Belmont Course Stats Guide
Coming next week a Belmont Course Stats Guide will be available from Big Day Stats. This guide will be a sample of 773 races on both dirt and turf from Belmont Park. The guide will contain statistics on Post Positions, Jockeys, Trainers, Average Payouts and Par Times. All broken down by distance, surface and track condition. To sign up to be notified when it is released go to BigDayStats.com and sign up for Future Stat Guide Updates at the bottom of the page.
Updated 1:00pm EST.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 5 - 1-1/16mi Bernard Baruch H. G2 TURF - Play
A - #4 Wise Dan (3/5) - making his first start since his colic surgery, he's the most likely and even if he is 80% he can handle these. With that said, I also wouldn't blame anyone for taking a stand against him. You never know how horses will come back after a layoff.
B - #1 Bio Pro (5-1) - looks to be the main danger to Wise Dan, he ran a solid race last time out in the Lure Stakes and I always have respect for Bill Mott.
C - #8 Five Iron (8-1) - figures to be on the pace, not sure how far he'll fade in the stretch, exotics
D - #1a Boisterous (5-1) - doesn't seem like this will be his best distance, esp. versus these, but could still grab a piece of the exotics (5-1)
E - #2 Optimizer (30-1) - always in the exacta at this distance on the turf and 3 for 4 on the turf at Saratoga. He's got some class and could really boost the exotics if he can find some of his 2013 form. Exotics.
Note: The 1 and 1a are a coupled entry, however I separated them in my selections in case of a scratch.
Multi-Race Horses: 4,1
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 4,1 / 4,1 = $6
$2 - 4 / 1,8,2 = $6 - HIT $69.50
Race 8 - 6f Prioress G2 - Action+
A - #6 Miss Behaviour (5/2) - should sit a good trip considering her style and post position. 3 for 3 at this distance.
B - #5 Sweet Whiskey (2-1) - ran second two back to Sweet Reason in the G1 Acorn, her speed figures and class make her the favorite, but she is vulnerable.
C - #1 Thirteen Arrows (8-1) - interesting to see Jones ship this one in and the recent workout suggest she's fit. I expect Rosie will try to be up front breaking from the #1 post. But, she'll need a big step forward to tackle the top two. Exotics.
D - #7 Tea Time (12-1) - is 2 for 3 at this distance with some recent non graded stakes wins, don't see her winning, but she would definitely boost the exotics.
E - #3 Southern Honey (10-1) - Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 6,5,1
Suggest Plays:
Race 10 - 7f Forego G1 - Play
A - #8 Clearly Now (7/5) - with his recent form, he's the most likely winner. I like the outside post for his stalking style and there should enough pace for him to close.
B - #6 Palace (3-1) - the other obvious contender and at 3-1 he may offer the best value in the win pool. He should stalk the pace and will try to get the jump on Clearly Now turning for home.
C - #10 Confrontation (10-1) - has been improving as he moved up thru the ranks, he figures to be close to the pace and is 3 for 3 at Sar. Exotics value, with a mild upset chance.
D - #9 Weekend Holiday (10-1) - speed horse is 3 for 4 at Sar, should be in the exotics mix.
E - #2 Big Business (15-1) - is 3 for 3 at this distance, speed figures suggest he could be in the exotics.
Multi-Race Horses: 8,6
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 8,6 / 8,6 / 10,9,2 = $12
$1 - 8,6 / 10,9,2 / 8,6 = $6
Race 11 - 1-1/8mi Woodward Stakes G1 - Play
A - #2 Itsmyluckyday (5/2) - I expect to see Lopez send him from the gate to establish a good position, looking for him to turn the tables are Moreno
B - #4 Moreno (2-1) - Unless Itsmyluckyday presses him he may find himself all alone on the lead, which makes him dangerous - as he has proven. Still with Itsmyluckyday drawing the rail, it should make for an interesting race.
C - #5 Prayer for Relief (12-1) - this horse loves to run in the exotics and if Moreno and Itsmyluckyday hook up early it will help his style. Exotics use.
