As with any of my Kentucky Derby watchlist it is very important to continue to hear what Mike Welsch and the other clockers say leading up to the Derby. I'll update the list again after next weekend as well as post a Kentucky Oaks list. Next to the Breeders' Cup, I love this time of year!
Top 5
Revolutionary - Has been my top prospect all along. I've loved the gameness in all his races and the announcement of Calvin fits his style. Mike Welsch really liked his 4-21-2012 workout of a 1/2 mile in 48-3/5 seconds, with his final 1/4 in 23-2/5 seconds. Welsch thought he was the better of the two Pletcher workers which included Verrazano. He'll need to workout a trip, but works suggest he's ready.
Orb - He is working great and is probably the most likely contender, though he may not be favored on the morning line, he'll be a close second. Welsch didn't see his work but did talk in Shug who was really happy with it.
Goldencents - I haven't heard anything his works, but I'm not willing to through him out on the distance question after his 1-1/8 mile victory in the Santa Anita Handicap. Also, he'll probably own the highest beyer number entering the Kentucky Derby and likely a beyer that would win this Derby.
Normandy Invasion - Loved the way he was closing in the Wood Memorial. Welsch said he came out of his 4-21 workout showing good energy in just 48 hrs and was the star of the show galloping. He was full of himself all the way around with high energy. Looks like a live contender for sure.
Oxbow - Cross a line through his Arkansas Derby and count on it, Gary Stevens learned from that outing. Mike Welsch said he galloped on 4-21 with a high energy level, pick up in momentum down the stretch and a handful to pull up. Then he worked 5f in 1:00 4/5 on 4-22 with a high energy level and was a hand full to pull up again finishing with his ears pricked. With the poor showing last out, this could be a great under the radar horse.
Others to Watch/Exotic Horses
Verrazano - Moved him out of my top 5 to include Oxbow. I still have a serious amount of respect for this horse, but I'm not sure I want him at the short price he'll be. But, I'll definitely include him in my multirace bets. He's undefeated and showed he could hold a horse off at his last out, but I'm just not sure that a few of these maybe better in the final few furlongs of the Derby. Mike Welsch was not as impressed with his workout than Revolutionary's saying that he had to be asked to keep up with the workmate in the gallop out.
Itsmyluckday - Is out of sight, out of mind right now, but if he runs back to his beyers he'll be right in the mix. Eddie Plesa is very happy and if he works well he could land himself squarely in the top 5. Very dangerous.
Overanalyze - Though the Arkansas Derby was slow, I liked the way in closed from a few lengths off the pace and drew off to win striding out. Just waiting to hear some workout reports.
Frac Daddy - Horse seems to be turning thing around with his second in the Arkansas Derby and Welsch said his 4-22 gallop was "very impressive". It was a gallop that was just short of a work and looks really good, training better than he trained at Gulfstream. He's peaking and do really well right now. Welsch went on to say that "Whether he is good enough, I'm not sure, but if you knew nothing of
these horses and came to watch this horse would be on your short list for sure." Now, that says something about his improvement.
Will Take Charge - Is training up to the Derby following his win in the Rebel. Not sure what Lukas has up his sleeve on this one.
Longshots
Mylute - This guy could fly completely under the radar. Welsch said he settled well and finished his final 1/4 in 23-1/5 seconds. A good second to Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby and Revolutionary his working well has complimented that win with a good recent work. A definite horse to watch.
Java's War - This horse could very well plod his way into the exotics.
Black Onyx - Welsch said this guy has completely righted the ship and turned around since being moved to Kelly Breen. Probably not good enough to win, but he sure would help the exotic prices.
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