Updated for Scratches.
Pick 4 Races 6,7,8,9 - Post Time 3:37pm
Pick 3 Races 7,8,9 - Post Time 4:07pm
I've
given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In
some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my
winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 6 - 1mi OC - Action
Recap: I thought the #4 lost his chance when we stumbled out of the gate, but he still didn't fire later. #6 Mr Hall's Opus was very stubborn to wear down foe for win.
A - #4 Hello Now (8-1) - like the speed shown last out, notes show game horse, sire
B - #5 Amelia Mar (3-1) - has won at distance, ships from Mth
C - #6 Mr Hall's Opus (2-1) - closed last out, added ground may help, ships from Mth - Winner
D - #3 Off My Cloud (6-1) - class drop, could complete trifecta - Second
E - #1 Precious Franca (9/2) - class drop - Third
Suggested Plays:
$2 - Win #4
Pick 4 - Races 6,7,8,9
Winning Ticket 6 / 9 / 1 / 9
$0.50 - 4,5,6 / 3,9,6 / 5,2 / 6,9 = $18
- OR -
$0.50 - 4,5,6 / 3,9,6 / 5,2,6 / 6,9 = $27
- OR -
$0.50 - 4,5,6 / 3,9,6 / 5,2,6 / 6,9,4 = $40.50
Race 7 - 1-1/16mi OC TURF - Action
Recap: S. Russell is always extremely dangerous on the turf. Utley had to find room in the stretch to run, but once he did he quickly ran down the leader. #3 Mr. Irons just left himself too much to do considering the pace.
A - #3 Mr. Irons (9/2) - good closing effort last out against better, plenty of speed here for style
B - #9 Utley (3-1) - closes well, back to turf after dirt last out, should get a good trip, S. Russell on the turf - Winner
C - #2 Followmyfootsteps (5-1) - has got speed, lots of class, worried will get pressed - Second
D - #1 Noll Wallop (6-1) - can close, definitely could mix it up in the exotics
E - #6 Raconteur (12-1) - a huge question mark here, 1st turf try and adds blinkers
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 3,9/3,9 = $4
$1 - 3,9/2,1,6 = $6 Hit $25.70
- OR -
$1 - 3,9/3,9/2,1,6 = $6
$1 - 3,9/2,1,6/3,9,2 = $10
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
Winning Ticket 9 / 1 / 9
$0.50 - 3,9,6 / 5,2 / 6,9 = $6
- OR -
$0.50 - 3,9,6 / 5,2,6 / 6,9,4 = $13.50
Race 8 - 7f OC - Play
Recap: I try not to harp on Jockeys too much, but Castellano lost this race for #5 My Charming Clyde. It looked like he thought he had the race won at the top of the stretch. Instead of cutting the corner he floated out and that allowed #1 Private Tale to slip to his inside and by the time Castellano noticed him Private Tale already had a head in front. If Private Tale had been forced to go outside then My Charming Clyde could very well have won. There are a lot of was to lose a race, but I don't give an experienced jockey a free pass when he floats out and lets a horse slide through on the inside - that is simple geometry!
A - #5 My Charming Clyde (2-1) - This horse should get a perfect trip from this post - Second
B - #2 Malibu Kid (7/2) - Could be lone speed in race
C - #6 Hop Skip and Away (12-1) - Class drop and may provide some value in race
D - #1 Private Tale (3-1) - Winner
E - #3 Homeboykris (4-1)
Suggested Plays:
$4 - 5/2,6 = $8
$2 -2,6/5 = $4
$1 - 5/1 = $1
- OR -
$1 - 5/2,6/2,6,3 = $4
$1 - 5/2,6,1/2,6,1,3 = $9
$2 - 2,6/5 = $4
Race 9 - 1mi Claiming TURF - Play
Recap: Someone forgot to tell #5 All for Peace he was 97-1. The speed didn't collapse as much as I was hoping.
A - #6 Safety Valve (5/2) - class drop, lots of class vs these, like the inside post, 2nd off layoff - Third
B - #9 Great Harbour (6/5) - could be lone speed, but no value at 6/5, could be wide on 1st turn - Winner
C - #4 Wotan (8-1) - good closer, but lack of pace could hurt
D - #3 Nightscape (20-1) - could get into Trifecta
E - #8 Artic Cry (12-1)
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 6,9/6,9 = $4
$2 - 6/4 = $2
$1 - 9/4 = $1
$1 - 6,9/8 = $2
- OR -
$1 - 6,9/6,9,4/6,9,4,3,8 = $12
$1 - 6,9/3,8/6,9,4 = $8
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Laurel Park - Wed 9-26-2012 Selections Pick 4 (Races 6-9)
Updated for scratches.
Pick 4 Races 6,7,8,9 - Post Time 3:37pm
Pick 3 Races 7,8,9 - Post Time 4:07pm
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 6 - 7f Claiming - Action Post Time 3:37pm
A - #1 Roman's Touch - like the early speed - Second
B - #3 St John's Gospel - My handicapping instinct tells me this is a poor play, I don't like the notes from the last start. But if he runs back to past starts he is easily best. - Winner
C - #7 Patrol Leader - can close - Third
D - #5 Risky Red
E - #4 Evening Concerto
Suggest Plays:
Pick 4 - Races 6,7,8,9
$0.50 - 1,3,7,5 / 3,8,9 / 6,7 / 9,4,1-1a = $36
- OR -
$0.50 - 1,3,7,5 / 3,8,9 / 6,7,4 / 9,4,1-1a = $54
Also, you may want to play $0.50 - 1,3 / 3,8 / 6,7 / 9,4 = $8. This will add some value if some of the favorites win.
Race 7 - 5-1/2f OC TURF - Action
A - #3 Greek Warrior - 2nd off layoff, should move forward, good early speed - Winner $5.40
B - #8 Count Catamount - ships in from much classier tracks, has early speed, bad break last out - Second
C - #9 Jake Rattle N Roll - closes well, 15 of 23 in money atdistance, chance if speed collapses
D - #2 True to Tradition - 2 for 2 at Lrl, 18-25 in money at distance - Third
E - #1 Royal HIll - drops in class, has won at Lrl on the turf, shortening up
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 3,8/3,8 = $4 Hit $14.00
$1 - 3,8/9 = $2
$1 - 9/3,8 = $2
- OR -
$1 - 3,8/3,8,9/3,8,9,2,1 = $12 Hit $22.50
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$0.50 - 3,8,9 / 6,7,4 / 9,4,1-1a = $13.50
Race 8 - 6f OC - Play
A - #6 Speeding Spike - really good early speed, class drop, 4 of 9 wins at distance - Second
B - #7 More Than a Reason - Mth shippers 30% win at Lrl, 63% in money, should get a good trip
C - #4 Regal Revenge - class drop, good speed
D - #3 Escort - really fits here, but seems to be regressing and in for tag for Ness, class drop - Third
E - #1 Wolfcamp - class drop, runs well at distance, but maybe a cut below best - Winner
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 6/7,4 = $4
$1 - 6/3,1 = $2
$2 - 7/6 = $2
$1 - 7/4,3 = $2
- OR -
$1 - 6,7/6,7,4/6,7,4,3,1 = $12
$1 - 6,7/3 = $2
Race 9 - 1-1/16mi Md Sp Wght TURF - Action
A - #9 Why Not More - horse has run well at distances, closes well, should get a good trip
B - #4 Golden Rock - interesting that A. Dutrow ships here and secures Russell. Dutrow .38% 2nd off over 180 days
C - #1a Smart Cash - closes well - Winner
D - #8 Passionate Gold - ships in from classier tracks and solid trainer, but still maybe a cut below - Third
E - #1 La Flamme - Cnl shippers win a smaller % here, but I like the speed flashed last out and not much speed in here
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 9/4,1-1a, 8 = $3
$1 - 4/9,1-1a = $2
Pick 4 Races 6,7,8,9 - Post Time 3:37pm
Pick 3 Races 7,8,9 - Post Time 4:07pm
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 6 - 7f Claiming - Action Post Time 3:37pm
A - #1 Roman's Touch - like the early speed - Second
B - #3 St John's Gospel - My handicapping instinct tells me this is a poor play, I don't like the notes from the last start. But if he runs back to past starts he is easily best. - Winner
C - #7 Patrol Leader - can close - Third
D - #5 Risky Red
E - #4 Evening Concerto
Suggest Plays:
Pick 4 - Races 6,7,8,9
$0.50 - 1,3,7,5 / 3,8,9 / 6,7 / 9,4,1-1a = $36
- OR -
$0.50 - 1,3,7,5 / 3,8,9 / 6,7,4 / 9,4,1-1a = $54
Also, you may want to play $0.50 - 1,3 / 3,8 / 6,7 / 9,4 = $8. This will add some value if some of the favorites win.
