the Exacta with Palace Malice
C - #4 Red Rifle (8-1) - pretty sure Pletcher entered this one just so the race would fill, but has a shot to run second with the early speed

Multi-Race Horses - 3
Suggest Plays:
$5 - 3 / 2 = $5

Race 4 - 1mi Alw - Play
A - #7 Beeliner (10-1) - appears to be the lone speed, like the price
B - #2 King of Broadway (3-1) - cutting back in distance, will need to workout a trip
C - #3 Celebrator (6/5) - Pletcher horse will be way over bet. Has yet to be tested beyond 6-1/2f. Not willing to take a short price in the win spot on this one, but definitely part of the exotics equation
D - #6 Woelf Den (8-1) - like that he should be forwardly placed and the price, exotics
E - #5 Indy's Illusion (5-1) - may not get the pace setup he'll need to close, exotics maybe

Multi-Race Horses - 7,2
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 7 / 2,3 = $4
$1 - 7 / 6 = $1
$1 - 2,3 / 7 = $2

Race 6 - 6f Clm - Action
A - #6 Mononoke (7/2) - should be forwardly placed and has a good post for style
B - #4 Golden Annie (3-1) - may show some early speed
C - #3 Vinhdication Spot (6-1)
D - #5 Brown Mellisa (5/2)
E - #7 Miss Silver Birch (15-1)

Multi-Race Horses - 6,4,3,5
Suggest Plays:

Race 7 - 6f License Fee 100K TURF - Action+
A - #9 Free as a Bird (3-1) - like the early speed against the rest in here - WIN $5.00
B - #10 Madame Giry (5/2) - closes very well, is 2 of 4 at Belmont and 3 for 3 at this distance, very likely
C - #3 Believe in Charlie (5-1) - has good records at Belmont and this distance, will need to work a trip
D - #5 Coarsegold (9/2) - exotics use
E - #7 Bridgehampton (6-1) - has no turf experience, but that is what intrigues me, she has some pedigree that suggest she'll like it. Not sure what to make of her, so I'll say exotics use

Multi-Race Horses - 9,10,3
Suggest Plays:

Race 8 - 1mi Ruffian G2 - Play
A - #6 Fiftyshadesofhay (2-1) - I like the way she is coming into this race off the pace duel last out and shortening up. She won the Black Eyed Susan while stalking, so she doesn't need the lead to win - WIN $5.40
B - #2 My Wandy's Girl (7/2) - numbers fit, should sit close to pace, but will need to work a trip
C - #5 Grace Hall (5/2) - 1st out in 2014, she's a big question mark, but I'm going to wait on her and just consider her for exotics use
D - #1 Six Queens (4-1) - exotics use
E - #4 Toasting (8-1) - exotics use

Multi-Race Horses - 5,2
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 6 / 2 / 5,1,4 = $6
$1 - 2 / 6 / 5,1,4 = $3
$0.50 - 6,2 / 5,1,4 / 6,2 = $3 - HIT $13.25
$0.50 - 6,2 / 5,1,4 / 5,1,4 = $6

Race 9 - 1-3/8mi Man O' War G1 TURF - Play
A - #5 Amira's Prince (5/2) - seems like he maybe sitting on top of a good race, is 2 for 2 at this distance, like the post and running style and always mixes it up at the end
B - #2 Imaging (5-1) - is 4 of 7 on the Belmont turf, numbers fit here, but he'll need some pace ahead of him
C - #6 Real Solution (3-1) - another one that a little bit of pace would help, don't see him winning, but exotics possible
D - #1 Grandeur (4-1) - always like the "across the pond" angle, has sported several turf wins, but not sure how he fits amongst this group, still I would not leave him out of my exotic plays
E - #4 Frac Daddy (15-1) - may be a couple steps below these, but he does figure to sit close in a race with very little pace and his price would boost the exotics for sure

Multi-Race Horses - 5,2
Suggest Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 5,2 / 5,2 = $4
$1 - 5,2 / 5,2,6,1,4 = $8 - HIT $17.80
-OR-
Trifecta
$1 - 5,2 / 5,2 / 6,1,4 = $6
$0.50 - 5,2 / 6,1,4 / 5,2 = $3
$0.50 - 5,2 / 6,1,4 / 6,1,4 = $6 - HIT $33.50

Money On The Nose