Updated 5:45pm.
Card Notes-
The card has the potential to be a little chalky, from a winner standpoint. However, there are some longer shots that could complete the exotics which would boost payouts.
My Race Rating System-
I
always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic
bets. In
some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my
selected
winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider
betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
None
Race 1 - 5-1/2f INNER TURF Clm - Play
A - #1a My Queen (8/5) - has beat better, but may get hung wide, coupled with #1 Bridge Night
B - #11 Phantasticus (3-1) - note turf beyers from 2012 are good enough vs these
C - #7 Arrestedforpassion (20-1) - runs some decent #'s on turf, class drop, value
D - #5 Cherry Wildcat (6-1) - drops from op 9k, can really close
E - #3 Darn Proud (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
1-1a, 11, 7
Race Notes-
The 1 & 1a are my top 2 horses, if one scratches, just replace top spot with other one.
Suggested Plays:
$3 - 1-1a / 11 / 7 = $3
$2 - 1-1a / 7 / 11 = $2
$1 - 1-1a,11 / 1-1a,11 / 7,5,3 = $6
$0.50 - 1-1a,11 / 7,5,3 / 7,5,3 = $6
$2 - 11 / 1-1a / 7 = $2
$0.50 - 1-1a,11 / 7,5,3 / 1-1a,11 = $3
Race 3 - 5-1/2f INNER TURF Md Clm - Play
A - #7 Ramsey Branch (9/5) - drops from MSW, may have best early SP
B - #3 Mott (7/2) - good early SP, pedigree, still may be a cut below
C - #6 Meant Every Tear (9/2) - trainer 28% 1st Start, 39% Debut Md Clm, solid work tab
D - #1 Get On Bob (12-1)
E - #4 Citizen Chris (4-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,3,6
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$5 - 7 / 3 / 6 = $5
$3 - 7 / 6 / 3 = $3
$5 - 3 / 7 / 6 = $5
$0.50 - 7 / 3,6,1,4 / 3,6,1,4 = $6
$0.50 - 3 / 7 / 1,4 = $1
$0.50 - 3 / 6,1,4 / 7 = $1.50
Race 4 - 5-1/2f TURF Clm - Play
A - #1 Fixin the Books (8/5) - class drop, good early speed
B - #10 Let's Play Two (5/2) - not crazy about Ct shippers, but early speed, has run well on turf
C - #2 Highstar (7/2) - class drop, good closer, trouble last out, not sure she can get up in time
D - #4 Fancy Attitude (20-1) - class drop, plenty of trouble to forgive lone turf start, value
E - #7 Heirrogant One (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
1,10,2
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$5 - 1 /10 / 2 = $5
$3 - 1 / 2 / 10 = $3
$5 - 10 / 1 / 2 = $5
$0.50 - 1 / 10,2,4,7 / 10,2,4,7 = $6
$0.50 - 10 / 1 / 4,7 = $1
$0.50 - 10 / 2,4,7 / 1 = $1.50
Race 5 - 5f TURF MSW - Action
A - #1a Lemon Cookie (9/5) - flashed SP last out, trainer 30% with 1st Turf
B - #5 Country Sunshine (7/2) - Smith does well with 2yr olds and Russell doesn't hurt either
C - #4 One More Son (5-1)
D - #2 Offlee Worthy (5-1)
E - #8 O Reeley (15)
Multi-Race Horses-
1a,5,4,2,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 6 - 5-1/2f sAlw - Action
A - #6 Whatsnottolike (Even) - Speed horse with big beyer, but that was lone turf start, still seems like a giant here
B - #4 Dan's Last Stand (5-1) - will be closing from just off the pace, class drop, 4-6 in Exacta at distance
C - #9 April's Dixie Bell (6-1) - will close from off the pace, not sure he can get there, but presence of Russell helps
D - #5 So Serene (15-1) - class drop, runs well at Cnl and distance
E - #10 Queen of the Disco (15-1) - always closes late
Multi-Race Horses-
6,4,9,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 1 mile INNER TURF OC - Action
A - #8 Art of the Hunt (4-1) - has paired up two nice beyers within a length of par
B - #9 Reel Victory (9/2) - comes form open claiming company with good beyers
C - #6 Alamanda Drive (12-1) - comes from open 14K claiming, early SP
D - #2 Kiss the Stars (8/5) - classic horse not to bet, more than 1 year layoff, only 3 published workouts and is in for a tag, extremely vulnerable favorite
E - #3 Moral High Ground (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
8,9,6,2
Race Notes-
If you have a good opinion, this is a great race to try to beat the 8/5 favorite, I just don't have a great clarity in this race.
