I'll be posting/updating my recap here, but I want to watch all the races again before I put my final thought together. Please check back this weekend, I should have everything posted by then. Also, I'm only recapping the races I posted on my blog. I hope everyone had a good Breeders' Cup.
Friday - see Friday selections
Race 5 - Breeder's Cup Marathon G2
It was great to catch Calidoscopio at 17-1, that was about 20% based on the past performances and 80% on what Mike Welsch said about his workouts. This was and oddly run race, Calidoscopio came from so far back that he was actually described as being detached from the field. But his late run starting early on the back stretch was really amazing to watch. Atigun ran a good race and tried to kick away on the far turn only to be run down late stretch. But, then again he is only a 3 year old, so we are likely to see him improve and run well in 2013 in distance races such as the Brooklyn.
Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Turf G1
I've like Zagora all year, but if this race was run again, I'd move Zagora up from my 5th selection, but still pick The Fugue to win. The Fugue was crying out for room to run and was not able to get clear until much too late. I think she could have bested the field if she was in the clear coming off the turn. The other Euro's disappointed. Marketing Mix ran a good race, but she also benefited from The Fugue's traffic troubles.
Race 9 - Breeder's Cup Distaff/Ladies Classic G1
Royal Delta gets my performance of the day. She was unbelievable setting fast fractions and then still putting them away in the stretch. Hats off to Mike Smith giving her a great ride, staying out of her way and knowing that he had plenty of horse even with those fast fractions. Though there were several good horses in here, she was easily the best if she ran her best race. My Miss Aurelia was a good second and Awesome Feather did not run near as well as I thought she would. But it should be said that the race changed when the gates opened and something was obviously wrong with Questing when she didn't break well. That allowed Royal Delta to grab the lead. Still, I don't think Questing would have beaten Royal Delta on that day, but with the way the track was playing she may have hung around in the Exacta or Trifecta.
Saturday - see Saturday selections
Race 5 - Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Sprint G1
Groupie Doll lived up to her expectations kicking away coming off the turn. She was very much the best and the race wasn't closed. Dust and Diamonds ran a great run to be second, but was not match for Groupie Doll. Switch continued her Breeders' cup consistency, that is to turn in a not so good work the week before and then run in the money.
Race 6 - Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile G1
Tapizar took advantage of Shackleford's horrible start and went straight to the lead, which he shared with Emcee until Tapizar opened up in the stretch. It turned out to be a winning move. Shackleford stumbled at the start, not horribly, just horribly for Shackleford. He needed to break well and be on the lead or stalking very close to the lead, instead the stumble put behind a wall of horses and he used a lot of energy moving up on the outside of the first turn. While the rest of the horses were relaxing as they turned onto the backstretch, Shackleford was still running hard to get into position. As I wrote in my selections this is a 2 turn mile and I believe that made a difference for some horses. Emcee was well placed with every chance, but tailed off in the stretch. Rail Trip was 5 lengths off and ran well while on the inside, but was not match for Tapizar.
Race 7 - Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint G1
I have to hand it to Mizdirection and the bettors, they nailed this one. Mike Smith gave Mizdirection a great ride, rolling up on the outside just in time. Reenesgotzip ran a very credible race against the boys, especially for as wide open as this race was. Unbridled's Note looked a winner until Mizdirection ran him down just before the wire. From a betting angle, there was a lot of value in the Exacta. You had to spend money and spread or play it small and hope you where right.
Please check back, more to come...
Monday, November 5, 2012
Saturday, November 3, 2012
2012 Breeders' Cup Saturday Selections
Updated for scratches.
Saturday 11-3-2012 - Santa Anita
Multi-Race Plays
Pick 6 - Races 7,8,9,10,11,12 - $2 Minimum
$2 - 7,13,10,1 / 9,1,4 / 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5 = $1152.00
- OR -
$2 - 7,13,10,1 / 9,1,4 / 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5,11 = $2304.00
Pick 4 - Races 9,10,11,12 - $0.50 Minimum
$0.50 - 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5 = $24
- OR -
$0.50 - 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5,11 = $48
Race 5 - Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Sprint G1
A - #9 Groupie Doll (Even) - Outclasses field, Welsch loved 10/29 work, good post - Winner $3.40
B - #3 Dust and Diamonds (9/2) - Maybe lone speed in race, will have to hold off Groupie Doll - Second
C - #8 Musical Romance (4-1) - Like the work pattern, will sit close to pace, good Exacta/Trifecta chance
D - #6 Turbulent Descent (5-1) - 4 of 6 at 7f, has some upside, but only for exotics
E - #10 Switch (10-1) - may represent the only value in this race for exotics - Third
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#1 Teddy's Promise (20-1) - would be a good add-on in Trifecta/Superfecta, owns a G1 win at SA at 7f
Multi-Race Horses-
#9 Groupie Doll (Even) - Would be a single if you need one
#3 Dust and Diamonds (9/2)
Race Notes-
I think there are two minor (and I stress minor) things that could open Groupie Doll up to being beat. First, shipping to SA and how will she handle the surface, but she has shipped a little and been ok. Second, could be a pace scenerio where Dust and Diamonds movies forward and steals the lead. I think this is the mostly likely scenerio if Groupie Doll gets beat, but again I think that is a small chance. The rest are all running for 2nd or 3rd. I heard Asmussen said, "I don't think I can beat Groupie Doll".