D - #6 Zivo (5-1) - has been improving, but is a stone closer and his only hope is if Moreno and Itsmyluckyday hook up early.
E - #8 Last Gunfighter (15-1) - will be closing late and would be a nice boost to the exotics.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,4
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2,4 / 2,4 / 5,6,8 = $12 - HIT $184.48
$1 - 2,4 / 5,6,8 / 2,4 = $6
Saturday, August 30, 2014
Sunday, August 24, 2014
8/24 Del Mar - Pacific Classic Day Stakes Races
Updated 3:40pm EST.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 5 - 1 mile Del Mar Mile Handicap G2 TURF - Prime
A - #1 Obviously (7/5) - by far the most accomplished horse in the field, could easily find himself alone on the lead, which is how he as won 8 out of 11 starts at this distance on the turf.
B - #2 Tom's Tribute (2-1) - should sit a stalking trip, but I'm not sure he'll get the pace setup he'll need. Still he is a G1 winner and looks like the only possibility to upset Obviously.
C - #4 Handsome Mike (15-1) - don't see him winning this, but definite exotics use
D - #8 He Be Fire N Ice (10-1) - has run well on the turf before, but the pace setup may not help his off the pace style. Exotics.
E - #6 Rock Me Baby (6-1) - bottom end exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 1
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 1 / 2 / 4,8 = $6
$1 - 1 / 2 / 4,8,6 = $3
$1 - 1 / 4,8,6 / 2 = $3
Race 9 - 7f Pat O'Brien Stakes G2 - Action+
A - #5 Goldencents (5/2) - didn't get off to the best start last out, but is always game and 7f to 1 mile is his best distance, though I do think he prefers the dirt a little better that artificial.
B - #2 Fed Biz (2-1) - can be a monster when he shows up and he's won 3 out of 4 synthetic starts all will 100+ Beyer speed figures.
C - #3 Silentio (8-1) - switches from turf to synthetic, if he takes to the surface he should be in the mix, esp. in the exotics, probably the best value in the race
D - #7 Big Macher (3-1) - should be up close and got the best of Goldencents last out, though the latter did have trouble. Exotics.
E - #6 Color of Courage (15-1) - an exotics booster that has 4 wins and some good beyers on synthetic.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,2,3
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5,2 / 5,2 = $4 - HIT $13.00
$1 - 5,2 / 5,2,3,7,6 = $8 - HIT $6.50
Race 10 - 1-1/4 miles Pacific Classic G1 - Play
A - #5 Game On Dude (3-1) - with his proven ability over synthetic and at this distance I think it is crazy not to take 3-1 on him. Certainly, Shared Belief poses a big threat and Game On Dude hasn't run as well this year, but when he decides to show up 3-1 is a lot of value on this horse.
B - #11 Shared Belief (5/2) - he's 4 for 4 on synthetic, but this talented 3 year old is really stepping into the deep end of the pool for the first time. Definite win contender.
C - #9 Clubhouse Ride (8-1) - seems to hang around a lot in the exotics, but Del Mar doesn't seem to be his preferred surface, still his value could help out a trifecta or superfecta
D - #7 Majestic Harbor (9/2) - got the best of Clubhouse Ride, Imperative and Game On Dude last out. He doesn't have much synthetic form to look at, but his most recent workout over the surfaces looks good.
E - #3 Imperative (20-1) - with the right trip he could really boost the exotics. Exotic value.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,11
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5,11 / 5,11 / 9,7,3 = $6
$1 - 5,11 / 9,7,3 / 5,11 = $3
$1 - 5,11 / 9,7,3 / 9,7,3 = $12
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 5 - 1 mile Del Mar Mile Handicap G2 TURF - Prime
A - #1 Obviously (7/5) - by far the most accomplished horse in the field, could easily find himself alone on the lead, which is how he as won 8 out of 11 starts at this distance on the turf.
B - #2 Tom's Tribute (2-1) - should sit a stalking trip, but I'm not sure he'll get the pace setup he'll need. Still he is a G1 winner and looks like the only possibility to upset Obviously.