Suggested Plays:
Friday, June 14, 2013
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Colonial Downs 6-13-2013 - Full Card
CARD CANCELLED DUE TO POWER OUTAGE.
Card Notes-
Hopefully, we can dodge the thunderstorms and the track will stay firm.
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 2,3,4
$0.50 - 5,2 / 9,14 / 7,4 = $4
$0.50 - 5 / 9,14,1 / 7,4,1 = $4.50
$0.50 - 5,2,9 / 9 / 7,4,1 = $4.50
$0.50 - 5,2,9 / 9,14,1 / 7 = $4.50
Pick 3 - Races 3,4,5
$0.50 - 9,14 / 7,4 / 5,2 = $4
$0.50 - 9 / 7,4,1 / 5,2,1 = $4.50
$0.50 - 9,14,1 / 7 / 5,2,1 = $4.50
$0.50 - 9,14,1 / 7,4,1 / 5 = $4.50
Daily Double - Races 4,5
$1 - 7,4,1 / 5,2,1 = $9
$1 - 7,4 / 5,2 = $4
$1 - 7 / 5 = $1
Race 1 - 5-1/2f TURF MSW - Action+
A - #7 Sunbaked (9/2) - class drop, comes off a due in last out with 2 good works, breeding suggest ok on turf
B - #8 Said in Silence (3-1) - class drop, is wheeling right back, beyers put in mix
C - #6 Lady Olivia (7/5) - is cutting back and 1st out in 2013, vulnerable favorite, good last work
D - #3 Reenie (15-1)
E - #2 Sherwood Outlaw (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,8,6
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 7,8 / 7,8,6= $8
$1 - 6 / 7,8 = $2
Race 2 - 5-1/2f TURF Clm - Play
A - #5 Summer in Giza (5-1) - best early speed, may be able to wire
B - #2 Call Me Frankie (9/2) - 1st in 2013, but good last work, has run well at Cnl and distance
C - #9 Valter (3-1) - class drop and class relief from runnings in 2012
D - #4 Quetzalito (8-1)
E - #7 Castle Victory (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
5,2,9
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$3 - 5 / 2 / 9 = $3
$2 - 5 / 9 / 2 = $2
$2 - 2 / 5 / 9 = $2
$1 - 5,2 / 5,2 / 9,4,7 = $6
$0.50 - 5,2 / 9,4,7 / 9,4,7 = $6
$0.50 - 5,2 / 9,4,7 / 5,2 = $3
Race 3 - 5-1/2f TURF Md Clm - Play
A - #9 Curly Sue (7/5) - class drop, can show good early speed cutting back to sprint
B - #14 Spunky Country Gal (12-1) - class drop, bad trouble last out had to check hard lost all chance
C - #1 Campbell Creek (12-1) - class drop, but Ct runners don't win well here
D - #13 English Arms (8-1)
E - #3 Jackadee (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
9,14,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 9,14 / 9,14 = $4
$1 - 9,14 / 1,13,3 = $8
Race 4 - 5-1/2f TURF Clm - Play
A - #7 Jewelian 'n Roses (2-1) - good post, class drop, good early speed
B - #4 Cousin Brucy (3-1) - good work tab (esp last work) and sire does well with turf runners, like Russell
C - #1 Irunalatte (8-1) - Class drop, seems a cut below top 2 in here
D - #8 Hannibal Barca (6-1)
E - #5 Later Tater (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,4,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$3 - 7 / 4 / 1 = $3
$2 - 7 / 1 / 4 = $2
$2 - 4 / 7 / 1 = $2
$1 - 7,4 / 7,4 / 1,8,5 = $6
$0.50 - 7,4 / 1,8,5 / 1,8,5 = $6
$0.50 - 7,4 / 1,8,5 / 7,4 = $3
Race 5 - 5-1/2f TURF Clm - Play
A - #5 Boatyard (7/5) - good post for style, dueled in last our, younger against older but very likely
B - #2 Available (7/2) - class drop, beyers a few lengths below par, will be running late
C - #1 Silent Tale (5-1) - can close, but is shipping from Ct, definitely a cut below
D - #4 Cap'n Raymond (12-1)
E - #3 Nighcut (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
5,2,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$3 - 5 / 2 / 1 = $3