Race 7 - 5-1/2f OC TURF - Action
A - #3 Greek Warrior - 2nd off layoff, should move forward, good early speed - Winner $5.40
B - #8 Count Catamount - ships in from much classier tracks, has early speed, bad break last out - Second
C - #9 Jake Rattle N Roll - closes well, 15 of 23 in money atdistance, chance if speed collapses
D - #2 True to Tradition - 2 for 2 at Lrl, 18-25 in money at distance - Third
E - #1 Royal HIll - drops in class, has won at Lrl on the turf, shortening up
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 3,8/3,8 = $4 Hit $14.00
$1 - 3,8/9 = $2
$1 - 9/3,8 = $2
- OR -
$1 - 3,8/3,8,9/3,8,9,2,1 = $12 Hit $22.50
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$0.50 - 3,8,9 / 6,7,4 / 9,4,1-1a = $13.50
Race 8 - 6f OC - Play
A - #6 Speeding Spike - really good early speed, class drop, 4 of 9 wins at distance - Second
B - #7 More Than a Reason - Mth shippers 30% win at Lrl, 63% in money, should get a good trip
C - #4 Regal Revenge - class drop, good speed
D - #3 Escort - really fits here, but seems to be regressing and in for tag for Ness, class drop - Third
E - #1 Wolfcamp - class drop, runs well at distance, but maybe a cut below best - Winner
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 6/7,4 = $4
$1 - 6/3,1 = $2
$2 - 7/6 = $2
$1 - 7/4,3 = $2
- OR -
$1 - 6,7/6,7,4/6,7,4,3,1 = $12
$1 - 6,7/3 = $2
Race 9 - 1-1/16mi Md Sp Wght TURF - Action
A - #9 Why Not More - horse has run well at distances, closes well, should get a good trip
B - #4 Golden Rock - interesting that A. Dutrow ships here and secures Russell. Dutrow .38% 2nd off over 180 days
C - #1a Smart Cash - closes well - Winner
D - #8 Passionate Gold - ships in from classier tracks and solid trainer, but still maybe a cut below - Third
E - #1 La Flamme - Cnl shippers win a smaller % here, but I like the speed flashed last out and not much speed in here
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 9/4,1-1a, 8 = $3
$1 - 4/9,1-1a = $2
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
Post Pa Derby Thoughts...
No matter who you liked in the Pa Derby I though it was a great betting race. The prices where there in the Exacta's which almost always means there's a lot of value in the other exotics. Against these, Alpha was certainly a deserving favorite after his two performances at Saratoga, but he was also vulnerable favorite. I thought it looked like he was regressing some in the Travers. Looking for someone to beat him I sided with Macho Macho. I used Handsome Mike in my exotics, but only underneath in the Place and Show spots.
Hats off to Handsome Mike for a well run race, but I think on Alpha's best day he could still run away from these. He was a little rank, broke slow, then seemed to rush up and then determinedly stayed on the inside part of the Parx track, which I do not like. I don't think he'll win the BC Classic, but I would not bet against him in the future soley because of this race. Macho Macho gave a good showing while running a solid race, but he just couldn't run down Handsome Mike. It will be very interesting to see how these move forward from here!
I am going to try to play the late Pick 4 at Laurel on Wednesday the 26th. I'll post the selections here.
Hats off to Handsome Mike for a well run race, but I think on Alpha's best day he could still run away from these. He was a little rank, broke slow, then seemed to rush up and then determinedly stayed on the inside part of the Parx track, which I do not like. I don't think he'll win the BC Classic, but I would not bet against him in the future soley because of this race. Macho Macho gave a good showing while running a solid race, but he just couldn't run down Handsome Mike. It will be very interesting to see how these move forward from here!
I am going to try to play the late Pick 4 at Laurel on Wednesday the 26th. I'll post the selections here.
Thursday, September 20, 2012
Laurel Park - Thursday 9-20-2012 Selections (Pick 4 Races 6-9)
Updated for scratches. Start of Pick 4 race 6 post time 3:37pm.
This pick 4 sequence is tough. I've listed a couple of different ticket options depending on how deep you want to go.
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 6 - 1mi Claiming - Weak
A - #8 Voce Del Leone (5-1) - Winner $9.40
B - #3 Trappist Monk (6-1)
C - #13 Caldo Cat (9/2)
D - #9 Anzio Adam (12-1) - Second
E - #4 Quatorze Royalty (4-1)
Suggested Plays:
Pick 4 - Races 6,7,8,9
Winning Ticket - 8 / 5 / 4 / 6
$0.50 - 8,3,13 / 4,5 / 2,9 / 6,10,14 = $18
- OR -
$0.50 - 8,3,13 / 4,5 / 2,9,4 / 6,10,14 = $27 - Hit $245.35
- OR -
$0.50 - 8,3,13 / 4,5,3 / 2,9,4 / 6,10,14,11 = $54 - Hit $245.35
- OR -
$0.50 - 8,3,13 / 4,5,3 / 2,9,4 / 6,10,14,11,4 = $67.5 - Hit $245.35
I'd play the $18 or $27 bet. As wide open as a few of these races are, I'm not sure it is worth the risk by putting more money into it.
Race 7 - 5-1/2f OC - Action
A - #4 Private Tour (3-1) - Has early speed, like post for running style, good speed #'s
B - #5 Hamp (4-1) - Woodbine shipper, good speed #'s, back to preferred surface - Winner
C - #3 Gas Tank (7/2) - Back to best surface, Cnl maiden break was very impressive, early speed - Second
D - #2 Video Store (5/2) - No turf experience, but has proven can run and nice work pattern, coming off layoff
E - #6 Over and Back (10-1) - No turf experience, good 1st claim %, shipping from good track, early speed - Third
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4,5/4,5,3,2 = $6 - Hit $23.90
Race 8 - 1mi Claiming - Play
A - #2 Forever Tango (7/2) - Like the speed, may get uncontested lead, good wins at distance, class drop
B - #9 Sweet N Nutty (3-1) - Nice post for running style, ships from classier tracks, 6-7 in money at distance, class drop - Second
C - #4 Carrietta (4-1) - Will need some pace help, class drop, good speed #'s, likes Lrl - Winner
D - #5 Italian Nany (5/2) - 33% at distance, but maybe a cut below
E - #1 Cambria Queen (8-1) - 3-6 in money at distance, but maybe a cut below as well
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 2,9/2,9,4/2,9,4,5,1 = $12
$1 - 4/2,9 = $2 - Hit $14.10
Race 9 - 5-1/2 Claiming - Action
A - #6 Emma's Kiss (5-1) - Ness goes to great turf rider, jockey/trainer 35%, nice class drop - Winner $8.60
B - #10 Just Christina (4-1) - always runs well, good speed #'s, like the early speed - Second
C - #14 Shanana (15-1) - good class drop and speed #'s, wide is a concern
D - #11 Grazezing (8-1) - class drop, good speed #'s, should sit close, good post for style
E - #4 Trixie Minor (9/2) - good turf 3's, but the 81 was earned while on the lead, 1stw/trn 27%, chance if speed fails
Suggested Plays:
$2 - Win #6 - Hit $8.60
This pick 4 sequence is tough. I've listed a couple of different ticket options depending on how deep you want to go.
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 6 - 1mi Claiming - Weak
A - #8 Voce Del Leone (5-1) - Winner $9.40
B - #3 Trappist Monk (6-1)
C - #13 Caldo Cat (9/2)
D - #9 Anzio Adam (12-1) - Second
E - #4 Quatorze Royalty (4-1)
Suggested Plays:
Pick 4 - Races 6,7,8,9
Winning Ticket - 8 / 5 / 4 / 6
$0.50 - 8,3,13 / 4,5 / 2,9 / 6,10,14 = $18
- OR -
$0.50 - 8,3,13 / 4,5 / 2,9,4 / 6,10,14 = $27 - Hit $245.35
- OR -
$0.50 - 8,3,13 / 4,5,3 / 2,9,4 / 6,10,14,11 = $54 - Hit $245.35
- OR -
$0.50 - 8,3,13 / 4,5,3 / 2,9,4 / 6,10,14,11,4 = $67.5 - Hit $245.35
I'd play the $18 or $27 bet. As wide open as a few of these races are, I'm not sure it is worth the risk by putting more money into it.
