Oaklawn Park 4-13-2013 - Arkansas Derby Day Races 7-10

Updated for Scratches & Plays 1:30pm EST.

Card Notes- 
Looking at the Pick 4 races 7-10 and Pick 3 races 8-10.  Also, I didn't have time to write why I like or disliked each of my top 5.

My Race Rating System-   
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race.  Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet.  Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.  Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single.  Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets

Multirace Bets-
Pick 4 - Races 7-10
$0.50 - 5,7,6,1 / 9 / 5,3,2,4 / 10,2 = $16

Pick 3 - Races 8-10 - to be played as backup to Pick4
$0.50 - 9 / 5,3 / 10,2 = $2
$0.50 - 4,5,1 / 5,3 / 10,2 = $6
$0.50 - 9 / 5,3,2,4 / 10,2 = $4
$0.50 - 9 / 5,3,2 / 5,4,9 = $4.50  


Race 7 - 1 mile Northern Spur Stakes - Action
A - #5 Get Happy Mister (6-1) - could be lone speed
B - #7 Holiday Mischief (9/2)
C - #6 Looking Cool (5/2)
D - #1 Malibu High (4-1)
E - #3 Bemata (8-1)

Multi-Race Horses-
A - 5,7,6
B - 1

Race Notes-


Suggested Plays:
 


Race 8 - 1-1/8 miles Oaklawn Handicap G2 - Play
A - #9 Fort Larned (7/5) - if he's ok from last out, should handle these
B - #4 Atigun (9/2) - this guy just hangs around at the end, exotics
C - #5 Alternation (9/2) - was not on his game last out, this start should tell a lot, hard knocker, love this guy
D - #1 Cyber Secret (5-1) - good win last out, but I think he's running for second, will need to work trip
E - #6 Golden Ron (20-1)

Value/Deep Exotics Use-
#2 Unstoppable U (15-1) - feel the need to cover him in the 3rd spot

Multi-Race Horses-
A - 9
B - 4,5,1

Race Notes-

Suggested Plays: 
$0.50 - 9 / 4,5,1 / 4,5,1 = $3
$0.50 - 9 / 4,5,1,6 / 4,5,1,6 = $6
$0.50 - 9 / 4,5,1,6 / 2 = $2 - saver on #2 running 3rd



Race 9 - 6f Count Fleet Sprint Handicap G3 - Action
A - #5 Flashpoint (7/2) - 50% win at distance, would love to see him sit just behind speed
B - #3 Justin Phillip (7/5) - tends to be a money burner in win category, win chance but prefer to use in exotics
C - #2 Apprehender (6-1) - speed, likes distance
D - #4 Laurie's Rocket (7/2)
E - #1 Gentlemen's Bet (8-1) - another speed horse, likes Oak and distance, maybe a cut below here

Multi-Race Horses-
5,3,2,4

Race Notes-


Suggested Plays:



Race 10 - 1-1/8 miles Arkansas Derby G1 - Play
A - #10 Oxbow (5/2) - has run some good races lately, no loss in jock change
B - #2 War Academy (2-1) - a Baffert horse moving fwd, could drill these
C - #5 Den's Legacy (6-1) - loves to keep plodding along and hang around at end, exotics
D - #4 Falling Sky (10-1) - really needs to right the ship here, like workout, may be looking the lead, capable
E - #9 Overanalyze (4-1) - another one who needs a turn around, but may still be better than rest

Multi-Race Horses-
10,2

Race Notes-
I went smaller on multirace horses and hope form holds true.

Suggested Plays:
$2 - 10,2 / 10,2 = $4
$1 - 10,2 / 5,4,9 = $6 
- OR -
$0.50 - 10,2 / 10,2 / 5,4,9 = $3
$0.50 - 10,2 / 10,2,5,4,9 / 10,2,5,4,9 = $12