$2 - 5 / 1 / 2 = $2
$2 - 2 / 5 / 1= $2
$1 - 5,2 / 5,2 / 1,4,3 = $6
$0.50 - 5,2 / 1,4,3 / 1,4,3 = $6
$0.50 - 5,2 / 1,4,3 / 5,2 = $3
Race 6 - 1 mile INNER TURF Md Clm - Action
A - #8 Page McKenney (8-1) - don't want the #2 on that layoff, Russell does his best work at Cnl with 1 mile Maidens
B - #5 Timeless Testament (6-1) - class drop, beyers ok but below par
C - #2 Last Hurrah (8/5) - would love if he wasn't coming off a 1-1/2 year layoff
D - #6 Marriage Fever (5/2)
E - #3 Calvary Raid (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-8,5,2,6
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 1-1/16 miles INNER TURF OC - Action
A - #3 Too Clever by Half (7/5) - may very well be the best and has beat this level, but 7/5 is short in this spot
B - #4 Pagan Priestess (4-1) - beyers have been within a few lengths of par
C - #5 Another Smokey (10-1) - has 2 wins at Cnl, should be running late
D - #7 Misty in Malibu (7/2) - best beyer was earned on the lead
E - #2 Cobbley's Breeze (9/2) - good beyers, but 1st out in 2013 with one published work
Multi-Race Horses-
3,4,5,7,2 - or single #3 Too Clever by Half can run his best
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - 5-1/2f TURF Md Clm - Action+
A - #4 Appealynn (5/2) - class drop, beyer within a length of par
B - #13 Brahms Bracelet (8-1) - class drop
C - #8 D' lady Is Wild (6-1)
D - #6 Asian Invasion (9/2)
E - #14 Let's Drink On It (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Card Notes-
Hopefully, we can dodge the thunderstorms and the track will stay firm.
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 2,3,4
$0.50 - 5,2 / 9,14 / 7,4 = $4
$0.50 - 5 / 9,14,1 / 7,4,1 = $4.50
$0.50 - 5,2,9 / 9 / 7,4,1 = $4.50
$0.50 - 5,2,9 / 9,14,1 / 7 = $4.50
Pick 3 - Races 3,4,5
$0.50 - 9,14 / 7,4 / 5,2 = $4
$0.50 - 9 / 7,4,1 / 5,2,1 = $4.50
$0.50 - 9,14,1 / 7 / 5,2,1 = $4.50
$0.50 - 9,14,1 / 7,4,1 / 5 = $4.50
Daily Double - Races 4,5
$1 - 7,4,1 / 5,2,1 = $9
$1 - 7,4 / 5,2 = $4
$1 - 7 / 5 = $1
Race 1 - 5-1/2f TURF MSW - Action+
A - #7 Sunbaked (9/2) - class drop, comes off a due in last out with 2 good works, breeding suggest ok on turf
B - #8 Said in Silence (3-1) - class drop, is wheeling right back, beyers put in mix
C - #6 Lady Olivia (7/5) - is cutting back and 1st out in 2013, vulnerable favorite, good last work
D - #3 Reenie (15-1)
E - #2 Sherwood Outlaw (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,8,6
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 7,8 / 7,8,6= $8
$1 - 6 / 7,8 = $2
Race 2 - 5-1/2f TURF Clm - Play
A - #5 Summer in Giza (5-1) - best early speed, may be able to wire
B - #2 Call Me Frankie (9/2) - 1st in 2013, but good last work, has run well at Cnl and distance
C - #9 Valter (3-1) - class drop and class relief from runnings in 2012
D - #4 Quetzalito (8-1)
E - #7 Castle Victory (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
5,2,9
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$3 - 5 / 2 / 9 = $3
$2 - 5 / 9 / 2 = $2
$2 - 2 / 5 / 9 = $2
$1 - 5,2 / 5,2 / 9,4,7 = $6
$0.50 - 5,2 / 9,4,7 / 9,4,7 = $6
$0.50 - 5,2 / 9,4,7 / 5,2 = $3
Race 3 - 5-1/2f TURF Md Clm - Play
A - #9 Curly Sue (7/5) - class drop, can show good early speed cutting back to sprint
B - #14 Spunky Country Gal (12-1) - class drop, bad trouble last out had to check hard lost all chance