Race 7 - 5-1/2f OC - Action
A - #4 Private Tour (3-1) - Has early speed, like post for running style, good speed #'s
B - #5 Hamp (4-1) - Woodbine shipper, good speed #'s, back to preferred surface - Winner
C - #3 Gas Tank (7/2) - Back to best surface, Cnl maiden break was very impressive, early speed - Second
D - #2 Video Store (5/2) - No turf experience, but has proven can run and nice work pattern, coming off layoff
E - #6 Over and Back (10-1) - No turf experience, good 1st claim %, shipping from good track, early speed - Third
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4,5/4,5,3,2 = $6 - Hit $23.90
Race 8 - 1mi Claiming - Play
A - #2 Forever Tango (7/2) - Like the speed, may get uncontested lead, good wins at distance, class drop
B - #9 Sweet N Nutty (3-1) - Nice post for running style, ships from classier tracks, 6-7 in money at distance, class drop - Second
C - #4 Carrietta (4-1) - Will need some pace help, class drop, good speed #'s, likes Lrl - Winner
D - #5 Italian Nany (5/2) - 33% at distance, but maybe a cut below
E - #1 Cambria Queen (8-1) - 3-6 in money at distance, but maybe a cut below as well
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 2,9/2,9,4/2,9,4,5,1 = $12
$1 - 4/2,9 = $2 - Hit $14.10
Race 9 - 5-1/2 Claiming - Action
A - #6 Emma's Kiss (5-1) - Ness goes to great turf rider, jockey/trainer 35%, nice class drop - Winner $8.60
B - #10 Just Christina (4-1) - always runs well, good speed #'s, like the early speed - Second
C - #14 Shanana (15-1) - good class drop and speed #'s, wide is a concern
D - #11 Grazezing (8-1) - class drop, good speed #'s, should sit close, good post for style
E - #4 Trixie Minor (9/2) - good turf 3's, but the 81 was earned while on the lead, 1stw/trn 27%, chance if speed fails
Suggested Plays:
$2 - Win #6 - Hit $8.60
Saturday, September 15, 2012
Laurel Park - Saturday 9-15-2012 Selections
Updated for Scratches.
Pick 3 - Races 4,5,6 - Play listed in race 4.
Pick 5 - Races 6,7,8,9,10 - Play listed in race 6.
Pick 4 - Races 7,8,9,10 - Play listed in race 7.
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
First Post 1:10pm
Race 1 - 7f Maiden Claiming - Play
A - #2 Cu Soonerthanlater (5-1) - Has potential to get an easy lead - Second
B - #3 Aviation Show (8/5) - Class drop, good speed #'s, but didn't like notes from last out - Winner
C - #6 Love Hero (7/2) - was wide last out and closed gap, like trainer #'s - Third
D - #4 Running Game (6-1)
E - #7 Pounce Into Spring (10-1)
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 2,3/2,3 = $4 - Hit $8.80
$1 - 2,6/2,6 = $2
Race 2 - 1-1/16mi Alw - Action
A - #4 Tappinintovictory (9/5) - good speed and speed #'s, class drop, in money 6-10 at this distance - Winner $3.40
B - #1 Smiling Jordan (5/2) - good speed #'s, class drop and likes Laurel - Third
C - #3 Albrecht (3-1) - Has some speed, in money 12-15 at this distance - Second
D - #5 Warrensburg (8-1) - a good closer
E - #6 Siegfried (6-1) - a good closer
Suggested Plays:
With a lot of Play races on the card you may want to skip this one.
$1 - 4,1/4,1 = $2
$1 - 4/3,5 = $2 - Hit $6.20
Race 4 - 5-1/2f Claiming - Play
A - #1a Graysonia (2-1) - Third
B - #5 Bellissima Luna (5/2) - Winner
C - #4 Love to the Max (6-1) - Second
D - #3 Access Love (4-1)
E - #6 Daddyroe (6-1)
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 1a,5/1a,5 = $4
$1 - 1a/4 = $1
- OR -
$1 - 1a,5/1a,5,4/1a,5,4,3,6 = $12 - Hit $63.40
Pick 3 - Races 4,5,6
$0.50 - 1a,5 / 6,10,1 / 2,3,6 = $9
Race 5 - 5-1/2f OC TURF- Play
A - #6 Carole's Love (4-1) - Really like the early speed at this distance at Laurel, class drop
B - #10 Magical Merry (5-1) - Good speed #'s, should get good stalking trip from post, class drop - Third
C - #1 High Cry (3-1) - 3 for 6 wins at this distance, class drop, should be there at finish
D - #3 Kitten Love (9/2) - Has got some speed, class drop 3 for 3 in money at distance, a cut below top 3 - Second
E - #5 Allwewantforxmas (10-1) - used for some value, 2 for 4 in money at distance, early speed
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 6,10/6,10 = $4
$1 - 6/1 = $1
- OR -
$1 - 6,10/6,10,1/6,10,1,3,5 = $12
Race 6 - 6f Md Sp Wght - Play
A - #3 Peeds in a Pod (9/2) - Third
B - #2 Lunar Rock (3-1) - Winner
C - #6 One More Cat (5/2)
D - #4 Heat Press (4-1) - Second
E - #5 Love's Not Fair (5-1)
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 2,3/2,3 = $4
$1 - 2,3/6 = $2
Pick 5 - Races 6,7,8,9,10
$0.50 - 3,2,6 / 8,9,6 / 1,2,6,7,8 / 8 / 10,1,3 = $67.50
- OR -
$0.50 - 3,2,6 / 8,9,6 / 1,2,6,7,8 / 8,7 / 10,1,3 = $135
Race 7 - 5-1/2f Claiming TURF - Play
A - #8 Simple Exchange (7/5) - seems best, but worried running style may hurt here
B - #9 Jungle Juice (5-1) - speed, could very well win
C - #6 Break the Record (6-1) - speed, ships in from SAR - Second
D - #7 Flip the Switch (10-1) - good value for Trifecta - Third
E - #12 Charli Sunshine (12-1) - good value for TrifectaSuggested Plays:
$2 - 8,9/8,9 = $4
$1 - 8,9/6 = $2
- OR -
$1 - 8,9/8,9,6/8,9,6,7,12 = $12
Pick 4 - Races 7,8,9,10
$0.50 - 8,9,6 / 1,2,6,7,8 / 8 / 10,1,3 = $22.50
- OR -
$0.50 - 8,9,6 / 1,2,6,7,8 / 8,7 / 10,1,3 = $45
Race 8 - 6f Md Sp Wght - Weak
A - #5 Coco Knows (6-1)
B - #7 D C Dancer (5/2) - Winner
C - #6 Indian Bucks (3-1) - Second
D - #2 Thurmont (12-1)
E - #1 Ski Pole (6-1)
Suggested Plays:
No plays, too wide open
Race 9 - 7f OC - Prime
A - #8 Hurricane Girl (Even) - speed drawn outside, seems easily the best. Even money maybe an overlay! - Winner $3.80
B - #1 Brushed by Love (9/2) - likes laurel, good speed #'s and class drop, forgive last out
C - #4 Banner Elk Lady (6-1) - Second
D - #3 Parade of Homes (12-1) - Third
E - #7 Namaskara (7/2) - this horse is a huge questions mark, therefore covering in mulit-race bets
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 8/1,4,3 = $6 - Hit $14.00
- OR -
$1 - 8/1,4,3/1,4,3,7 = $9 - Hit $30.70
$1 - 8/1,4,7/1,4,7 = $6 (can play this trifecta for add for value)
Race 10 - 1-1/8mi All Brandy 100K Stakes TURF - Action
A - #10 Daydreamin Gracie (9/2) - lone speed - Third
B - #1 Charged Cotton (4-1) - moving forward, if gets good trip will be likely winner - Winner
C - #3 Balitmore Belle (9/5) - winner if fires best run, like works, may need a race
D - #2 Access to Charlie (12-1) - like works, good turf rider
E - #7 Grant Park (8-1) - good closer, should get a clear trip - Second
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 10,1/10,1 = $4
$1 - 10,1/3 = $2
Pick 3 - Races 4,5,6 - Play listed in race 4.
Pick 5 - Races 6,7,8,9,10 - Play listed in race 6.
Pick 4 - Races 7,8,9,10 - Play listed in race 7.