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$10 - 9/3 = $10 - Hit $60.00
$5 - 9/8,6 = $10
$5 - 3/9 = $5
$2 - 9/10
Trifecta
$3 - 9/3,8,6/3,8,6 = $18
$1 - 9/3,8,6/10,1 = $6 - Hit $43.10
$.50 - 9/10,1/3,8,6 = $3
$.50 - 3/9/8,6,10,1 = $2
Race 6 - Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile G1
A - #5 Fed Biz (6-1) - I think he'll like the cut back, Mike Welsch liked last work, can sit behind speed
B - #7 Emcee (5/2) - Sensational 10/19 work, should get good trip, never been 2 turns, good beyer #'s
C - #6 Shackleford (2-1) - seems to have bounced back, has won G1 around 2 turns, tough it at best
D - #3 Jersey Town (4-1) - could sit a good trip just behind speed, rounds out top contenders
E - #4 John Scott (12-1) - Welsch-last work not fast but visually appealing, exotics value, style could help
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#1 Rail Trip (10-1) - seems to be a little better on Syn, but a good trip could put him in mix, value
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #5 Fed Biz (6-1)
B - #7 Emcee (5/2)
C - #6 Shackleford (2-1)
D - #3 Jersey Town (4-1)
Race Notes-
The 2 turns makes this mile interesting. Most of these east coast horses run 1 mile around 1 turn and some of these have never been 2 turns. Shackleford has won a G1 classic around 2 turns which is appealing, but still not on his best recently. Mike Welsch said he seems to working better than better. Fed Biz can stalk and win. Welsch said he really left a favorable impression in work. Baffert usually has them ready. Emcee has never been 2 turns, but owns some great beyers at 7f. How will the speed affect him is the question. Satish said "unload on him". Jersey Town usually brings his A game, but not sure it will be good enough here. Still a speed melt down could put him on the wire first.
Suggested Plays:
Trifecta
$1 - 5,7,6/5,7,6/5,7,6,3 = $12
$0.50 - 5,7,6/5,7,6/4,1 = $6
$0.50 - 5,7,6/4,3,1/5,7,6 = $9
Race 7 - Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint G1
A - #7 Reenesgotzip (8-1) - Welsch loved her work, will have to over come other speed, but seems ready, value - Third
B - #13 Unbridled's Note (5-1) - Drawn outside and should sit the right trip, has won on course, good work, right style - Second
C - #10 Corporate Jungle (6-1) - Interesting on cut back, Welsch-great gallop, was dragging rider, right style
D - #1 California Flag (6-1) - Loves this downhill course, tough post, Welsch-looks good, hasn't lost much
E - #4 Tale of a Champion (30-1) - Not crazy about post, Welsch-worked well and galloped out nicely
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#9 Bridgetown (9/2) - may want to use in Exacta and Trifecta
#2 Camp Victory (10-1) - offers value and style should help with all the speed
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #7 Reenesgotzip (8-1)
B - #13 Unbridled's Note (5-1)
C - #10 Corporate Jungle (6-1)
D - #1 California Flag (6-1)
Race Notes-
Lots of speed in here and a collapse is entirely possible, still if Reenesgotzip can clear she seems ready. Like Unbridled's Note and Corporate Jungle coming from just off the pace. If you hit in the exotics, if figures to pay.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$1 - 7,13,10,1/7,13,10,1,4,9,2 = $24
Trifecta & Exacta Combo
$0.50 - 7,13,10,1/7,13,10,1,4/7,13,10,1,4,9,2 = $40
$1 - 7,13,10,1/9,2 = $8
Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile G1
A - #9 Power Broker (5/2) - Should get a good position, has been 2 turns, like that he has won at SA
B - #1 Title Contender (6-1) - Going for the Baffert Exacta, owns a win at SA, working well
C - #4 Shanghai Bobby (2-1) - Working great, but fear shipping will hurt chances, could very well win - Winner
D - #7 Capo Bastone (15-1) - Seems to be working ok, offers value - Third
E - #6 Dynamic Sky (12-1) - Nearly won a G1 at Kee last out, offers value
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#8 Fortify (9/2) - may slide into exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #9 Power Broker (5/2)
B - #1 Title Contender (6-1)
C - #4 Shanghai Bobby (2-1)
Race Notes-
Top 3 seem much the best and I wouldn't look to far past them for winner. May be able to hook them up with some value horses in exotics.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 9,1,4/9,1,4 = $12
$1 - 9,1,4/7,6,8 - $9
Trifecta
$2 - 9,1,4/9,1,4/9,1,4 = $12
$0.50 - 9,1,4/9,1,4/7,6,8 = $9
$0.50 - 9,1,4/7,6,8/9,1,4 = $9
Race 9 - Breeder's Cup Turf G1
A - #5 Shareta (7/2) - Has impressed Welsch in works, like the recent G1 wins, drawn better than SNA
B - #1 Point of Entry (3-1) - Seems to be in great form, Welsch-couldn't be doing better, will need trip - Second
C - #3 St Nicholas Abbey (7/2) - Won this last year, serious contender - Third
D - #12 Trailblazer (6-1) - Good race last out at SA, should move fwd, looked good galloping, post concern
E - #11 Slim Shady (10-1) - Has run well at longer distance at SA, some value
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#4 Treasure Beach (12-1) - could very well mix up exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #5 Shareta (7/2)
B - #1 Point of Entry (3-1)
C - #3 St Nicholas Abbey (7/2)
D - #12 Trailblazer (6-1)
Race Notes-
I think the Euro's and Point of Entry will own this race. All others are running to fill out the exotics.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 5,1,3/5,1,3 = $12
$1 - 5,1,3/12,11,4 = $9
Trifecta
$1 - 5,1,3/5,1,3/5,1,3,12 = $12
$0.50 - 5,1,3/12/5,1,3 = $6
$0.50 - 5,1,3/5,1,3/11,4 = $6
$0.50 - 5,1,3/11,4/5,1,3 = $6
Race 10 - Breeder's Cup Sprint G1
A - #9 Trinniberg (15-1) - Good post, seems to be working ok, if can clear field could go all the way - Winner $29.40
B - #6 Fast Bullet (12-1) - Planning on going to lead, off layoff but works suggest Baffert has him ready
C - #11 Amazombie (4-1) - Welsch-bounced back with good work, blow out looked good
D - #2 Jimmy Creed (6-1) - Ran well last out, working well
E - #4 Coil (5-1) - Not sure he can win, but always seems to be among the contenders turning for home.