C - #4 Handsome Mike (15-1) - don't see him winning this, but definite exotics use
D - #8 He Be Fire N Ice (10-1) - has run well on the turf before, but the pace setup may not help his off the pace style. Exotics.
E - #6 Rock Me Baby (6-1) - bottom end exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 1
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 1 / 2 / 4,8 = $6
$1 - 1 / 2 / 4,8,6 = $3
$1 - 1 / 4,8,6 / 2 = $3
Race 9 - 7f Pat O'Brien Stakes G2 - Action+
A - #5 Goldencents (5/2) - didn't get off to the best start last out, but is always game and 7f to 1 mile is his best distance, though I do think he prefers the dirt a little better that artificial.
B - #2 Fed Biz (2-1) - can be a monster when he shows up and he's won 3 out of 4 synthetic starts all will 100+ Beyer speed figures.
C - #3 Silentio (8-1) - switches from turf to synthetic, if he takes to the surface he should be in the mix, esp. in the exotics, probably the best value in the race
D - #7 Big Macher (3-1) - should be up close and got the best of Goldencents last out, though the latter did have trouble. Exotics.
E - #6 Color of Courage (15-1) - an exotics booster that has 4 wins and some good beyers on synthetic.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,2,3
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5,2 / 5,2 = $4 - HIT $13.00
$1 - 5,2 / 5,2,3,7,6 = $8 - HIT $6.50
Race 10 - 1-1/4 miles Pacific Classic G1 - Play
A - #5 Game On Dude (3-1) - with his proven ability over synthetic and at this distance I think it is crazy not to take 3-1 on him. Certainly, Shared Belief poses a big threat and Game On Dude hasn't run as well this year, but when he decides to show up 3-1 is a lot of value on this horse.
B - #11 Shared Belief (5/2) - he's 4 for 4 on synthetic, but this talented 3 year old is really stepping into the deep end of the pool for the first time. Definite win contender.
C - #9 Clubhouse Ride (8-1) - seems to hang around a lot in the exotics, but Del Mar doesn't seem to be his preferred surface, still his value could help out a trifecta or superfecta
D - #7 Majestic Harbor (9/2) - got the best of Clubhouse Ride, Imperative and Game On Dude last out. He doesn't have much synthetic form to look at, but his most recent workout over the surfaces looks good.
E - #3 Imperative (20-1) - with the right trip he could really boost the exotics. Exotic value.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,11
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5,11 / 5,11 / 9,7,3 = $6
$1 - 5,11 / 9,7,3 / 5,11 = $3
$1 - 5,11 / 9,7,3 / 9,7,3 = $12
Saturday, August 23, 2014
8/23 Saratoga - Travers Day Stakes Races
Updated 10:12 am EST.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 9 - 1-1/16 miles Ballston Spa G2 TURF - Action+
A - #4 Strathnaver (6-1) - always closes well and had a near miss in the G1 Just a Game against some good company.
B - #7 Filimbi (2-1) - with the triple digit Beyer she'll be over bet and she catches a classy group here, beatable favorite
C - #2 Centre Court (5-1) - likes this distance and is a G1 winner, some pace will help and I'm not sure she is going to get it in this race.
D - #3 Abaco (4-1) - plenty of class with good exacta and trifecta finishes in graded company, still she rarely puts it together for a win, strictly exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,4,7
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 4,7 / 4,7 / 2,3 = $8
$1 - 4,7 / 2,3 / 4,7 = $4
$0.50 - 4,7 / 2,3 / 2,3 = $2
Race 10 - 7f King's Bishop G1 - Play
A - #2 Wildcat Red (4-1) - I really like him in this spot, during the run up to the Ky Derby he proved he is a game horse. Looking for him to press the pace or sit just behind the leaders.
B - #8 Coup de Grace (2-1) - has post some really good improving speed figures and there should be plenty of pace to run into. Seems to be working well and the outside post gives him a clear path. He'll be the one they'll be trying to hold off late.
C - #4 Noble Cornerstone (15-1) - stalking style may do him well here and the price would be a great exotics boost.