C - #1 Campbell Creek (12-1) - class drop, but Ct runners don't win well here
D - #13 English Arms (8-1)
E - #3 Jackadee (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
9,14,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 9,14 / 9,14 = $4
$1 - 9,14 / 1,13,3 = $8
Race 4 - 5-1/2f TURF Clm - Play
A - #7 Jewelian 'n Roses (2-1) - good post, class drop, good early speed
B - #4 Cousin Brucy (3-1) - good work tab (esp last work) and sire does well with turf runners, like Russell
C - #1 Irunalatte (8-1) - Class drop, seems a cut below top 2 in here
D - #8 Hannibal Barca (6-1)
E - #5 Later Tater (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,4,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$3 - 7 / 4 / 1 = $3
$2 - 7 / 1 / 4 = $2
$2 - 4 / 7 / 1 = $2
$1 - 7,4 / 7,4 / 1,8,5 = $6
$0.50 - 7,4 / 1,8,5 / 1,8,5 = $6
$0.50 - 7,4 / 1,8,5 / 7,4 = $3
Race 5 - 5-1/2f TURF Clm - Play
A - #5 Boatyard (7/5) - good post for style, dueled in last our, younger against older but very likely
B - #2 Available (7/2) - class drop, beyers a few lengths below par, will be running late
C - #1 Silent Tale (5-1) - can close, but is shipping from Ct, definitely a cut below
D - #4 Cap'n Raymond (12-1)
E - #3 Nighcut (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
5,2,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$3 - 5 / 2 / 1 = $3
$2 - 5 / 1 / 2 = $2
$2 - 2 / 5 / 1= $2
$1 - 5,2 / 5,2 / 1,4,3 = $6
$0.50 - 5,2 / 1,4,3 / 1,4,3 = $6
$0.50 - 5,2 / 1,4,3 / 5,2 = $3
Race 6 - 1 mile INNER TURF Md Clm - Action
A - #8 Page McKenney (8-1) - don't want the #2 on that layoff, Russell does his best work at Cnl with 1 mile Maidens
B - #5 Timeless Testament (6-1) - class drop, beyers ok but below par
C - #2 Last Hurrah (8/5) - would love if he wasn't coming off a 1-1/2 year layoff
D - #6 Marriage Fever (5/2)
E - #3 Calvary Raid (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-8,5,2,6
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 1-1/16 miles INNER TURF OC - Action
A - #3 Too Clever by Half (7/5) - may very well be the best and has beat this level, but 7/5 is short in this spot
B - #4 Pagan Priestess (4-1) - beyers have been within a few lengths of par
C - #5 Another Smokey (10-1) - has 2 wins at Cnl, should be running late
D - #7 Misty in Malibu (7/2) - best beyer was earned on the lead
E - #2 Cobbley's Breeze (9/2) - good beyers, but 1st out in 2013 with one published work
Multi-Race Horses-
3,4,5,7,2 - or single #3 Too Clever by Half can run his best
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - 5-1/2f TURF Md Clm - Action+
A - #4 Appealynn (5/2) - class drop, beyer within a length of par
B - #13 Brahms Bracelet (8-1) - class drop
C - #8 D' lady Is Wild (6-1)
D - #6 Asian Invasion (9/2)
E - #14 Let's Drink On It (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Monday, June 10, 2013
Belmont Day Trip Notes
I thought the track dried out fairly well. Sometimes when there has been a lot of rain and the track has been sealed it doesn't play as you think when it returns to fast as it did later in the day, but it seemed fair enough. I had a flop of a day at Belmont, I tried to catch a few prices in the sprints, but those didn't come through and my Belmont selections were way off. Below are my trip notes and thoughts from each of the major stakes race.
Race 7 - 6f True North - Grade 2
#1 Justin Phillip - was on rail, couldn't get to leader in stretch, no excuses
#1a Fast Bullet - jumped out to a quick lead, wired field
#5 Caixa Eletronica - trailed and was never a factor, seemed flat
#6 Sage Valley - broke slow, never a factor. lost much need positioning b/c of slow break
Race 8 - 1 mile TURF Just A Game - Grade 1
#2 Stephanie's Kitten - stalked, came thru on rail, battled in stretch for win, game effort but had dream trip on rail
#6 Mizdirection - set pace, faded off turn, track conditions may not have been to liking
#7 Better Lucky - 3w on turn, took lead, ran well thru stretch, edged just before wire
Race 9 - 7f Woody Stephens - Grade 2
Race Notes - Fast early pace
#1 Declan's Warrior - shifted in late stretch to find room between horses, lost by a head, having to shift cost some momentum and ground loss
#6 Zee Bro's - was up close to fast pace, faded in final furlong backing up hard. 6f may be best distance unless against softer competition
#11 Let Em Shine - was on lead for fast pace, faded
Race 10 - 1-1/4 miles TURF Manhattan Handicap - Grade 1
#1 Point of Entry - had to fight down stretch to get by Optimizer and hold off closer, very game effort for win
#4 Real Solution - good run, but couldn't get by top 2
#5 Optimizer - stalked 2L off pace, moved on 2 Turn, got lead, was game in stretch but edged by Point of Entry. held very well for 2nd, gave Point of Entry all he wanted
Race 11 - 1-1/2 miles Belmont Stakes - Grade 1
Race Notes - solid to fast early pace for 1-1/2 mile race, all horses tired in stretch
#1 Frac Daddy - battled for lead, faded badly
#2 Freedom Child - battled for lead, faded badly
#4 Giant Finish - backed up very early in race
#5 Orb - was too far back early, made a huge run beginning mid backstretch. he circled 10 horses, but flattened in stretch. in most races the move he made would have been a winning one, but at 1-1/2 miles it is a difficult run to sustain.
#7 Oxbow - was close to fast early pace, held on well for 2nd
#9 Revolutionary - looked a contender on 2nd turn, but flattened
#12 Palace Malice - stalked, took lead turning for home, tired but ran hard for wire
#14 Golden Soul - was far back, made up some ground
One note on the Belmont Stakes, a lot of critics have said that Palace Malice came home in :27 and change, and that Orb couldn't close into that 1/4 mile fraction. That is true but, Orb had already been running hard since mid backstretch and had circled 10 horse by the time they came off the 2nd turn. I think a better way to analyze Orb's performance is to look at the fractions of Orb and Oxbow from the 4f mark to the 10f mark. Using the slightly rudimentary scale of 1/5 of a second equals 1 length here are the fractional times from 4f to 10f:
Pace 1:06.56
Oxbow 1:06.54
Orb 1:04.66 (that's only a fifth of a second slower than he ran his final 6f in the Kentucky Derby)
Orb made up a considerable amount of ground during that time, running almost a full 2 seconds faster than Oxbow. That move will win a lot of races in North America, not to mention that he passed a lot of decent horses like they were standing still. But, unfortunately because of the energy expended, this is not a move that wins a lot of races at 1-1/2 miles races on the dirt...unless of course, your name is Calidoscopio!
It should be an interesting summer of racing, Oxbow is the little engine that could and he'll win his fair share of races when he is on or close to the lead and in top form. Orb should not be discounted off his Preakness and Belmont efforts, while the Preakness effort seemed dull his Belmont race may have been better than it looked. But, it will however help his odds next time out!
And for now, I'm really interested to turn my attention to the handicap division and my home track of Colonial Downs.
Race 7 - 6f True North - Grade 2
#1 Justin Phillip - was on rail, couldn't get to leader in stretch, no excuses
#1a Fast Bullet - jumped out to a quick lead, wired field
#5 Caixa Eletronica - trailed and was never a factor, seemed flat
#6 Sage Valley - broke slow, never a factor. lost much need positioning b/c of slow break
Race 8 - 1 mile TURF Just A Game - Grade 1
#2 Stephanie's Kitten - stalked, came thru on rail, battled in stretch for win, game effort but had dream trip on rail
#6 Mizdirection - set pace, faded off turn, track conditions may not have been to liking
#7 Better Lucky - 3w on turn, took lead, ran well thru stretch, edged just before wire
Race 9 - 7f Woody Stephens - Grade 2
Race Notes - Fast early pace
#1 Declan's Warrior - shifted in late stretch to find room between horses, lost by a head, having to shift cost some momentum and ground loss
#6 Zee Bro's - was up close to fast pace, faded in final furlong backing up hard. 6f may be best distance unless against softer competition
#11 Let Em Shine - was on lead for fast pace, faded
Race 10 - 1-1/4 miles TURF Manhattan Handicap - Grade 1
#1 Point of Entry - had to fight down stretch to get by Optimizer and hold off closer, very game effort for win
#4 Real Solution - good run, but couldn't get by top 2
#5 Optimizer - stalked 2L off pace, moved on 2 Turn, got lead, was game in stretch but edged by Point of Entry. held very well for 2nd, gave Point of Entry all he wanted
Race 11 - 1-1/2 miles Belmont Stakes - Grade 1
Race Notes - solid to fast early pace for 1-1/2 mile race, all horses tired in stretch
#1 Frac Daddy - battled for lead, faded badly
#2 Freedom Child - battled for lead, faded badly
#4 Giant Finish - backed up very early in race
#5 Orb - was too far back early, made a huge run beginning mid backstretch. he circled 10 horses, but flattened in stretch. in most races the move he made would have been a winning one, but at 1-1/2 miles it is a difficult run to sustain.
#7 Oxbow - was close to fast early pace, held on well for 2nd
#9 Revolutionary - looked a contender on 2nd turn, but flattened
#12 Palace Malice - stalked, took lead turning for home, tired but ran hard for wire
#14 Golden Soul - was far back, made up some ground
One note on the Belmont Stakes, a lot of critics have said that Palace Malice came home in :27 and change, and that Orb couldn't close into that 1/4 mile fraction. That is true but, Orb had already been running hard since mid backstretch and had circled 10 horse by the time they came off the 2nd turn. I think a better way to analyze Orb's performance is to look at the fractions of Orb and Oxbow from the 4f mark to the 10f mark. Using the slightly rudimentary scale of 1/5 of a second equals 1 length here are the fractional times from 4f to 10f:
Pace 1:06.56
Oxbow 1:06.54
Orb 1:04.66 (that's only a fifth of a second slower than he ran his final 6f in the Kentucky Derby)
Orb made up a considerable amount of ground during that time, running almost a full 2 seconds faster than Oxbow. That move will win a lot of races in North America, not to mention that he passed a lot of decent horses like they were standing still. But, unfortunately because of the energy expended, this is not a move that wins a lot of races at 1-1/2 miles races on the dirt...unless of course, your name is Calidoscopio!
It should be an interesting summer of racing, Oxbow is the little engine that could and he'll win his fair share of races when he is on or close to the lead and in top form. Orb should not be discounted off his Preakness and Belmont efforts, while the Preakness effort seemed dull his Belmont race may have been better than it looked. But, it will however help his odds next time out!
And for now, I'm really interested to turn my attention to the handicap division and my home track of Colonial Downs.
Saturday, June 8, 2013
Belmont 6-8-2013 - Belmont Stakes Day Races
Updated 11:22am.
Card Notes-
I'm hoping the track will dry out some as the day progress. Sunshine and wind into the afternoon should help.
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 4 - Races 8,9,10,11
$0.50 - 6,3,2,4 / 6,1,9,11 / 1,8 / 5 = $16
$0.50 - 6,3,2,4 / 6,1,9,11 / 1 / 5,9,13,3,2,14 = $48
Race 6 - 1-1/16 miles Easy Goer Stakes - Action+
A - #4 Doherty (6-1) - I think he'll give Power Broker a run for his money and for better value
B - #2 Power Broker (7/5) - the obvious choice
C - #9 Irsaal (4-1) - another one with the ability to upset
D - #8 Wabbajack (8-1)
E - #6 Eton Blue (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
4,2,9
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 6f True North G2 - Play
A - #6 Sage Valley (5/2) - another run close to his last two puts him on top
B - #1 Justin Phillip (7/5) - has won two in a row, but can be a money burner, will be running in stretch
C - #5 Caixa Eletronica (7/2) - old guy can get it done on his best day, will need to rebound from last out, won this last year
D - #2 Laurie's Rocket (12-1) - beyer's suggest a cut below best in here, exotics value
E - #1a Fast Bullet (7/5) - coupled, but if JP scratches it would move him up, note the high beyers have come on poly and that doesn't allows transfer to dirt
Multi-Race Horses-
6,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$10 Win #6
Race 8 - 1 mi TURF Just A Game Gr 1 - Action+
A - #6 Mizdirection (7/2) - hoping Smith can get her on the lead or just off the leader and kick home, like the post for the trip
B - #3 Centre Court (3-1) - very much the class of the race G1 & G2 record is 4-2-0 from 6 starts, would not be a surprise
C - #2 Stephanie's Kitten(5/2) - another one with plenty of class, will be closing late
D - #4 Dayatthespa (6-1) - good value on this G1 winner, should be up close or on the lead
E - #1 Hungry Island (4-1) - got the best of Winter Memories last year, but is without a G1 win
Multi-Race Horses-
6,3,2,4
Race Notes-
There will probably be value in the Exacta, if you have a good opinion you could potentially score there.
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 6,3 / 6,3 = $4
$1 - 6,3 / 2,4,1 = $6
Race 9 - 7f Woody Stephens G2 - Action+
A - #6 Zee Bros (4-1) - with that effort last out 4-1 would be a dream, the recent work suggest he is holding his form, 7f should be within his scope against this bunch
B - #1 Declan's Warrior (8-1) - Zito is high on this horse, 2 for 2 at Belmont and distance, value
C - #9 Clearly Now (8-1)
D - #11 Let Em Shine (3-1)
E - #7 Forty Tales (5-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,1,9,11
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$10 Win #6 - if odds are 2-1 or higher
Race 10 - 1-1/4miles TURF Manhattan Handicap G1 - Play
A - #1 Point of Entry (3/5) - is way the class of this field, but will need to work out a trip from post 1
B - #8 Twilight Eclipse (8-1) - is 2 for 3 in G2 races, may sit a great trip from post 8
C - #5 Optimizer (6-1) - should relish the wet turf, does better in G3 company, but should mix up exotics
D - #7 Bombaguia (15-1) - will be up close, not sure he's got the class, bottom of exotics
E - #6 Plainview (30-1) - never gone this distance, will go for lead and may hang on in exotics, screams value
Multi-Race Horses-
1,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 1 / 8,5 / 8,5,7,6,9 = $8
$1 - 8 / 1,5 = $2
Race 11 - 1-1/2 miles Belmont Stakes G1 - Play
A - #5 Orb (3-1) - is class of race and really is his race to lose, he runs even splits and that type of horse does well in the Belmont
B - #9 Revolutionary (9/2) - have liked this horse since the Withers, he is as game as they come and I thought his finish in the Kentucky Derby could have been a little better if he didn't have to wait behind horses on the far turn. He should like the outside post.
C - #13 Unlimited Budget (8-1) - I always love a filly against the boys, I shopped around for a horse that is going to sit close to the lead and could take over turning for home, this is wear I landed. Look for her to get out of the gate quick to secure a good stalking position.
D - #3 Overanalyze (12-1) - though it was slow I still like the way he was finishing in the Arkansas Derby. Not sure he'll like the off track, but he does offer some value in the exotics.
E - #2 Freedom Child (8-1) - should like the track and will be forwardly places if not on the lead. Shaded 1:00 in his last workout. In both wins he has been loose on the lead and I'm not sure he'll get that here and then the question becomes how far will he fade at 1-1/2 miles.
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#7 Oxbow (5-1) - has every right move fwd again, but the distance is a question and all his wins have come on the lead as well.
#14 Golden Soul (10-1) - has a lot of up side with the way he finished in the Kentucky Derby, but off the pace style runners rarely win the Belmont.
#11 Vyjack (20-1) - fired a get work last out, but this horse is always like rolling the dice for my, definite bottom of trifecta and superfecta use
#12 Palace Malice (15-1) - needs to right the ship, but with blinkers off and a solid work tab he could be a contender. Plus Mike Smith knows how to win on this track.
Multi-Race Horses-
5,9,13
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 5 / 9,13,3,2 / 9,13,3,2,7,14,11 = $24.00
$1 - 9,13,3,2 / 5 = $4
Card Notes-
I'm hoping the track will dry out some as the day progress. Sunshine and wind into the afternoon should help.