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#7 The Lumber Guy (6-1) - Good horse, had to split hairs here
#5 Justin Phillip (20-1) - Extreme value if goes off at this price, esp. in exotics
#8 Capital Account (8-1) - Could get into exotics, esp. the Superfecta
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #9 Trinniberg (15-1)
B - #6 Fast Bullet (12-1)
C - #11 Amazombie (4-1)
D - #2 Jimmy Creed (6-1)
Race Notes-
This race is a complete toss up amongst 8 horses, but that could make it a great betting race. Hoping Baffert has Fast Bullet ready and Trinniberg clears the field. Not sure it is worth looking past the top 4 for multi-race wagerings because you'd have to spend a lot of money.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$1 - 9,6,11,2/9,6,11,2,4 = $12
$1 - 6,9,11/7 = $3 - Hit $101.70
Race 11 - Breeder's Cup Turf Mile G1
A - #9 Moonlight Cloud (6-1) - This Euro as won or almost won 3 G1 at top tracks, drawn well
B - #6 Excelebration (2-1) - 4 losses came to Frankel, got a little washed out in routine gallop
C - #2 Wise Dan (9/5) - Welsch said is working like a monster, dragged rider in SA turf work - Winner
D - #3 Obviously (6-1) - A small chance he could still on front end, but may not fade out of exotics - Third
E - #5 Animal Kingdom (8-1) - Looks great and Motion places horses well, getting 8-1 on a derby winner - Second
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
None
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #9 Moonlight Cloud (6-1)
B - #6 Excelebration (2-1)
C - #2 Wise Dan (9/5)
Race Notes-
Should be within the top 3 and likely the exacta and trifecta. Obviously, has a chance to steal on front end so may want to play to protect that. I didn't include Animal Kingdom in my multi-race horses and I will be kicking myself if for not including a Derby winner if he wins.
Suggested Plays:
Trifecta w/ Exacta Saver
$2 - 9,6,2/9,6,2/9,6,2 = $12
$0.50 - 9,6,2/9,6,2/3,5 = $6
$0.50 = 9,6,2/3,5/9,6,2 = $6
$1 - 3/9,6,2 = $3
Race 12 - Breeder's Cup Classic G1
A - #5 Game on Dude (9/5) - Has been working great, loves SA, has won at 1-1/4, very game horse
B - #11 Mucho Macho Man (8-1) - Would love to think we could get 8-1 on this horse, working and looks great - Second
C - #4 Fort Larned (5-1) - Was working good in KY, very strong contender but will need very best - Winner
D - #10 Ron the Greek (6-1) - Owns a win at 1-1/4 miles on this track, always comes running
E - #8 Nonios (20-1) - One of two best exotic value in the race, working great, good race at SA last out
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#1 Pool Play (30-1) - Great value for exotics, 2 for 2 on dirt, both time triple digit beyers
#2 Flat Out (5-1) - Working good, always hangs around, but he scares me
#12 To Honor and Serve (8-1) - Could very well mix up exotics, not sure he is as good as top 2
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #5 Game on Dude (9/5)
B - #11 Mucho Macho Man (8-1)
Race Notes-
If I go past the top 2 horses in the Multi-race picks, then I will need to take 8 horses. I really think Game on Dude will take this and if not Mucho Macho Man with Mike Smith should be waiting to take over. Nonios and Pool Play are great values for the Exotics.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$4 - 5/11,4 = $10
$4 - 11/5 = $4
$2 - 11/4 = $2
$2 - 5,11/10 =$4
$1 - 5,11/8,1 = $4
Trifecta
$1 - 5/11,4,10,8/11,4,10,8 = $12
$0.50 - 5/11,4,10,8/1,2,12 = $6
$1 - 11/5/4,10,8 = $3
$0.50 - 11/5,4,10,8/5,4,10,8 = $6
$0.50 - 11/5,4,10,8/1,2,12 = $6
Saturday 11-3-2012 - Santa Anita
Multi-Race Plays
Pick 6 - Races 7,8,9,10,11,12 - $2 Minimum
$2 - 7,13,10,1 / 9,1,4 / 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5 = $1152.00
- OR -
$2 - 7,13,10,1 / 9,1,4 / 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5,11 = $2304.00
Pick 4 - Races 9,10,11,12 - $0.50 Minimum
$0.50 - 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5 = $24
- OR -
$0.50 - 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5,11 = $48
Race 5 - Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Sprint G1
A - #9 Groupie Doll (Even) - Outclasses field, Welsch loved 10/29 work, good post - Winner $3.40
B - #3 Dust and Diamonds (9/2) - Maybe lone speed in race, will have to hold off Groupie Doll - Second
C - #8 Musical Romance (4-1) - Like the work pattern, will sit close to pace, good Exacta/Trifecta chance
D - #6 Turbulent Descent (5-1) - 4 of 6 at 7f, has some upside, but only for exotics
E - #10 Switch (10-1) - may represent the only value in this race for exotics - Third
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#1 Teddy's Promise (20-1) - would be a good add-on in Trifecta/Superfecta, owns a G1 win at SA at 7f
Multi-Race Horses-
#9 Groupie Doll (Even) - Would be a single if you need one
#3 Dust and Diamonds (9/2)
Race Notes-
I think there are two minor (and I stress minor) things that could open Groupie Doll up to being beat. First, shipping to SA and how will she handle the surface, but she has shipped a little and been ok. Second, could be a pace scenerio where Dust and Diamonds movies forward and steals the lead. I think this is the mostly likely scenerio if Groupie Doll gets beat, but again I think that is a small chance. The rest are all running for 2nd or 3rd. I heard Asmussen said, "I don't think I can beat Groupie Doll".