D - #7 The Big Beast (5/2) - triple digit Beyer last out was earned while racing on a loose lead, not looking for him to repeat that effort. Exotics use.
E - #6 Fast Anna (6-1) - would have tossed this one completely, but the workouts and Velazquez intrigue me enough to give him an exotics shot.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,8
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 2,8 / 2,8 = $6
$1 - 2,8 / 4,7,6 = $6
Race 11 - 7f Ballerina G1 - Play
A - #4 My Miss Aurelia (3-1) - a resurgence of her 2012 form would make her tough to beat. No doubt the loves this track and with her tactical speed I think the distance hits her just right. She's won twice at 6-1/2 furlongs.
B - #5 Willet (6-1) - always in the exacta at Saratoga. He should be able to sit just off the pace and there should be plenty of pace for her to run into.
C - #2 Better Lucky (4-1) - got the best of Grace Hall and My Miss Aurelia last out, but not by much. I think MMA can turn the tables on her second off the layoff.
D - #6 La Verdad (7/2) - lots of speed and is 10 of 12 lifetime in the exacta, but that has come against lesser competition. Plenty of early speed, the question is how far will she fade. Exotics use.
E - #8 Hot Stones (6-1) - should get a good trip and her speed figures put her in the mix. Pace will help. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 4,5,2
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 4,5 / 4,5 / 2,6,8 = $6
$0.50 - 4,5 / 2,6,8 / 4,5 = $3
$0.50 - 4,5 / 2,6,8 / 2,6,8 = $6
Race 12 - 1-1/4 mile Travers Stakes G1- Play
A - #2 Bayern (2-1) - Cross out his Preakness effort, he was in all kinds of trouble that day and was taken completely out of his game. Anytime Baffert ships I always take notice. His 106 par rating in the Haskell sticks out amongst this bunch. He'll have to prove himself going the extra furlong, but if he can shake loose on the lead he'll be dangerous. 90% of the Travers winners finished 1st or 2nd in their previous start. 79% ran in a Triple Crown race. Definite win contender from lots of angles.
B - #7 Wicked Strong (7/2) - Changed up his running style last out when he pressed the pace and then took over the lead in the Jim Dandy. Has a lot going for him statistical wise and I like the outside draw. I give him a slight edge over Tonalist to upset Bayern.
C - #6 Tonalist (3-1) - Ran a great race in the Belmont, but couldn't get to Wicked Strong in the Jim Dandy. However, the pace was slow early on in that race. He'll need someone to challenge Bayern up front, but at least he's already proven the added distance won't be an issue. One of just 3 horses in this field that ran above the average running time (par) in a major 3 year old race. Definite win contender.
D - #3 Charge Now (15-1) - Has not raced in any major 3 year old races thus far this year, but he is improving and I have tremendous respect for how Bill Mott places his horses. Looks to be sitting on a good race. Exotics boost.
E - #8 Kid Cruz (12-1) - Seems a cut below the best in here based on his major 3 year old races this year. However, it should be noted that he won the 150K Easy Goer by 3 lengths and the Grade 3 Dwyer by almost a length. Both stakes were at Belmont and Ulanbator was in the Dwyer. Doesn't look like a win contender without a big step forward, but he could definitely plod along into the exotics. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,7,6
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2,7 / 2,7,6 = $8
$1 - 2,7 / 3,8 = $4
Good Luck!
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 9 - 1-1/16 miles Ballston Spa G2 TURF - Action+
A - #4 Strathnaver (6-1) - always closes well and had a near miss in the G1 Just a Game against some good company.
B - #7 Filimbi (2-1) - with the triple digit Beyer she'll be over bet and she catches a classy group here, beatable favorite
C - #2 Centre Court (5-1) - likes this distance and is a G1 winner, some pace will help and I'm not sure she is going to get it in this race.