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
First Post 1:10pm
Race 1 - 7f Maiden Claiming - Play
A - #2 Cu Soonerthanlater (5-1) - Has potential to get an easy lead - Second
B - #3 Aviation Show (8/5) - Class drop, good speed #'s, but didn't like notes from last out - Winner
C - #6 Love Hero (7/2) - was wide last out and closed gap, like trainer #'s - Third
D - #4 Running Game (6-1)
E - #7 Pounce Into Spring (10-1)
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 2,3/2,3 = $4 - Hit $8.80
$1 - 2,6/2,6 = $2
Race 2 - 1-1/16mi Alw - Action
A - #4 Tappinintovictory (9/5) - good speed and speed #'s, class drop, in money 6-10 at this distance - Winner $3.40
B - #1 Smiling Jordan (5/2) - good speed #'s, class drop and likes Laurel - Third
C - #3 Albrecht (3-1) - Has some speed, in money 12-15 at this distance - Second
D - #5 Warrensburg (8-1) - a good closer
E - #6 Siegfried (6-1) - a good closer
Suggested Plays:
With a lot of Play races on the card you may want to skip this one.
$1 - 4,1/4,1 = $2
$1 - 4/3,5 = $2 - Hit $6.20
Race 4 - 5-1/2f Claiming - Play
A - #1a Graysonia (2-1) - Third
B - #5 Bellissima Luna (5/2) - Winner
C - #4 Love to the Max (6-1) - Second
D - #3 Access Love (4-1)
E - #6 Daddyroe (6-1)
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 1a,5/1a,5 = $4
$1 - 1a/4 = $1
- OR -
$1 - 1a,5/1a,5,4/1a,5,4,3,6 = $12 - Hit $63.40
Pick 3 - Races 4,5,6
$0.50 - 1a,5 / 6,10,1 / 2,3,6 = $9
Race 5 - 5-1/2f OC TURF- Play
A - #6 Carole's Love (4-1) - Really like the early speed at this distance at Laurel, class drop
B - #10 Magical Merry (5-1) - Good speed #'s, should get good stalking trip from post, class drop - Third
C - #1 High Cry (3-1) - 3 for 6 wins at this distance, class drop, should be there at finish
D - #3 Kitten Love (9/2) - Has got some speed, class drop 3 for 3 in money at distance, a cut below top 3 - Second
E - #5 Allwewantforxmas (10-1) - used for some value, 2 for 4 in money at distance, early speed
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 6,10/6,10 = $4
$1 - 6/1 = $1
- OR -
$1 - 6,10/6,10,1/6,10,1,3,5 = $12
Race 6 - 6f Md Sp Wght - Play
A - #3 Peeds in a Pod (9/2) - Third
B - #2 Lunar Rock (3-1) - Winner
C - #6 One More Cat (5/2)
D - #4 Heat Press (4-1) - Second
E - #5 Love's Not Fair (5-1)
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 2,3/2,3 = $4
$1 - 2,3/6 = $2
Pick 5 - Races 6,7,8,9,10
$0.50 - 3,2,6 / 8,9,6 / 1,2,6,7,8 / 8 / 10,1,3 = $67.50
- OR -
$0.50 - 3,2,6 / 8,9,6 / 1,2,6,7,8 / 8,7 / 10,1,3 = $135
Race 7 - 5-1/2f Claiming TURF - Play
A - #8 Simple Exchange (7/5) - seems best, but worried running style may hurt here
B - #9 Jungle Juice (5-1) - speed, could very well win
C - #6 Break the Record (6-1) - speed, ships in from SAR - Second
D - #7 Flip the Switch (10-1) - good value for Trifecta - Third
E - #12 Charli Sunshine (12-1) - good value for TrifectaSuggested Plays:
$2 - 8,9/8,9 = $4
$1 - 8,9/6 = $2
- OR -
$1 - 8,9/8,9,6/8,9,6,7,12 = $12
Pick 4 - Races 7,8,9,10
$0.50 - 8,9,6 / 1,2,6,7,8 / 8 / 10,1,3 = $22.50
- OR -
$0.50 - 8,9,6 / 1,2,6,7,8 / 8,7 / 10,1,3 = $45
Race 8 - 6f Md Sp Wght - Weak
A - #5 Coco Knows (6-1)
B - #7 D C Dancer (5/2) - Winner
C - #6 Indian Bucks (3-1) - Second
D - #2 Thurmont (12-1)
E - #1 Ski Pole (6-1)
Suggested Plays:
No plays, too wide open
Race 9 - 7f OC - Prime
A - #8 Hurricane Girl (Even) - speed drawn outside, seems easily the best. Even money maybe an overlay! - Winner $3.80
B - #1 Brushed by Love (9/2) - likes laurel, good speed #'s and class drop, forgive last out
C - #4 Banner Elk Lady (6-1) - Second
D - #3 Parade of Homes (12-1) - Third
E - #7 Namaskara (7/2) - this horse is a huge questions mark, therefore covering in mulit-race bets
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 8/1,4,3 = $6 - Hit $14.00
- OR -
$1 - 8/1,4,3/1,4,3,7 = $9 - Hit $30.70
$1 - 8/1,4,7/1,4,7 = $6 (can play this trifecta for add for value)
Race 10 - 1-1/8mi All Brandy 100K Stakes TURF - Action
A - #10 Daydreamin Gracie (9/2) - lone speed - Third
B - #1 Charged Cotton (4-1) - moving forward, if gets good trip will be likely winner - Winner
C - #3 Balitmore Belle (9/5) - winner if fires best run, like works, may need a race
D - #2 Access to Charlie (12-1) - like works, good turf rider
E - #7 Grant Park (8-1) - good closer, should get a clear trip - Second
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 10,1/10,1 = $4
$1 - 10,1/3 = $2
Friday, September 14, 2012
Laurel Park - Friday 9-14-2012 Recap
Another couple of tough beats today. My B horse won in 4 out of 7 races. The two exacta's that hit were small and not enough to carry the day. The pick 4 was over in the first leg when a long shot ran down one of our horses in the stretch. And the we missed the pick3 by one horse. Also, in the 8th race the #1a Kentucky Pie got a horrible ride from Maysonett. The horse broke well and could have settle in, but instead was well held back off the pace. Then he made a huge move around the turn to reach contention, but ran out of gas in the stretch. With what he showed on the turn if he had been allowed to settle closer to the pace it would have been in contention late. I'm sure Kelly Breen informed Maysonett on his thoughts about the ride - but just in case he didn't: Maysonett, when racing in a 6f race at Laurel and Pimlico and your horse is one of the best in the race, ride him that way, especially when he breaks well! Speed is very beneficial in 6f at those tracks.
Ok, I'm off my soap box. I'll put my selections up later tonight for Saturday at Laurel.
Ok, I'm off my soap box. I'll put my selections up later tonight for Saturday at Laurel.
Laurel Park - Friday 9-14-2012 Selections
Updated for Scratches
B - #6 Scofield - Has some excuses and ships from Saratoga
C - #4 Keep the Canoli - Winner
D - #5 Shockman
E - #2 Stratocruiser - Second
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 1a/6,4 = $2
- OR -
$1 - 1a,/6,4/6,4,5 = $4
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 1 - 1 mi Md Sp Wght - Action
A - #2 Aidenandabettin - Big class drop - Second
B - #3 Duke of the City - Good speed #, like last work and trainer %'s - Winner
C - #2x Daddy in the Dark
D - #4 Carl's Only Vice
E - #5 Sam's Sonic - Third
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 2,3/2,3 = $2 - Hit $3.70
$1 -2/4 = $1
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 2,3/2,3 = $2 - Hit $3.70
$1 -2/4 = $1
Race 2 - 6f Claiming - Play
Scratched down to a 5 horse field. Here is how I rank them.
Scratched down to a 5 horse field. Here is how I rank them.
A - #1a Flying Posse - Just seems the best, but is coming from a layoff - Second
B - #3 Yo Koffy - Has some early speed - Winner
C - #6 Empedrado - Comes from off pace, but has had some trouble as of late
D - #4 Mystical Terp - does fire fresh, but style may hurt
E - #5 Yes He Did - Third
Suggested Plays:
May not be a lot of value in here.
$1 - 1a/3,6 = $2
$1 - 3/1a = $1 - Hit $4.40
Suggested Plays:
May not be a lot of value in here.