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$10 - 9/3 = $10 - Hit $60.00
$5 - 9/8,6 = $10
$5 - 3/9 = $5
$2 - 9/10
Trifecta
$3 - 9/3,8,6/3,8,6 = $18
$1 - 9/3,8,6/10,1 = $6 - Hit $43.10
$.50 - 9/10,1/3,8,6 = $3
$.50 - 3/9/8,6,10,1 = $2
Race 6 - Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile G1
A - #5 Fed Biz (6-1) - I think he'll like the cut back, Mike Welsch liked last work, can sit behind speed
B - #7 Emcee (5/2) - Sensational 10/19 work, should get good trip, never been 2 turns, good beyer #'s
C - #6 Shackleford (2-1) - seems to have bounced back, has won G1 around 2 turns, tough it at best
D - #3 Jersey Town (4-1) - could sit a good trip just behind speed, rounds out top contenders
E - #4 John Scott (12-1) - Welsch-last work not fast but visually appealing, exotics value, style could help
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#1 Rail Trip (10-1) - seems to be a little better on Syn, but a good trip could put him in mix, value
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #5 Fed Biz (6-1)
B - #7 Emcee (5/2)
C - #6 Shackleford (2-1)
D - #3 Jersey Town (4-1)
Race Notes-
The 2 turns makes this mile interesting. Most of these east coast horses run 1 mile around 1 turn and some of these have never been 2 turns. Shackleford has won a G1 classic around 2 turns which is appealing, but still not on his best recently. Mike Welsch said he seems to working better than better. Fed Biz can stalk and win. Welsch said he really left a favorable impression in work. Baffert usually has them ready. Emcee has never been 2 turns, but owns some great beyers at 7f. How will the speed affect him is the question. Satish said "unload on him". Jersey Town usually brings his A game, but not sure it will be good enough here. Still a speed melt down could put him on the wire first.
Suggested Plays:
Trifecta
$1 - 5,7,6/5,7,6/5,7,6,3 = $12
$0.50 - 5,7,6/5,7,6/4,1 = $6
$0.50 - 5,7,6/4,3,1/5,7,6 = $9
Race 7 - Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint G1
A - #7 Reenesgotzip (8-1) - Welsch loved her work, will have to over come other speed, but seems ready, value - Third
B - #13 Unbridled's Note (5-1) - Drawn outside and should sit the right trip, has won on course, good work, right style - Second
C - #10 Corporate Jungle (6-1) - Interesting on cut back, Welsch-great gallop, was dragging rider, right style
D - #1 California Flag (6-1) - Loves this downhill course, tough post, Welsch-looks good, hasn't lost much
E - #4 Tale of a Champion (30-1) - Not crazy about post, Welsch-worked well and galloped out nicely
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#9 Bridgetown (9/2) - may want to use in Exacta and Trifecta
#2 Camp Victory (10-1) - offers value and style should help with all the speed
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #7 Reenesgotzip (8-1)
B - #13 Unbridled's Note (5-1)
C - #10 Corporate Jungle (6-1)
D - #1 California Flag (6-1)
Race Notes-
Lots of speed in here and a collapse is entirely possible, still if Reenesgotzip can clear she seems ready. Like Unbridled's Note and Corporate Jungle coming from just off the pace. If you hit in the exotics, if figures to pay.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$1 - 7,13,10,1/7,13,10,1,4,9,2 = $24
Trifecta & Exacta Combo
$0.50 - 7,13,10,1/7,13,10,1,4/7,13,10,1,4,9,2 = $40
$1 - 7,13,10,1/9,2 = $8
Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile G1
A - #9 Power Broker (5/2) - Should get a good position, has been 2 turns, like that he has won at SA
B - #1 Title Contender (6-1) - Going for the Baffert Exacta, owns a win at SA, working well
C - #4 Shanghai Bobby (2-1) - Working great, but fear shipping will hurt chances, could very well win - Winner
D - #7 Capo Bastone (15-1) - Seems to be working ok, offers value - Third
E - #6 Dynamic Sky (12-1) - Nearly won a G1 at Kee last out, offers value
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#8 Fortify (9/2) - may slide into exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #9 Power Broker (5/2)
B - #1 Title Contender (6-1)
C - #4 Shanghai Bobby (2-1)
Race Notes-
Top 3 seem much the best and I wouldn't look to far past them for winner. May be able to hook them up with some value horses in exotics.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 9,1,4/9,1,4 = $12
$1 - 9,1,4/7,6,8 - $9
Trifecta
$2 - 9,1,4/9,1,4/9,1,4 = $12
$0.50 - 9,1,4/9,1,4/7,6,8 = $9
$0.50 - 9,1,4/7,6,8/9,1,4 = $9
Race 9 - Breeder's Cup Turf G1
A - #5 Shareta (7/2) - Has impressed Welsch in works, like the recent G1 wins, drawn better than SNA
B - #1 Point of Entry (3-1) - Seems to be in great form, Welsch-couldn't be doing better, will need trip - Second
C - #3 St Nicholas Abbey (7/2) - Won this last year, serious contender - Third
D - #12 Trailblazer (6-1) - Good race last out at SA, should move fwd, looked good galloping, post concern
E - #11 Slim Shady (10-1) - Has run well at longer distance at SA, some value
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#4 Treasure Beach (12-1) - could very well mix up exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #5 Shareta (7/2)
B - #1 Point of Entry (3-1)
C - #3 St Nicholas Abbey (7/2)
D - #12 Trailblazer (6-1)
Race Notes-
I think the Euro's and Point of Entry will own this race. All others are running to fill out the exotics.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 5,1,3/5,1,3 = $12
$1 - 5,1,3/12,11,4 = $9
Trifecta
$1 - 5,1,3/5,1,3/5,1,3,12 = $12
$0.50 - 5,1,3/12/5,1,3 = $6
$0.50 - 5,1,3/5,1,3/11,4 = $6
$0.50 - 5,1,3/11,4/5,1,3 = $6
Race 10 - Breeder's Cup Sprint G1
A - #9 Trinniberg (15-1) - Good post, seems to be working ok, if can clear field could go all the way - Winner $29.40
B - #6 Fast Bullet (12-1) - Planning on going to lead, off layoff but works suggest Baffert has him ready
C - #11 Amazombie (4-1) - Welsch-bounced back with good work, blow out looked good
D - #2 Jimmy Creed (6-1) - Ran well last out, working well
E - #4 Coil (5-1) - Not sure he can win, but always seems to be among the contenders turning for home.