D - #3 Abaco (4-1) - plenty of class with good exacta and trifecta finishes in graded company, still she rarely puts it together for a win, strictly exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,4,7
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 4,7 / 4,7 / 2,3 = $8
$1 - 4,7 / 2,3 / 4,7 = $4
$0.50 - 4,7 / 2,3 / 2,3 = $2
Race 10 - 7f King's Bishop G1 - Play
A - #2 Wildcat Red (4-1) - I really like him in this spot, during the run up to the Ky Derby he proved he is a game horse. Looking for him to press the pace or sit just behind the leaders.
B - #8 Coup de Grace (2-1) - has post some really good improving speed figures and there should be plenty of pace to run into. Seems to be working well and the outside post gives him a clear path. He'll be the one they'll be trying to hold off late.
C - #4 Noble Cornerstone (15-1) - stalking style may do him well here and the price would be a great exotics boost.
D - #7 The Big Beast (5/2) - triple digit Beyer last out was earned while racing on a loose lead, not looking for him to repeat that effort. Exotics use.
E - #6 Fast Anna (6-1) - would have tossed this one completely, but the workouts and Velazquez intrigue me enough to give him an exotics shot.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,8
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 2,8 / 2,8 = $6
$1 - 2,8 / 4,7,6 = $6
Race 11 - 7f Ballerina G1 - Play
A - #4 My Miss Aurelia (3-1) - a resurgence of her 2012 form would make her tough to beat. No doubt the loves this track and with her tactical speed I think the distance hits her just right. She's won twice at 6-1/2 furlongs.
B - #5 Willet (6-1) - always in the exacta at Saratoga. He should be able to sit just off the pace and there should be plenty of pace for her to run into.
C - #2 Better Lucky (4-1) - got the best of Grace Hall and My Miss Aurelia last out, but not by much. I think MMA can turn the tables on her second off the layoff.
D - #6 La Verdad (7/2) - lots of speed and is 10 of 12 lifetime in the exacta, but that has come against lesser competition. Plenty of early speed, the question is how far will she fade. Exotics use.
E - #8 Hot Stones (6-1) - should get a good trip and her speed figures put her in the mix. Pace will help. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 4,5,2
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 4,5 / 4,5 / 2,6,8 = $6
$0.50 - 4,5 / 2,6,8 / 4,5 = $3
$0.50 - 4,5 / 2,6,8 / 2,6,8 = $6
Race 12 - 1-1/4 mile Travers Stakes G1- Play
A - #2 Bayern (2-1) - Cross out his Preakness effort, he was in all kinds of trouble that day and was taken completely out of his game. Anytime Baffert ships I always take notice. His 106 par rating in the Haskell sticks out amongst this bunch. He'll have to prove himself going the extra furlong, but if he can shake loose on the lead he'll be dangerous. 90% of the Travers winners finished 1st or 2nd in their previous start. 79% ran in a Triple Crown race. Definite win contender from lots of angles.
B - #7 Wicked Strong (7/2) - Changed up his running style last out when he pressed the pace and then took over the lead in the Jim Dandy. Has a lot going for him statistical wise and I like the outside draw. I give him a slight edge over Tonalist to upset Bayern.
C - #6 Tonalist (3-1) - Ran a great race in the Belmont, but couldn't get to Wicked Strong in the Jim Dandy. However, the pace was slow early on in that race. He'll need someone to challenge Bayern up front, but at least he's already proven the added distance won't be an issue. One of just 3 horses in this field that ran above the average running time (par) in a major 3 year old race. Definite win contender.
D - #3 Charge Now (15-1) - Has not raced in any major 3 year old races thus far this year, but he is improving and I have tremendous respect for how Bill Mott places his horses. Looks to be sitting on a good race. Exotics boost.
E - #8 Kid Cruz (12-1) - Seems a cut below the best in here based on his major 3 year old races this year. However, it should be noted that he won the 150K Easy Goer by 3 lengths and the Grade 3 Dwyer by almost a length. Both stakes were at Belmont and Ulanbator was in the Dwyer. Doesn't look like a win contender without a big step forward, but he could definitely plod along into the exotics. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,7,6
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2,7 / 2,7,6 = $8
$1 - 2,7 / 3,8 = $4
Good Luck!
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