$1 - 1a/3,6 = $2
$1 - 3/1a = $1 - Hit $4.40
Race 4 - 5-1/2f Maiden Claiming - Action
A - #4 Star Leen - willing to forgive unruliness last out
B - #6 Punch Like a Girl - class drop, some trouble last outs - Third
C - #7 Regal Surprise
D - #1 Pink Beauty - Second
E - # 5 Burning Vow - Winner
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4,6/4,6,7 = $4
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4,6/4,6,7 = $4
Race 6 - 6f Claiming - Weak Start of $0.50 Pick 4
Race seems very wide open!
A - #5 Gold Glove
B - #1 Etarag - Second
C - #10 Bell's Prince
D - #6 Jaded Lover
E - #3 No Conflict - Third
Suggested Plays:
Pick 4
$0.50 - 5,1,10,6,3 / 3,4,14 / 1a,6 / 6,1 = $30
No intrarace plays, too wide open.
No intrarace plays, too wide open.
Race 7 - 5-1/2f TURF Alw - Action
A - #3 Promise Me - like the speed here, going to have to walk the dog
B - #4 Hidden Ball Trick - only other start on Turf was good - Winner
C - #14 Seeyouinthetown - Like the speed #'s and class, but may get caught wide
D - #7 Miss Hard Ten - Good post and closes well - Third
E - #12 Lion Down by Me - Should get a clean trip
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 3/4,14,7 = $3
$1 - 4/3 = $1
Pick 3 Races 7,8,9
$0.50 - 3,4,14 / 1a,6 / 6,1 = $6
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 3/4,14,7 = $3
$1 - 4/3 = $1
Pick 3 Races 7,8,9
$0.50 - 3,4,14 / 1a,6 / 6,1 = $6
Race 8 - 1 mi OC - Play
A - #1a Kentucky Pie - just seems the best - ThirdB - #6 Scofield - Has some excuses and ships from Saratoga
C - #4 Keep the Canoli - Winner
D - #5 Shockman
E - #2 Stratocruiser - Second
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 1a/6,4 = $2
- OR -
$1 - 1a,/6,4/6,4,5 = $4
Race 9 - 6f Alw - Play
A - #6 Monster Sleeping - nice class drop, good works and speed #'s
B - #1 Heir Stream - Mth shippers to Lrl run in the money 50%, moving fwd - Winner
C - #8 Nastar Medallist
D - #9 Two for One - Third
E - #2 More Than a Cruise - Second
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 6/1,8 = $2
$1 - 1/6 = $1
- OR -
$1 - 1,6/1,6,8/1,6,8,9,2 = $12
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 6/1,8 = $2
$1 - 1/6 = $1
- OR -
$1 - 1,6/1,6,8/1,6,8,9,2 = $12
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Getting Started
Excerpt from the moneyonthenose.com wagering guide.
The first thing I think
any new handicapper should do is go to the race track, not an OTB, but
to the actual race track. There is just something about being there,
seeing
the horses run and watching them come down the stretch while holding
your tickets
in your hand! Take $20 and go to the track. Buy a program or Daily
Racing Form make some selections and bet. Except for a few lucky ones
the majority of you will find
out just how easy it is to lose money at the track. You'll be thinking
how did I lose, that horse had the best speed numbers, he was the
biggest horse in the race, he had the fastest workouts or that jockey
was 30% and never won once out of 4 races today? The fact is there are
so many forces at work that go into a race from track bias and pace to
traffic and jockey mistakes. Some people will stop after their first
experience at the track and never pursue why they lost their money that
first day. They'll be content to go to the track occasionally with
their $20 and place a few bets. Others like myself, will be fueled with
desire to try to understand the game at its deepest depths. Sometimes
that seems impossible because you lose and no matter how long you pour
back over the past performances you cannot find an explanation.
Horse racing maybe the greatest game ever invented. I always tell people, a 120 pound man on a 1200 pound animal going 40 miles per hour - how is that not the greatest game in the world! And the best part is you get to bet on it! But, it can also be the most frustrating game in the world, even to professional handicappers. If you are going to be a consistent horse player you have to accept that losing is part of the game. It is impossible to pick the winner in every race and this is what leads people to say, "You can beat a race, but you can't beat the races". And that is the key to being a successful handicapper - learning which races you can beat. The fact of the matter is you don't have to win every race to be a successful horse player. You don't even have to win 50% of the races you bet.
For instance, in 2011 a regular jockey at Colonial Downs in New Kent, VA had a 30% win rate overall. If you had bet just this jockey when his horse went off at 2-1 or higher you would have placed 69 bets and won 16 of them. That is only a 23% win rate. The average payout on the 16 wins was $11.13. So, assuming a $2 bet you would of had a return on your investment of 28%! And that is before you handicapped any of the races! Applying handicapping principles you would be able to increase your ROI even more. My point is if you expect to play the races for more than just fun and have a positive ROI, then losing is part of the game.
I've always kept up with horse racing, but my first experience at the track was at the Preakness. I had never handicapped a race or placed a bet. My wife and I were in DC for her work that week and decided to stay over and go to the Preakness a few miles away in Baltimore. The night before I read online everything I could soak up in a few hours about betting and handicapping horse races. We sat down in our seats the next day just as the horses from the first race came down the stretch. I can still remember a horse from mid pack running down a tiring leader. From that moment on I was hooked.
I took out my program and started to handicap the next race. I didn't know much from my late night studies the previous night, so I was strongly leaning on speed figures, what little I knew about class and records. My budget for the day was $100. I headed to the Amtote betting machine and punched in my bet. I didn't know how to wheel on the machine so I boxed 3 horses in an Exacta at $1 each. The bet cost $6 and I watched with joy as two of my horse finished first and second. As I cashed my first ticket I thought, "Well that wasn't so hard!" Usually in life when I have that thought I am about to get my world rocked, and this time was no exception. Although I did win another bet or two that day, the majority of the day I lost and lost and lost some more. By the end of the day I had lost my $100 plus the small winnings from the day. As I left Pimlico that day I laughed off my loses, but something had changed. I was in love with the sport of horse racing and even more determined to find out why I had lost and to learn how to beat this game.
It took me almost a year with a lot of practice to learn how to best apply handicapping principles and most importantly how to bet. You can be the best handicapper in the world, but if you don't know how to bet your selections properly you will lose money. Likewise, you can be a mediocre handicapper, but a great bettor and win money. My goal in this handicapping and wagering guide is to help you learn how to be a better horse player without having to go through the same headaches and failures that I did. Playing the races is a constant learning experience, even for the most season handicappers. But knowing handicapping methods, how to bet and understanding where you succeed will give you a strong foundation.
My first suggestion to a new horse player would be to start with a few books. While the internet can be a great handicapping resource, including this guide, there are a few books written by professional handicappers in the industry that are invaluable. If you are an absolute beginner, as I was after I left my first Preakness, I would suggest starting with Betting on Horse Racing for Dummies by Richard Eng. After you have a good basic knowledge of handicapping and wagering I would move on to one or all of the books by Andrew Beyer. He is a colorful writer who puts the downside of horse racing into perspective. Finally, I would move on to what I call the horse players bible, Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st century by Steve Davidowitz. This book is packed full of thoughts, concepts and situations from one of the industries leading handicappers. He covers topics like track bias, speed, pedigree and a whole lot more. It is truly a book where you learn something in every chapter and I found the book was best to be treated as a reference guide or read in sections while handicapping versus being read straight through. There's just too much knowledge in there to absorb in one reading.
Next find where you are going to buy your past performances (pp's): drf.com, equibase.com, brisnet.com. While you will pay more for them at drf.com (Daily Racing Form), their pp's are much more in depth and you can see the data or statistics that you think is pertinent to a certain race. Definitely when I go to the track, I get my pp's from drf.com. I'm not going to go over how to read the past performances because most sites that offer them also have detailed guides or tutorials.
There are many types of bets you can play. But when starting out I would suggest straight win betting. The exotic payoffs are very, very enticing, but without a good understanding of how these bets work and how to apply them once you've completed your handicapping, you'll likely be throwing money away. By starting with straight win betting you'll learn to work the odds and organize your bets where you feel you have the best chance of winning, something we'll cover more later. Once you have this foundation you will be much more successful in your exotic bets.
Horse racing maybe the greatest game ever invented. I always tell people, a 120 pound man on a 1200 pound animal going 40 miles per hour - how is that not the greatest game in the world! And the best part is you get to bet on it! But, it can also be the most frustrating game in the world, even to professional handicappers. If you are going to be a consistent horse player you have to accept that losing is part of the game. It is impossible to pick the winner in every race and this is what leads people to say, "You can beat a race, but you can't beat the races". And that is the key to being a successful handicapper - learning which races you can beat. The fact of the matter is you don't have to win every race to be a successful horse player. You don't even have to win 50% of the races you bet.