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#7 The Lumber Guy (6-1) - Good horse, had to split hairs here
#5 Justin Phillip (20-1) - Extreme value if goes off at this price, esp. in exotics
#8 Capital Account (8-1) - Could get into exotics, esp. the Superfecta
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #9 Trinniberg (15-1)
B - #6 Fast Bullet (12-1)
C - #11 Amazombie (4-1)
D - #2 Jimmy Creed (6-1)
Race Notes-
This race is a complete toss up amongst 8 horses, but that could make it a great betting race. Hoping Baffert has Fast Bullet ready and Trinniberg clears the field. Not sure it is worth looking past the top 4 for multi-race wagerings because you'd have to spend a lot of money.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$1 - 9,6,11,2/9,6,11,2,4 = $12
$1 - 6,9,11/7 = $3 - Hit $101.70
Race 11 - Breeder's Cup Turf Mile G1
A - #9 Moonlight Cloud (6-1) - This Euro as won or almost won 3 G1 at top tracks, drawn well
B - #6 Excelebration (2-1) - 4 losses came to Frankel, got a little washed out in routine gallop
C - #2 Wise Dan (9/5) - Welsch said is working like a monster, dragged rider in SA turf work - Winner
D - #3 Obviously (6-1) - A small chance he could still on front end, but may not fade out of exotics - Third
E - #5 Animal Kingdom (8-1) - Looks great and Motion places horses well, getting 8-1 on a derby winner - Second
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
None
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #9 Moonlight Cloud (6-1)
B - #6 Excelebration (2-1)
C - #2 Wise Dan (9/5)
Race Notes-
Should be within the top 3 and likely the exacta and trifecta. Obviously, has a chance to steal on front end so may want to play to protect that. I didn't include Animal Kingdom in my multi-race horses and I will be kicking myself if for not including a Derby winner if he wins.
Suggested Plays:
Trifecta w/ Exacta Saver
$2 - 9,6,2/9,6,2/9,6,2 = $12
$0.50 - 9,6,2/9,6,2/3,5 = $6
$0.50 = 9,6,2/3,5/9,6,2 = $6
$1 - 3/9,6,2 = $3
Race 12 - Breeder's Cup Classic G1
A - #5 Game on Dude (9/5) - Has been working great, loves SA, has won at 1-1/4, very game horse
B - #11 Mucho Macho Man (8-1) - Would love to think we could get 8-1 on this horse, working and looks great - Second
C - #4 Fort Larned (5-1) - Was working good in KY, very strong contender but will need very best - Winner
D - #10 Ron the Greek (6-1) - Owns a win at 1-1/4 miles on this track, always comes running
E - #8 Nonios (20-1) - One of two best exotic value in the race, working great, good race at SA last out
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#1 Pool Play (30-1) - Great value for exotics, 2 for 2 on dirt, both time triple digit beyers
#2 Flat Out (5-1) - Working good, always hangs around, but he scares me
#12 To Honor and Serve (8-1) - Could very well mix up exotics, not sure he is as good as top 2
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #5 Game on Dude (9/5)
B - #11 Mucho Macho Man (8-1)
Race Notes-
If I go past the top 2 horses in the Multi-race picks, then I will need to take 8 horses. I really think Game on Dude will take this and if not Mucho Macho Man with Mike Smith should be waiting to take over. Nonios and Pool Play are great values for the Exotics.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$4 - 5/11,4 = $10
$4 - 11/5 = $4
$2 - 11/4 = $2
$2 - 5,11/10 =$4
$1 - 5,11/8,1 = $4
Trifecta
$1 - 5/11,4,10,8/11,4,10,8 = $12
$0.50 - 5/11,4,10,8/1,2,12 = $6
$1 - 11/5/4,10,8 = $3
$0.50 - 11/5,4,10,8/5,4,10,8 = $6
$0.50 - 11/5,4,10,8/1,2,12 = $6
Thursday, November 1, 2012
2012 Breeders' Cup Friday Selections
This is where I'll be posting & updating Breeders' Cup Friday selections. Suggested Plays will be updated on race day after the scratches come out. Check back I'm still handicapping, more to come...
Updated for Scratches.
