Fountain of Youth & Risen Star Above 102 Runners

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Updated 11:00am EST.
 
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - can usually key A & B horses in exotics.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.



Fair Grounds Race 11 - Risen Star G2 - Action
A - #2 Rise Up (4-1) - like the post and win at this distance, 60% Risen Star winners won their previous start and he ran a 105 par rating in the Ded Jackpot which makes him a good Trifecta Key.
B - #8 Intense Holiday (8-1) - ran 107 par rating in the Holy Bull which makes him a good Trifecta prospect based on the stats, but that surface must have been really fast, still Smith & Pletcher are 27%.  Could be threat if speed collapses.
C - #9 Hoppertunity (8-1) - won last out with a good beyer, will need to stretch it out.  had trouble 2 back, but work times look good for Baffert and drawn outside he may avoid some traffic.  Garcia & Baffert are 26%.
D - #Vicar's in Trouble (5/2) - may get hung really wide and outside post do not have good finishes here.  still you have to respect the beyer #'s, the 104 par rating in the LeComte makes him a good Trifecta prospect.  He is 2 for 2 at Fg.
E - #11 Quick Indian (20-1) - is definitely a horse for course with 2 out of 2 wins at Fg and 2 for 3 at this distance.  like that he was still a maiden when he beat more experience OC 50KN1X.  Value. 

Other Horses to Use in Exotics:
#1 Albano (12-1) - horse for course 2 for 3 at Fg, faded last out, but has a bullet since.
#6 Gold Hawk (8-1) - some trouble in recent starts, would need a step forward, but definitely has exotics possibility.

Important Stats:
12 times a horse that has run a par rating of 102 or higher in any previous Kentucky Derby prep race has finished in the Trifecta. This may not seem significant until you consider that in only 15 of the last 20 years has the Risen Star field contained horses that fit this criteria. That means 80% of the time when the Risen Star field had a horse or horses that met this criteria they occupied at least on spot in the Trifecta. And, from those 15 years, there was only an average of 1.5 horses that fit this criteria in each race. This makes them great key horses. The average $2 Trifecta payout from the 12 years where one of these horses ran in the Trifecta is $886.45.  4 times there have been 2 or more horses that fit this criteria in the Risen Star.  3 of those 4 years at least 2 of these horses finished in the Trifecta.

Horses that fit this criteria are:
#2 Rise Up - ran a 105 in the Delta Downs Jackpot
#9 Intense Holiday - ran a 107 in the Holy Bull
#14 Vicar's in Trouble - ran a 104 in the LeComte

Multi-Race Horses - 2,8,9,14

Suggest Plays:
I think the Trifecta will pay decently well so I'm looking at several $0.50 plays to try to take advantage of the above stat.  I think #2 is the best key horse.
$0.50 - 2 / 8,9,14,11 / 8,9,14,11 = $6
$0.50 - 8,9,14,11 / 2 / 8,9,14,11 = $6
$0.50 - 8,9,14,11 / 8,9,14,11 / 2 = $6
$0.50 - 2 / 8,9,14,11 / 1,6 = $4
$0.50 - 2 / 1,6 / 8,9,14,11 = $4
$0.50 - 8,9,14,11 / 2 / 1,6 = $4
Total - $30 play




Gulfstream Race 11 - Fountain of Youth G2 - Action
A - #4 Wildcat Red(6-1) - horse for course with 3 wins and 2 seconds out of 5 starts.  80% of the last 20 winners ran 1st or 2nd in their previous start.  Like the inside post in this configuration.
B - #1 Commissioner (3-1) - post 1 has the most top 4 finishes.  has won at Gp and it appears this is Pletcher's "A" horse in this race.  showed last out he can run.
C - #9 Best Plan Yet (20-1) - is one of two horses that ran above a 102 par rating in a previous Ky Derby prep race.  81% of the time those horses occupy at least one spot int the Trifecta.  He ran a 106 in the Holy Bull.
D - #8 Almost Famous (10-1) - ran a 106 par rating in the Holy Bull.  But wins have come only on the lead.
E - #12 Top Billing (7/2) - good horse, but is really up against it having to start from this post position.  will get hung wide into first turn.  exotics.

Other Horses to Use in Exotics:
#5 General Rod (5-1) - has run well in past, esp. at Gp
#7 C. Zee (12-1) - has always been in the exacta at GP

Important Stats:
13 times a horse that has run a par rating of 102 or higher in any previous Kentucky Derby prep race has finished in the Trifecta. This may not seem significant until you consider that in only 16 of the last 20 years has the Fountain of Youth field contained horses that fit this criteria. That means 81% of the time when the Fountain of Youth field had a horse or horses that met this criteria they occupied at least on spot in the Trifecta. And, from those 16 years, the field contained an average of only 1.9 horses that fit this criteria. This makes them great key horses. The average $2 Trifecta payout from the 13 years where one of these horses ran in the Trifecta
was $679.13.

Horses that fit this criteria are:
#9 Best Plan Yet - ran a 106 in the Holy Bull
#8 Almost Famous - ran a 106 in the Holy Bull

Multi-Race Horses - 4,1,9,8

Suggest Plays:
$0.50 - 4,1 / 4,1 / 9,8,12 = $3
$0.50 - 4,1 / 9,8,12 / 4,1 = $3
$0.50 - 4,1 / 9,8,12 / 9,8,12 = $6
$0.50 - 4,1 / 4,1,8,9,12 / 7,5 = $8
Total - $20 Play