Oaklawn Park 2-17-2014 - Southwest Stakes Grade 3

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Updated for Scratches 12:25pm.
 
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - can usually key A & B horses in exotics.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.



Race 9 - 1-1/16mi Southwest Stakes Grade 3 - Action
A - #2 Tapiture (3-1) - fits a some of the stats criteria well - ran above average in last out and won last out, needs to fire fresh here.  Asmussen can have them ready and I expect they would like to see a good race for him to move on.
B - #8 Ride On Curlin (6-1) - win last out and has run decently well in the past, needs to step up from last out
C - #5 Kendall's Boy (12-1) - nice win on the lead last out, but is really taking a jump in distance, exotics
D - #7 Strong Mandate (2-1) - is vulnerable favorite, past races are below par, needs a step forward to win, but never count out Lukas
E - #1 Tanzanite Cat (8-1) - distance test after last out win at a mile

Important Stats:
In the last 20 years the post time favorite has won 50% of the time, that is well above the average.  Also, horses that won their previous starts have an 80% win rate.  That eliminates 5 horses out of this race from the win category.  Horses that won their previous starts have finished in the Trifecta %57 of the time. 

Multi-Race Horses - 2,8,5
Suggest Plays: