Did You Know...
That 91% of the last 22 Kentucky Derby winners share common stat? In this years Kentucky Derby there are 5 horses that meet the criteria. Find out which ones in our Kentucky Derby Stats Guide.
Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 2 - 6-1/2f OC - Play
A - #9 Conquest Serenade (3-1) - should get a good trip from the outside and has been working really well. Numbers fit here.
B - #8 Bold Quality (7/2) - comes in after a layoff, last race was BC Juvenile Fillies, had a nice blowout on the 28th
C - #1 Vickie Wins (4-1) - is one of several speed horses in the race and could be the speed of the speed from post position #1
D - #2 Blast (4-1)
E - #6 Tia Flor (8-1)
Value Add - #7 American Holiday (10-1) - add to the bottom of your exotics for a possible boost
Multi-Race Horses: 9,8
Suggest Plays:
$0.50 - 9,8 / 9,8 / 1,2,6,7 = $4
$0.50 - 9,8 / 1,2,6,7 / 9,8 = $4
$1 - 9,8 / 9,8,1,2,6 = $8
Race 3 - 1mi OC - Action+
A - #6 Street Song (6-1) - has been working very well and may sit the right trip, should be closer to the pace with the addition of blinkers
B - #1 Paid Up Subscriber (3-1) - has won over the CD surface and has the best speed figures, will need to work out a trip from the rail
C - #3 Academic Break (5-1) - has two wins over the CD surface, debut race in 2016 and has had several good workouts, but may need a race
D - #5 Contrasting (5-1) - could be the lone speed of the race, which is always dangerous
E - #9 Misleading Lady (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 6,1,3,5,
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 6,1,3 / 6,1,3,5 = $9
Race 4 - 1-1/16 miles OC - Play
A - #7 Family Tree (9/5) - is working well and just seems much the best in here
B - #4 Firsthand Report (6-1) - could be the lone speed of the race
C - #5 Yankee Lass (6-1)
D - #2 Divine Elegance (8-1)
E - #6 Smart Emma (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 7,4
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 7,4 / 7,4,5,2,6 = $8
$0.50 - 7 / 4,5,2,6 / 4,5,2,6 = $8
Race 5 - 1mi MSW TURF - Action
A - #8 Commend (5/2) - ran one of the #'s in the field last out while just missing, looking for a good effort today
B - #4 Dasaateer (8-1)
C - #11 Go Navy Go (8-1)
D - #3 Uncle Guy (6-1)
E - #5 Tom's d'Etat (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 8,4,11,3,5
Suggest Plays:
Race 6 - 1-1/16 miles La Troienne G1 - Play
A - #2 Sheer Drama (8/5) - has been working extremely well and is likely sitting on a huge effort, but at a short price
B - #1 Curalina (9/5) - another one that has been working well and has a win over the CD surface
C - #5 Penwith (7/2) - could get loose on the lead
D - #3 Angela Renee (6-1)
E - #4 Brooklynsway (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 2,1,5
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 2,1,5 / 2,1,5 = $6
$1 - 2 / 1,5,3,4 = $4
$0.50 - 2 / 1,5 / 1,5,3,4,7 = $4
Race 7 - 7f Eight Belles Stakes G2 - Play
A - #5 Carina Mia (8/5) - has been working extremely well and has a win over the CD surface. Was close in the G1 Ashland last out against some really good competition, but couldn't hang on. Will need to be the speed of the speed to win.
B - #8 Nickname (3-1) - may get the right trip on the outside and if the speed fails she should be in the right position to take over
C - #6 Blip n' The Bye (12-1)
D - #2 Jade Princess (8-1)
E - #3 Summer Reading (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 5,8
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5,8 / 5,8 = $4
$1 - 5,8 / 5,8,6,2,3,1 = $10
$0.50 - 5,8 / 5,8 / 6,2,3,1 = $4
$0.50 - 5,8 / 6,2,3,1 / 5,8 = $4
Race 8 - 5f Turf Sprint TURF G3 - Action+
A - #12 Guns Loaded (4-1) - can really close late, should be right there at the finish and there is plenty of speed to help
B - #1 Power Alert (5-1) - has a win over the CD turf and is 50% at this distance
C - #11 Something Extra (4-1)
D - #7 Hootenanny (7/2)
E - #2 Summation Time (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 12,1,11,7
Suggest Plays:
Lots of value, good time to use Exacta boxes
Race 9 - 1-1/16 miles Alysheba G2 - Action+
A - #4 Eagle (7/2) - has been working well and did post a nice improvement in last race, a little pace would help too
B - #1 Cat Burglar (4-1) - has posted two nice speed figures in last two races and is 2 for 2 at this distance, should have enough gate speed to workout a trip
C - #6 Majestic Affair (9/2) - dropping in class, working well and is 2 for 2 at this distance
D - #7 Top Billing (10-1) - has been working well leading up to this
E - #3 Departing (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 4,1,6,7
Suggest Plays:
Lots of choices, could be plenty of value in Exacta
$1 - 4,1,6 / 4,1,6 = $6
Race 10 - 1-1/16 miles Edgewood G3 TURF - Action
A - #10 Catch a Glimpse (2-1) - is undefeated on the turf in 5 starts and has a win at this distance. I cannot go against horses like this because I have been beaten so many times by them.
B - #9 Believe in Bertie (20-1) - is very likely the speed of the race
C - #13 Heavenly View (15-1) - is 2 for 2 on the turf, hopefully she will not get parked too wide
D - #1 Harmonize (4-1) - always seems to run well on turf and should be close at the finish
E - #5 Ava's Kitten (7/2)
Multi-Race Horses: 10,9,13,1,3
Suggest Plays:
Race 11 - 1-1/8 miles Kentucky Oaks - Play
A - #11 Rachel's Valentina (7/2) - She drew really well to get a good stalking trip. I love her consistent over 100 par ratings and I think she ran the best race in the Ashland where she sat close to pace that had solid fractions, esp through the middle portion of the race. Then she dueled in the stretch, put away that Cathryn Sophia only to get caught by Weep No More at the wire. And, it doesn't hurt that her dam won this race by 20 lengths. She's definitely the horse to beat.
B - #3 Lewis Bay (8-1) - Exploded to win the Gazelle last out. Has been training well, but I think her most appealing quality is that she has won twice at 1-1/8 miles - no other horse in the field has won at that distance. Definite win contender and exotics use.
C - #8 Royal Obsession (20-1) - She won over the CD dirt and I like that. She's improved with every start and has been working well. Not sure she is fast enough to win without a big step forward, but I'd definitely include her in my exotics at a big price.
D - #2 Weep No More (9/2) - Ran a good race last out in the Ashland to get up at the wire after racing well off of the pace. I do think she had some pace help in that race that she may not get here, but you know she'll be running late. She is 1 of 4 horses that ran 100 or greater on our par rating scale in her last race and those horses hit the exotics at a high percentage. Possible win contender, definite exotics use.
E - #12 Cathryn Sophia (9/2) - Made a good run into the stretch of the Ashland, but was out dueled by Rachel's Valentina. Has run some good numbers and is 4 for 5. But, 82% of the winners of the Kentucky Oaks have finished 1st or 2nd in their previous race and she was third by a small margin. She is not without a chance, though I like others better and I'm not willing to go against the 82% stat. Going to use her in the exotics, but not in the win category.
Value Adds -
#6 Mokat (20-1) - has been working extremely well and could blow up the exotics if she can hit the board
#5 Land Over Sea (5-1) - is a shorter price, but is working well and could definitely hit the board and possibly have an upset chance to win
Multi-Race Horses: 11,3
Suggest Plays:
$0.50 - 11 / 3,8,2,12 / 3,8,2,12,4,6,13 = $14
$0.50 - 3,8,2,12 / 11 / 3,8,2,12,4,6,13 = $14
$1- 11,3,8 / 11,3,8,2,12,6,4,13,9 = $24
Oaks/Derby Double
$1 - 11,3,8,2,12 / 11,15,13 = $15
$1 - 11,3 / 11,15,13,9,14,17,2,19,3 = $18
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