For instance, in 2011 a regular jockey at Colonial Downs in New Kent, VA had a 30% win rate overall. If you had bet just this jockey when his horse went off at 2-1 or higher you would have placed 69 bets and won 16 of them. That is only a 23% win rate. The average payout on the 16 wins was $11.13. So, assuming a $2 bet you would of had a return on your investment of 28%! And that is before you handicapped any of the races! Applying handicapping principles you would be able to increase your ROI even more. My point is if you expect to play the races for more than just fun and have a positive ROI, then losing is part of the game.
I've always kept up with horse racing, but my first experience at the track was at the Preakness. I had never handicapped a race or placed a bet. My wife and I were in DC for her work that week and decided to stay over and go to the Preakness a few miles away in Baltimore. The night before I read online everything I could soak up in a few hours about betting and handicapping horse races. We sat down in our seats the next day just as the horses from the first race came down the stretch. I can still remember a horse from mid pack running down a tiring leader. From that moment on I was hooked.
I took out my program and started to handicap the next race. I didn't know much from my late night studies the previous night, so I was strongly leaning on speed figures, what little I knew about class and records. My budget for the day was $100. I headed to the Amtote betting machine and punched in my bet. I didn't know how to wheel on the machine so I boxed 3 horses in an Exacta at $1 each. The bet cost $6 and I watched with joy as two of my horse finished first and second. As I cashed my first ticket I thought, "Well that wasn't so hard!" Usually in life when I have that thought I am about to get my world rocked, and this time was no exception. Although I did win another bet or two that day, the majority of the day I lost and lost and lost some more. By the end of the day I had lost my $100 plus the small winnings from the day. As I left Pimlico that day I laughed off my loses, but something had changed. I was in love with the sport of horse racing and even more determined to find out why I had lost and to learn how to beat this game.
It took me almost a year with a lot of practice to learn how to best apply handicapping principles and most importantly how to bet. You can be the best handicapper in the world, but if you don't know how to bet your selections properly you will lose money. Likewise, you can be a mediocre handicapper, but a great bettor and win money. My goal in this handicapping and wagering guide is to help you learn how to be a better horse player without having to go through the same headaches and failures that I did. Playing the races is a constant learning experience, even for the most season handicappers. But knowing handicapping methods, how to bet and understanding where you succeed will give you a strong foundation.
My first suggestion to a new horse player would be to start with a few books. While the internet can be a great handicapping resource, including this guide, there are a few books written by professional handicappers in the industry that are invaluable. If you are an absolute beginner, as I was after I left my first Preakness, I would suggest starting with Betting on Horse Racing for Dummies by Richard Eng. After you have a good basic knowledge of handicapping and wagering I would move on to one or all of the books by Andrew Beyer. He is a colorful writer who puts the downside of horse racing into perspective. Finally, I would move on to what I call the horse players bible, Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st century by Steve Davidowitz. This book is packed full of thoughts, concepts and situations from one of the industries leading handicappers. He covers topics like track bias, speed, pedigree and a whole lot more. It is truly a book where you learn something in every chapter and I found the book was best to be treated as a reference guide or read in sections while handicapping versus being read straight through. There's just too much knowledge in there to absorb in one reading.
Next find where you are going to buy your past performances (pp's): drf.com, equibase.com, brisnet.com. While you will pay more for them at drf.com (Daily Racing Form), their pp's are much more in depth and you can see the data or statistics that you think is pertinent to a certain race. Definitely when I go to the track, I get my pp's from drf.com. I'm not going to go over how to read the past performances because most sites that offer them also have detailed guides or tutorials.
There are many types of bets you can play. But when starting out I would suggest straight win betting. The exotic payoffs are very, very enticing, but without a good understanding of how these bets work and how to apply them once you've completed your handicapping, you'll likely be throwing money away. By starting with straight win betting you'll learn to work the odds and organize your bets where you feel you have the best chance of winning, something we'll cover more later. Once you have this foundation you will be much more successful in your exotic bets.
Monday, September 10, 2012
Laurel Park - Saturday 9-7-2012 Recap
Saturday's card at Laurel seemed full of places where I zigged where I should have zagged. It seemed horse I thought would show early speed either broke slowly or faded. My best plays where to come late in the card and the thunderstorm turned the track sloppy by the 8th race. Admittedly I am not the best wet track handicapper and that hurt me. Also, with the 11th race coming off the turf at the last minute I didn't have time to update those selection.
I was pleased to catch the 3 winners, especially in the Stakes in race 10. I felt like it would be a cavalry charge to the wire and that See Tobe would get a trip to get first run. I did think the race was wide up open, but I hope some of you used the pick to catch the $17.80 winner.
Also, I noticed that I didn't update my Pick 4 tickets after the number 4 scratched in the 10th. I hope that if you tried to play the ticket you noticed you couldn't play the #4 and went back and looked at the selections in the race to replace the #4 with See Tobe. Again, I apologize for that.
One horse to watch going forward was the #7 Star Lookout in Race 3. This horse lost to a very impressive horse in his first out while gaining ground in which he was easily second best. In yesterdays race he was far back, came wide off the turn and closed well chasing hard. He was easily second best. He has fired well in both races and if this horse can catch a little speed he could be an easy winning.
I'll post more selections from Laurel late in the week.
I was pleased to catch the 3 winners, especially in the Stakes in race 10. I felt like it would be a cavalry charge to the wire and that See Tobe would get a trip to get first run. I did think the race was wide up open, but I hope some of you used the pick to catch the $17.80 winner.
Also, I noticed that I didn't update my Pick 4 tickets after the number 4 scratched in the 10th. I hope that if you tried to play the ticket you noticed you couldn't play the #4 and went back and looked at the selections in the race to replace the #4 with See Tobe. Again, I apologize for that.
One horse to watch going forward was the #7 Star Lookout in Race 3. This horse lost to a very impressive horse in his first out while gaining ground in which he was easily second best. In yesterdays race he was far back, came wide off the turn and closed well chasing hard. He was easily second best. He has fired well in both races and if this horse can catch a little speed he could be an easy winning.
I'll post more selections from Laurel late in the week.
Saturday, September 8, 2012
Laurel Park - Saturday 9-7-2012 Selections
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 1 - 5-1/2f Maiden Claiming - Weak
Likely winner and exacta is amongst the top 4. I like the #3 hoping for an easy lead. However, I don't think this is a good race to bet. Maybe just a win bet on #3.
A - #3 Healy Honey - Could get an easy lead
B - #5 Fancy Attitude - Good speed #'s, running style may hurt - Winner
C - #1 Seekthe Wild - Shot if decides to run to best - Third
D - #1a Yoshi's Cat - First time starter with a good shot, trainer has good %'s with this type
E - #6 El Rey's Reina - Needed a 5th horse.
Suggested Plays:
Just a token win on #3.
Race 2 - 5-1/2f Claiming - Action
A - #2 Medieval Cat - Class of race, will need to get good position early - Second
B - #3 Marataya's Tune - Trouble in recent starts, could show speed
C - #6 Morada Choice - Will definitely show speed with a good post, but layoff is concern
D - #4 Nag Nag Nag - Should be laying close to speed
E - #5 Great Motion - Good post for off pace style, but not a lot of speed in race - Third
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 2/3
$1 - 3/2
$1 - 2,6/2,6
Race 3 - 6f Maiden Claiming - Play
I think #7 is very likely the winner here.
A - #7 Star Lookout - Closed well last out, lost to very impressive horse - Second
B - #3 Hero's Nation - Forgive last out
C - #4 Broadruns Jewell - Good trainner #'s with Maidens & first starters, good last work
D - #8 Marry Me Do - Good post, always like Sheldon Russell - Winner
E - #1 Gentle as a Breeze - Class drop, has race experience
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 7/3,4
$1 - 7/8
Race 4 - 1 mile Maiden Claiming - Action
A - #8 No Peeking - Speed drawn outside
B - #4 Imsobold - Has shown some williingness to run - Third
C - #5 Buffy - Closed the gap last out - Second
D - #7 Work It Out - May could fill out Trifecta
E - #6 Gold Lark - May could fill out Trifecta
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 8,4/8,4
$1 - 8,5/8,5
Race 5 - 5-1/2f Turf Claiming - Action
A - #4 Fearsome - Has speed, good trainer %'s - Winner $6.00
B - #12 Public Secret - Good speed #'s
C - #8 Cash Bear - Runs well, like post
D - #3 Black River - Has speed - Third
E - #5 Just Bearable - Could sit and wait or show speed
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4/12,8
$1 - 12,8/4
Race 6 - 7f Claiming - Action/Play
I like the #2 if Navarro puts her on the lead. Could be lone speed in race.