Friday 11-2-2012 - Santa Anita
Race 5 - Breeder's Cup Marathon G2
A - #6 Calidoscopio (8-1) - Mike Welsch has been high on this horse, has won at long distance on dirt - Winner $36.40
B - #10 Eldaafar (8-1) - Won this in 2010, seems to be in good form which makes him a contender
C - #1 Atigun (9/2) - should get this distance, but not sure he is better than top 2 - Third
D - #2 Fame and Glory (5-1) - Will get this distances, but has only run on Turf, should add some value
E - #7 Not Abroad (5-1) - May sit a good trip, view about the same as Atigun
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#5 Jaycito (6-1) - Like the horse, but distance maybe a questions, needs to prove to me
#14 Juniper Pass (30-1) - Has won at 1-1/2 miles at SA and 1-3/4 on Turf, great value in exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
#6 Calidoscopio (8-1)
#10 Eldaafar (8-1)
#1 Atigun (9/2)
#2 Fame and Glory (5-1)
Race Notes-
I feel fairly comfortable with my top 2, but this is the marathon so strange things can happen. There is a real possibility to be able to spread here in the Exacta. There will be tons of value in the Trifecta, but you may need to play small or spend a lot of money to be right. Really going for and hoping for the value to be in the Exacta. Crazy things happen in the Marathon.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 6,10,1/6,10,1 = $12
$1 - 6,10,1/2,7,5,14 - $12
$1 - 7,2/6,10,1 = $6
Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Turf G1
A - #4 The Fugue (7/2) - Heard a lot of good about this horse, will get dist, was pointed for this race - Third
B - #10 Ridasiyna (4-1) - Seems to be moving fwd at right time, post maybe slight issue
C - #8 Nahrain (6-1) - should get a good trip, ran well in G1 last out at Bel
D - #9 Marketing Mix (9/2) - Owns a win in G1 at SA at 1-1/4 miles, 2 of 3 at distance, always A effort - Second
E - #2 Zagora (8-1) - Good horse, but in tough here, could mix up Exacta or Trifecta, view same as Marketing Mix - Winner
Deep Exotics Use or Value Adds-
#6 Lady of Shamrock (12-1) - Like the longer works and have heard good things, will add value to exotics.
Multi-Race Horses-
#4 The Fugue (7/2)
#10 Ridasiyna (4-1)
Race Notes-
I think the Euro's will be hard to beat in here. Zagora and Lady of Shamrock will offer some value if they can break into the exotics. I really think Zagora and Marketing mix are about the same horse and should be played that way when betting.
Suggested Plays
Exacta
$5 - 4,10/4,10 = $10
$2 - 4,10/8,9,2 = $12
$1 - 8,9,2/4,10 = $6
$1 - 4,10/6 = $2
Trifecta
$1 - 4,10/4,10,8,9/4,10,8,9 = $12
$1 - 4,10/4,10,8,9,2/4,10,8,9,2 = $24
$0.50 - 4,10/4,10,8,9,2/6 = $4
$0.50 - 4,10/6/4,10,8,9,2 = $4
Race 9 - Breeder's Cup Distaff/Ladies Classic G1
A - #6 Royal Delta (9/5) - Easily best with close to top effort, tough spot but can handle these - Winner $5.40
B - #4 Questing (4-1) - Other speed in race, but should try to run them off their feet, like in Alabama
C - #5 Awesome Feather (3-1) - Really good horse, but haven't face this tough before
D - #1 Grace Hall (10-1) - Could very well pick up pieces of a speed dual, value in a strong horse
E - #8 Love and Pride (8-1) - Will have to deal with Questing on front end, like the recent race at SA
Deep Exotics Use or Value Adds-
#2 My Miss Aurelia (4-1) - Great horse, but hasn't won at 1-1/8 miles, up against it, move fwd possible
Multi-Race Horses-
#6 Royal Delta (9/5)
#4 Questing (4-1)
#5 Awesome Feather (3-1)
Race Notes-
Royal Delta should be best in here and if she runs her best she should cross the wire in front. But there are a lot of nice horses in this race and the winner will have to be on their best. I see a real possibility where Questing runs them off their feet and/or steals this on the front end. Also, Awesome Feather hasn't faced this tough, but we really don't know how good she is, so she may just run away from these. Grace Hall could very well win this race, but I think something would have to go wrong for a few of the top 3 and Royal Delta will probably get first run on Grace Hall.
Suggested Plays:
Special Daily Double - Ladies Classic & Breeders' Cup Classic
$5 - 6 (Royal Delta) / 5 (Game on Dude) = $5
$2 - 6 (Royal Delta), 4 (Questing), 5 (Awesome Feather) / 5 (Game on Dude), 11 (Mucho Macho Man) = $12
$1 - 6 (Royal Delta), 4 (Questing), 5 (Awesome Feather) / 4 (Fort Larned), 10 (Ron the Greek) = $6 - Hit $31.50
Exacta
$2 - 6,4,5/6,4,5 = $12
$1 - 6,4,5/1,8,2 = $9 - Hit $15.20
Trifecta
$2 - 6,4,5/6,4,5/6,4,5 = $12
$1 - 6,4,5/6,4,5/1,8,2 = $18
$0.50 - 6,4,5/1,8,2/6,4,5 = $9
$0.50 - 6,4,5/6,4,5/7 = $3
Updated for Scratches.