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 4 - Races 8,9,10,11
$0.50 - 6,3,2,4 / 6,1,9,11 / 1,8 / 5 = $16
$0.50 - 6,3,2,4 / 6,1,9,11 / 1 / 5,9,13,3,2,14 = $48
Race 6 - 1-1/16 miles Easy Goer Stakes - Action+
A - #4 Doherty (6-1) - I think he'll give Power Broker a run for his money and for better value
B - #2 Power Broker (7/5) - the obvious choice
C - #9 Irsaal (4-1) - another one with the ability to upset
D - #8 Wabbajack (8-1)
E - #6 Eton Blue (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
4,2,9
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 6f True North G2 - Play
A - #6 Sage Valley (5/2) - another run close to his last two puts him on top
B - #1 Justin Phillip (7/5) - has won two in a row, but can be a money burner, will be running in stretch
C - #5 Caixa Eletronica (7/2) - old guy can get it done on his best day, will need to rebound from last out, won this last year
D - #2 Laurie's Rocket (12-1) - beyer's suggest a cut below best in here, exotics value
E - #1a Fast Bullet (7/5) - coupled, but if JP scratches it would move him up, note the high beyers have come on poly and that doesn't allows transfer to dirt
Multi-Race Horses-
6,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$10 Win #6
Race 8 - 1 mi TURF Just A Game Gr 1 - Action+
A - #6 Mizdirection (7/2) - hoping Smith can get her on the lead or just off the leader and kick home, like the post for the trip
B - #3 Centre Court (3-1) - very much the class of the race G1 & G2 record is 4-2-0 from 6 starts, would not be a surprise
C - #2 Stephanie's Kitten(5/2) - another one with plenty of class, will be closing late
D - #4 Dayatthespa (6-1) - good value on this G1 winner, should be up close or on the lead
E - #1 Hungry Island (4-1) - got the best of Winter Memories last year, but is without a G1 win
Multi-Race Horses-
6,3,2,4
Race Notes-
There will probably be value in the Exacta, if you have a good opinion you could potentially score there.
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 6,3 / 6,3 = $4
$1 - 6,3 / 2,4,1 = $6
Race 9 - 7f Woody Stephens G2 - Action+
A - #6 Zee Bros (4-1) - with that effort last out 4-1 would be a dream, the recent work suggest he is holding his form, 7f should be within his scope against this bunch
B - #1 Declan's Warrior (8-1) - Zito is high on this horse, 2 for 2 at Belmont and distance, value
C - #9 Clearly Now (8-1)
D - #11 Let Em Shine (3-1)
E - #7 Forty Tales (5-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,1,9,11
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$10 Win #6 - if odds are 2-1 or higher
Race 10 - 1-1/4miles TURF Manhattan Handicap G1 - Play
A - #1 Point of Entry (3/5) - is way the class of this field, but will need to work out a trip from post 1
B - #8 Twilight Eclipse (8-1) - is 2 for 3 in G2 races, may sit a great trip from post 8
C - #5 Optimizer (6-1) - should relish the wet turf, does better in G3 company, but should mix up exotics
D - #7 Bombaguia (15-1) - will be up close, not sure he's got the class, bottom of exotics
E - #6 Plainview (30-1) - never gone this distance, will go for lead and may hang on in exotics, screams value
Multi-Race Horses-
1,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 1 / 8,5 / 8,5,7,6,9 = $8
$1 - 8 / 1,5 = $2
Race 11 - 1-1/2 miles Belmont Stakes G1 - Play
A - #5 Orb (3-1) - is class of race and really is his race to lose, he runs even splits and that type of horse does well in the Belmont
B - #9 Revolutionary (9/2) - have liked this horse since the Withers, he is as game as they come and I thought his finish in the Kentucky Derby could have been a little better if he didn't have to wait behind horses on the far turn. He should like the outside post.
C - #13 Unlimited Budget (8-1) - I always love a filly against the boys, I shopped around for a horse that is going to sit close to the lead and could take over turning for home, this is wear I landed. Look for her to get out of the gate quick to secure a good stalking position.
D - #3 Overanalyze (12-1) - though it was slow I still like the way he was finishing in the Arkansas Derby. Not sure he'll like the off track, but he does offer some value in the exotics.
E - #2 Freedom Child (8-1) - should like the track and will be forwardly places if not on the lead. Shaded 1:00 in his last workout. In both wins he has been loose on the lead and I'm not sure he'll get that here and then the question becomes how far will he fade at 1-1/2 miles.
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#7 Oxbow (5-1) - has every right move fwd again, but the distance is a question and all his wins have come on the lead as well.
#14 Golden Soul (10-1) - has a lot of up side with the way he finished in the Kentucky Derby, but off the pace style runners rarely win the Belmont.
#11 Vyjack (20-1) - fired a get work last out, but this horse is always like rolling the dice for my, definite bottom of trifecta and superfecta use
#12 Palace Malice (15-1) - needs to right the ship, but with blinkers off and a solid work tab he could be a contender. Plus Mike Smith knows how to win on this track.
Multi-Race Horses-
5,9,13
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 5 / 9,13,3,2 / 9,13,3,2,7,14,11 = $24.00
$1 - 9,13,3,2 / 5 = $4
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)