A - #2 My Darling Miss - Could be lone speed
B - #7 Let's Get Lucky - Seems the class of the race - Winner
C - #8 Stone Maiden - Likes Laurel, like the outside post for a good trip
D - #6 Tutu's Angel - Class drop, has run well at distance
E - #4 Dream Every Dream - Class drop, good speed #'s, but will running style hurt? - Third
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 2,7/2,7 = $4
$1 - 2,7/8 = $2
- OR -
$1 - 2,7/2,7,8/2,7,8,6,4 = $12
Race 7 - 5-1/2f Turf OC - Weak
Would love #13 if not on the outside, still she may be the best in here, but not willing to count on it.
A - #6 Clapifyoubelieve - Good speed and trainer has good #'s
B - #10 Backyard Boogie - Class drop, has speed, post should help - Second
C - #13 Jewel of a Cat - Seems the best here, but worried will be caught wide - Winner
D - #2 Touring Hong Kong - Like last work, may have to go early with post - Third
E - #8 Wisestar - Class drop
Suggested Plays:
Pick 4 - Races 7,8,9,10 - I've included 4 tickets at different amounts to suit your style of play.
$0.50 - 6,10,13/8,9/3,5/7,10,9 = $18
- OR -
$0.50 - 6,10,13,2/8,9/3,5/7,10,9,1,5 = $50
- OR -
$0.50 - 6,10,13,2/8,9/3,5,2/7,10,9,1,5 = $60
Race 8 - 1 mile Claiming - Play
I think #8 is the best here with a good post to avoid traffic.
A - #8 Citizen Kat - Nice class drop, seems the best, always have to respect Ness
B - #9 Who Dat Boy - Class drop, can close well, likes Laurel & distance, but could be wide
C - #6 Outbacker - Some speed, good class drop
D - #2 Ram - Good speed #'s
E - #4 Jazz Age - Class drop, but is coming off layoff - Third
Suggested Plays:
Pick 3 - Races 8,9,10
$0.50 - 8,9,6/3,5/7,10,9,1,5 = $15
Exacta & Trifecta Bets
$2 - 8/9,6 = $4
$1 - 8/2,4 = $2
$1 - 9/8 =$1
- OR -
$1 - 8/9,6,2/9,6,2,4 = $9
Race 9 - 6f OC - Play
Really like #3 to win here.
A - #3 Regal Solo - Class of race, seems ready to fire big, pace would help - Winner $6.20
B - #5 Trapezium Star - Speed, loves the MUD esp. at Laurel - Third
C - #2 Tomorrow's Tale - Some speed, longshot - Second
D - #6 Mass Destruction - Class drop, runs well
E - #7 Adirondack King - Class drop, good horse, but may need a race coming off the layoff
Suggested Plays:
Pick 3 - Races 9,10,11
$0.50 - 3,5,2/7,10,9,1,5/10,6,8 = $22.50 could remove #8 in race 11 or #2 in race 9 for $15 ticket)
Exacta & Trifecta Bets
$2 - 3/5,2 = $4 / Hit $22.40
$1 - 3/6,7 = $2
$1 - 5/3,2 =$2
- OR -
$1 - 3,5/3,5,2/3,5,2,6,7 = $12 / Hit $33.60 (or $1 - 3/5,2/5,2,6,7 = $6 with $1 - 5/3,2 = $2 Exacta saver to save money)
Race 10 - 1-1/16 mile Turf Stakes - Action
I have a lot less clarity in here with the scratch of #4 Tonto Fontenot. Lots of closers in here, with a few speed horses. Should be a cavalry charge to the wire, if the speed fades in time.
A - #7 See Tobe - Another consistent closer - Winner $17.80
B - #10 Action Andy - Speed drawn outside, how much will fade is the question
C - #9 Dannhauser - By speed #'s he doesn't belong, but this horse is always game, pace would help - Third
D - #1 El Commodore - Speed, but seems off form lately
E - #5 London Lane - Likes Laurel and distance
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 7,10/7,10,9,1 = $6
Race 11 - 5-1/2f Turf Md Sp Wght - Play OFF TURF
I'd disregard these plays with it coming off the turf.
A - #10 Make Em See Red - Very much the best, wide is concerning, has speed
B - #6 Abigail Adams - Looking to move forward here, racing in same class
C - #8 I Am Iron Woman - Good trainer #'s, good post - Second
D - #5 Cherubina - Sheldon Russell riding in a maiden turf race, trainer good with 1stW/Trn #'s
E - #4 Fridays Gift - May move forward here - Winner
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 10/6,5,8,4 = $4
- OR -
$1 - 10/6,5,8,4/6,5,8,4 = $12 (or $1 - 10/6,5,8/6,5,8,4 = $9 to save money)
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 1 - 5-1/2f Maiden Claiming - Weak
Likely winner and exacta is amongst the top 4. I like the #3 hoping for an easy lead. However, I don't think this is a good race to bet. Maybe just a win bet on #3.
A - #3 Healy Honey - Could get an easy lead
B - #5 Fancy Attitude - Good speed #'s, running style may hurt - Winner
C - #1 Seekthe Wild - Shot if decides to run to best - Third
D - #1a Yoshi's Cat - First time starter with a good shot, trainer has good %'s with this type
E - #6 El Rey's Reina - Needed a 5th horse.
Suggested Plays:
Just a token win on #3.
A - #2 Medieval Cat - Class of race, will need to get good position early - Second
B - #3 Marataya's Tune - Trouble in recent starts, could show speed
C - #6 Morada Choice - Will definitely show speed with a good post, but layoff is concern
D - #4 Nag Nag Nag - Should be laying close to speed
E - #5 Great Motion - Good post for off pace style, but not a lot of speed in race - Third
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 2/3
$1 - 3/2
$1 - 2,6/2,6
Race 3 - 6f Maiden Claiming - Play
I think #7 is very likely the winner here.
A - #7 Star Lookout - Closed well last out, lost to very impressive horse - Second
B - #3 Hero's Nation - Forgive last out
C - #4 Broadruns Jewell - Good trainner #'s with Maidens & first starters, good last work
D - #8 Marry Me Do - Good post, always like Sheldon Russell - Winner
E - #1 Gentle as a Breeze - Class drop, has race experience
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 7/3,4
$1 - 7/8
Race 4 - 1 mile Maiden Claiming - Action
A - #8 No Peeking - Speed drawn outside
B - #4 Imsobold - Has shown some williingness to run - Third
C - #5 Buffy - Closed the gap last out - Second
D - #7 Work It Out - May could fill out Trifecta
E - #6 Gold Lark - May could fill out Trifecta
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 8,4/8,4
$1 - 8,5/8,5
Race 5 - 5-1/2f Turf Claiming - Action
A - #4 Fearsome - Has speed, good trainer %'s - Winner $6.00
B - #12 Public Secret - Good speed #'s
C - #8 Cash Bear - Runs well, like post
D - #3 Black River - Has speed - Third
E - #5 Just Bearable - Could sit and wait or show speed
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4/12,8
$1 - 12,8/4
Race 6 - 7f Claiming - Action/Play
I like the #2 if Navarro puts her on the lead. Could be lone speed in race.
A - #2 My Darling Miss - Could be lone speed
B - #7 Let's Get Lucky - Seems the class of the race - Winner
C - #8 Stone Maiden - Likes Laurel, like the outside post for a good trip
D - #6 Tutu's Angel - Class drop, has run well at distance
E - #4 Dream Every Dream - Class drop, good speed #'s, but will running style hurt? - Third
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 2,7/2,7 = $4
$1 - 2,7/8 = $2
- OR -
$1 - 2,7/2,7,8/2,7,8,6,4 = $12
Race 7 - 5-1/2f Turf OC - Weak
Would love #13 if not on the outside, still she may be the best in here, but not willing to count on it.