Friday 11-2-2012 - Santa Anita
Race 5 - Breeder's Cup Marathon G2
A - #6 Calidoscopio (8-1) - Mike Welsch has been high on this horse, has won at long distance on dirt - Winner $36.40
B - #10 Eldaafar (8-1) - Won this in 2010, seems to be in good form which makes him a contender
C - #1 Atigun (9/2) - should get this distance, but not sure he is better than top 2 - Third
D - #2 Fame and Glory (5-1) - Will get this distances, but has only run on Turf, should add some value
E - #7 Not Abroad (5-1) - May sit a good trip, view about the same as Atigun
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#5 Jaycito (6-1) - Like the horse, but distance maybe a questions, needs to prove to me
#14 Juniper Pass (30-1) - Has won at 1-1/2 miles at SA and 1-3/4 on Turf, great value in exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
#6 Calidoscopio (8-1)
#10 Eldaafar (8-1)
#1 Atigun (9/2)
#2 Fame and Glory (5-1)
Race Notes-
I feel fairly comfortable with my top 2, but this is the marathon so strange things can happen. There is a real possibility to be able to spread here in the Exacta. There will be tons of value in the Trifecta, but you may need to play small or spend a lot of money to be right. Really going for and hoping for the value to be in the Exacta. Crazy things happen in the Marathon.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 6,10,1/6,10,1 = $12
$1 - 6,10,1/2,7,5,14 - $12
$1 - 7,2/6,10,1 = $6
Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Turf G1
A - #4 The Fugue (7/2) - Heard a lot of good about this horse, will get dist, was pointed for this race - Third
B - #10 Ridasiyna (4-1) - Seems to be moving fwd at right time, post maybe slight issue
C - #8 Nahrain (6-1) - should get a good trip, ran well in G1 last out at Bel
D - #9 Marketing Mix (9/2) - Owns a win in G1 at SA at 1-1/4 miles, 2 of 3 at distance, always A effort - Second
E - #2 Zagora (8-1) - Good horse, but in tough here, could mix up Exacta or Trifecta, view same as Marketing Mix - Winner
Deep Exotics Use or Value Adds-
#6 Lady of Shamrock (12-1) - Like the longer works and have heard good things, will add value to exotics.
Multi-Race Horses-
#4 The Fugue (7/2)
#10 Ridasiyna (4-1)
Race Notes-
I think the Euro's will be hard to beat in here. Zagora and Lady of Shamrock will offer some value if they can break into the exotics. I really think Zagora and Marketing mix are about the same horse and should be played that way when betting.
Suggested Plays
Exacta
$5 - 4,10/4,10 = $10
$2 - 4,10/8,9,2 = $12
$1 - 8,9,2/4,10 = $6
$1 - 4,10/6 = $2
Trifecta
$1 - 4,10/4,10,8,9/4,10,8,9 = $12
$1 - 4,10/4,10,8,9,2/4,10,8,9,2 = $24
$0.50 - 4,10/4,10,8,9,2/6 = $4
$0.50 - 4,10/6/4,10,8,9,2 = $4
Race 9 - Breeder's Cup Distaff/Ladies Classic G1
A - #6 Royal Delta (9/5) - Easily best with close to top effort, tough spot but can handle these - Winner $5.40
B - #4 Questing (4-1) - Other speed in race, but should try to run them off their feet, like in Alabama
C - #5 Awesome Feather (3-1) - Really good horse, but haven't face this tough before
D - #1 Grace Hall (10-1) - Could very well pick up pieces of a speed dual, value in a strong horse
E - #8 Love and Pride (8-1) - Will have to deal with Questing on front end, like the recent race at SA
Deep Exotics Use or Value Adds-
#2 My Miss Aurelia (4-1) - Great horse, but hasn't won at 1-1/8 miles, up against it, move fwd possible
Multi-Race Horses-
#6 Royal Delta (9/5)
#4 Questing (4-1)
#5 Awesome Feather (3-1)
Race Notes-
Royal Delta should be best in here and if she runs her best she should cross the wire in front. But there are a lot of nice horses in this race and the winner will have to be on their best. I see a real possibility where Questing runs them off their feet and/or steals this on the front end. Also, Awesome Feather hasn't faced this tough, but we really don't know how good she is, so she may just run away from these. Grace Hall could very well win this race, but I think something would have to go wrong for a few of the top 3 and Royal Delta will probably get first run on Grace Hall.
Suggested Plays:
Special Daily Double - Ladies Classic & Breeders' Cup Classic
$5 - 6 (Royal Delta) / 5 (Game on Dude) = $5
$2 - 6 (Royal Delta), 4 (Questing), 5 (Awesome Feather) / 5 (Game on Dude), 11 (Mucho Macho Man) = $12
$1 - 6 (Royal Delta), 4 (Questing), 5 (Awesome Feather) / 4 (Fort Larned), 10 (Ron the Greek) = $6 - Hit $31.50
Exacta
$2 - 6,4,5/6,4,5 = $12
$1 - 6,4,5/1,8,2 = $9 - Hit $15.20
Trifecta
$2 - 6,4,5/6,4,5/6,4,5 = $12
$1 - 6,4,5/6,4,5/1,8,2 = $18
$0.50 - 6,4,5/1,8,2/6,4,5 = $9
$0.50 - 6,4,5/6,4,5/7 = $3
2012 Breeders' Cup Workouts
Mike Welsch 11-1-2012 from At the Races with Steve Byk & Tweets
Game on Dude - Very, Very good. Exceptional. Looks great. His race to lose.