A - #6 Clapifyoubelieve - Good speed and trainer has good #'s
B - #10 Backyard Boogie - Class drop, has speed, post should help - Second
C - #13 Jewel of a Cat - Seems the best here, but worried will be caught wide - Winner
D - #2 Touring Hong Kong - Like last work, may have to go early with post - Third
E - #8 Wisestar - Class drop
Suggested Plays:
Pick 4 - Races 7,8,9,10 - I've included 4 tickets at different amounts to suit your style of play.
$0.50 - 6,10,13/8,9/3,5/7,10,9 = $18
- OR -
$0.50 - 6,10,13,2/8,9/3,5/7,10,9,1,5 = $50
- OR -
$0.50 - 6,10,13,2/8,9/3,5,2/7,10,9,1,5 = $60
Race 8 - 1 mile Claiming - Play
I think #8 is the best here with a good post to avoid traffic.
A - #8 Citizen Kat - Nice class drop, seems the best, always have to respect Ness
B - #9 Who Dat Boy - Class drop, can close well, likes Laurel & distance, but could be wide
C - #6 Outbacker - Some speed, good class drop
D - #2 Ram - Good speed #'s
E - #4 Jazz Age - Class drop, but is coming off layoff - Third
Suggested Plays:
Pick 3 - Races 8,9,10
$0.50 - 8,9,6/3,5/7,10,9,1,5 = $15
Exacta & Trifecta Bets
$2 - 8/9,6 = $4
$1 - 8/2,4 = $2
$1 - 9/8 =$1
- OR -
$1 - 8/9,6,2/9,6,2,4 = $9
Race 9 - 6f OC - Play
Really like #3 to win here.
A - #3 Regal Solo - Class of race, seems ready to fire big, pace would help - Winner $6.20
B - #5 Trapezium Star - Speed, loves the MUD esp. at Laurel - Third
C - #2 Tomorrow's Tale - Some speed, longshot - Second
D - #6 Mass Destruction - Class drop, runs well
E - #7 Adirondack King - Class drop, good horse, but may need a race coming off the layoff
Suggested Plays:
Pick 3 - Races 9,10,11
$0.50 - 3,5,2/7,10,9,1,5/10,6,8 = $22.50 could remove #8 in race 11 or #2 in race 9 for $15 ticket)
Exacta & Trifecta Bets
$2 - 3/5,2 = $4 / Hit $22.40
$1 - 3/6,7 = $2
$1 - 5/3,2 =$2
- OR -
$1 - 3,5/3,5,2/3,5,2,6,7 = $12 / Hit $33.60 (or $1 - 3/5,2/5,2,6,7 = $6 with $1 - 5/3,2 = $2 Exacta saver to save money)
Race 10 - 1-1/16 mile Turf Stakes - Action
I have a lot less clarity in here with the scratch of #4 Tonto Fontenot. Lots of closers in here, with a few speed horses. Should be a cavalry charge to the wire, if the speed fades in time.
A - #7 See Tobe - Another consistent closer - Winner $17.80
B - #10 Action Andy - Speed drawn outside, how much will fade is the question
C - #9 Dannhauser - By speed #'s he doesn't belong, but this horse is always game, pace would help - Third
D - #1 El Commodore - Speed, but seems off form lately
E - #5 London Lane - Likes Laurel and distance
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 7,10/7,10,9,1 = $6
Race 11 - 5-1/2f Turf Md Sp Wght - Play OFF TURF
I'd disregard these plays with it coming off the turf.
A - #10 Make Em See Red - Very much the best, wide is concerning, has speed
B - #6 Abigail Adams - Looking to move forward here, racing in same class
C - #8 I Am Iron Woman - Good trainer #'s, good post - Second
D - #5 Cherubina - Sheldon Russell riding in a maiden turf race, trainer good with 1stW/Trn #'s
E - #4 Fridays Gift - May move forward here - Winner
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 10/6,5,8,4 = $4
- OR -
$1 - 10/6,5,8,4/6,5,8,4 = $12 (or $1 - 10/6,5,8/6,5,8,4 = $9 to save money)
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Post Woodward Day Thoughts & Trip Notes...
Saratoga Race 8 - Bernard Baruch G2
Dominus was an easy bet in here being the lone speed. While Data Link was the best horse in the race he was severly compromised by the pace.
Trip Notes: Slow Pace
Data Link - Stayed close, had to shift to outside, but could not catch winner, no pace help
Dominus - easy lead uncontested, with plenty left for good kick str
Guys Reward - up close 1L off, held 3rd
Sky Blazer - horribly missed break, then hopped out of gate, lost several lengths, still ran good
Saratoga Race 9 - Forego G1
Even with the scratch of Shackleford there was still some speed here, but Emcee still seemed the best. The fear that Jackson Bend wouldn't run well because of the recent training accident turned out to be a good thought. I like Jackson Bend, so I'm hoping for a good recovery.
Trip Notes: Honest pace, but Speed held
Jersey Town - rail 2L off, saved ground, reached contention off turn, then faded late
Jackson Bend - last early, rail no bid but sp held, seemed out of gas *first race since training accident
Pacific Ocean - lead pressed by Emcee, faded late str
Emcee - pressed pace 1/2L off, floated a little wide into str, then kicked away good str for win
Caixa Eletronica - Ran evenly *Sp held, no help
Hamazing Destiny - good position outside 2L off, came late just up for 2nd
Saratoga Race 10 - Woodward G1
To Honor and Serve seem like he was going to get the best trip in the Woodward, which he did. Mucho Macho Man was up against it after a slow break, then getting bumped and pinched back and having to race inside and wait to get out. Once he did get out, Johnny Velazquez riding To Honor and Serve floated him wide. With all of that said, Mucho Macho Man may very well have been the best horse in the race, but once he got out it looked like he was going to run right by To Honor and Serve. To Honor and Serve dug in and Mucho Macho Man seemed to hang a bit at the end.
Trip Notes: Honest Pace - Mucho Macho Man & To Honor and Serve were easily best
Rule - shared lead, tired str
Gourmet Dinner - far back, nothing
Mucho Macho Man - broke slow, bumped/pinched at break, pinned on rail through 2T, got out str, gained looking like was going to win, dueled str, was floated out in str, but hung beside stubborn foe
Trickmeister - shared lead flattened off 2T, held 4th, no match
Stay Thirsty - stalked 3L off pace, 4w on 2T, no match, evenly
To Honor and Serve - Excellent Trip, stalked outside, took over str, dueled fought stubbornly for win holding off Mucho Macho Man
Cease - last early 7L off into bckstr, 9L off into 2T, had to shift out early str, closed well for 3rd but not match
Saturday, September 1, 2012
Saratoga 9-1-2012 Woodward Day Selections - Races 8,9,10
Race 8 - Bernard Baruch G2
A - #4 Dominus - Should like Turf and figures to be lone speed - First
B - #5 Guys Reward - Always runs well and figures to get good trip
C - #6 Sky Blazer - Like recent works, figures to lay close with a good trip - Third
D - #1 Data Link - May be compromised by pace, but definitely horse to beat - Second
E - #7 Prince Will I Am - Looks like they are using race as stepping stone, but Ex or Tri possibilities
Race 9 - Forego G1
A - #6 Emcee - Lots of speed in here, but hoping it holds - First
B - #4 Jackson Bend - Could be there if speed doesn't hold
C - #5 Pacific Ocean - Another speed horse who likes Saratoga
D - #7 Caixa Eletronica - Another good closer who could take over if speed fails
E - #8 Hamazing Destiny - Should get good outside trip, but needs some pace help - Second
Even with the scratch of Shackleford there is still a lot of speed in here. I wouldn't blame anyone for boxing Jackson Bend, Caixa Eletronica and Hamazing Destiny in an Exacta and hoping for a collapse and a payday!
Race 10 - Woodward G1
A - #6 To Honor and Serve - Should sit a good trip, likes SAR, could fire big here - First
B - #5 Stay Thirsty - This horse LOVES Saratoga! Mike Welsch like his last work in which he was clearly better than Rule. Should be a good price.
C - #3 Mucho Macho Man - This was my pick until I heard Mike Welsch say his last two works had declined. Still his best will runaway from this field, but figures to be a short price. - Second
D - #1 Rule - Is going to have to go with the rail post, likes SAR, but how much will the speed fade?
E - #4 Trickmeister - Could be lone speed and a good bet if Rule doesn't go with him. How much will the speed fade is a big question for your exotics?
Also, #7 Cease is a good play in here. He likes SAR and figures a good trip. I just sided with others, but may use him underneath.
Also, #7 Cease is a good play in here. He likes SAR and figures a good trip. I just sided with others, but may use him underneath.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)