Fort Larned - Heard good things from his works in KY
Royal Delta - 11/1 looked good galloping, was touting herself at Belmont park, surface question and tough field
My Miss Aurelia - Easy 1/2 in :48, but would be surprised if won
Awesome Feather - has looked exceptional, last work in NY was very, very good
Power Broker & Title Contender - Both worked very well
Shanghi Bobby - worked great back in NY, exceptional, on top of his game
Lady of Shamrock - Thought work was average, best part of work was gallop out, but turf horse working on dirt
The Fugue - looked best of Euro's that he had seen
Fast Bullet - nice 5f work, intention is to go for lead
Amazombie - blew out Thursday morning, thinks he will run better than last out
Wise Dan - 11/1 was dragging rider, looks AWESOME
Mucho Macho Man - Love the way he worked in NY, 11/1 easy gallop, looked nice and relaxed, very comfortable over track
Corporate Jungle - 11/1 full of run this morning and then some
Excelebration - 11/1 got a little hot in first visit to track
Fame and Glory - 11/1 got a little hot in first visit to track
St. Nicholas Abbey - just fine
Game on Dude - Very, Very good. Exceptional. Looks great. His race to lose.
Fort Larned - Heard good things from his works in KY
Royal Delta - 11/1 looked good galloping, was touting herself at Belmont park, surface question and tough field
My Miss Aurelia - Easy 1/2 in :48, but would be surprised if won
Awesome Feather - has looked exceptional, last work in NY was very, very good
Power Broker & Title Contender - Both worked very well
Shanghi Bobby - worked great back in NY, exceptional, on top of his game
Lady of Shamrock - Thought work was average, best part of work was gallop out, but turf horse working on dirt
The Fugue - looked best of Euro's that he had seen
Fast Bullet - nice 5f work, intention is to go for lead
Amazombie - blew out Thursday morning, thinks he will run better than last out
Wise Dan - 11/1 was dragging rider, looks AWESOME
Mucho Macho Man - Love the way he worked in NY, 11/1 easy gallop, looked nice and relaxed, very comfortable over track
Corporate Jungle - 11/1 full of run this morning and then some
Excelebration - 11/1 got a little hot in first visit to track
Fame and Glory - 11/1 got a little hot in first visit to track
St. Nicholas Abbey - just fine
Monday 10-29-2012 Breeders' Cup Workout Notes
Main Track - Course a little loose, not as fast as over the weekend
Work of the Day
Groupie Doll - showed why she is going to be the favorite, did it easily, 11 2/5 first 1/8, hooked up with Richard's Kid grabbed the bit, pulled away, very strong gallop very easily, definitely her race to lose
Tapizar - seemed rank, 48 4/5
Unbridled's Note - relaxed, 50 1/5, just an easy work
Dust and Diamonds - Welsch interested in, similar to Unbridled's Note work
Justin Phillip - Best of 5 Asmussen horses, finished 23 4/5 all on his own
Great Mills - seemed on the muscle, but settled, got a little tired coming home, but not too bad
Rumor - quick 3/8 in 34 4/5, a little head strong early, looked very sharp
Calidoscopio - 5f in company all the way around 1:01 1/5, was carried out by other horse, finished up average, but not under a lot of pressure, but not a great gallop out, not as good as yesterday
Nancy O - didn't like
Jaycito - went in company, broke off behind, quickly caught workmate, but tired some in stretch
Handsome Mike - looked great, did it easily
Alpha - great appearance, love the way he looked, best looking galloper this morning
Sunday 10-28-2012 Breeders' Cup Workout Notes
Main Track - Fast - times a little quicker today than Friday
Game on Dude - brilliant 6f 1:13 1/5, easy, strong gallop
Fed Biz - 5f 1:00 1/5, galloped out well, sneaky player
Fast Bullet - was just cruising easy as can be, galloped out well, sneaky player off layoff
Coil - Caught Capital Account 48 3/5, maintenance work
Capital Account - 48 3/5, maintenance work, about the same as Coil
Contested - Big speed, seemed a little tired at end :59 flat
My Miss Aurelia - maintenance work, evenly :48 for 1/2, relax nicely, beautiful maintenance work, seemed like the wanted to do more, key contender, top form
Class Included - went really well, :47 2/5, galloped out well, really impressed, too bad she is in such strong field
Slim Shady - did not like, but working on dirt and going to run on grass, really tired down lane, no gallop out
Calidoscopio - dragged rider, looked tremendous, could be really dangerous, grabbed bit when saw another horse *Welsch really impressed, maybe good bet
California Flag - Looked like a winner, 46 2/5, just cruising, maintainng form, looked good
Tale of a Champion - 47 1/5, striding out well, looked good
Saturday 10-27-2012 Breeders' Cup Workout Notes
Turf - Firm Dogs Out
Works of the Day-
Main Track - Super Ninety Nine - 5f :59 2/5
Turf Track - Reenesgotzip - 5f :59 2/5 - broke off 3L behind, finished full of run, sitting chilly, galloped out best of all bc workers for the day
Workouts
Dullahan - 5f Dirt 1:00 - 22 4/5 opening, may have gone too fast early, average work
Shackleford - Looked much better than before Forego (when scratched), first 3/8 in :35
Executive Privilage - not impressed, struggled during latter stages of work, dissappointing for favorite
Love and Pride - 48 3/5, better of pair, liked the way she went, final 1/4 23 4/5
Switch - 1:11.58, but didn't like the way she did it, rider really had to get into her, nothing left *ran 2nd in last two BC after not working well
Second City - 6f 1:13 3/5, but did it comfortably, well in hand, nice work
Trinniberg - relaxed nicely, restrained, pretty good work
In Lingerie - 47.08, much better than Turbo Compresser, broke off behind quickly caught him, galloped out very strong
Turbo Compresser - 47 4/5, did not work as well as In Lingerie
Mizdirection- 5f in 58 4/5, 22 3/5 opening
Little Mike - Average work 5f 1:01 3/5, not bad just average
Smiling Tiger - Did not like, under pressure
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