San Felipe & Tampa Bay Derby Stats Guide
Here is the stats guide for the San Felipe & Tampa Bay Derby. The link below will take you to my website where you can download the .pdf guide. It's free, enjoy!
The guide follows the same format as the others with stats on post position, running style, post time favorite, average running times, top 4 finishers by last race finish, top 4 finishers by last race track, payouts (average, high and low), key horses and a winners list from the previous 20 years.
Click the link below to view or download the Guide on our website:
San Felipe Stakes & Tampa Bay Derby Stats Guide
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - can usually key A & B horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Tampa Bay - Pre Scratches.
Race 11 - 1-1/16mi Tampa Bay Derby G2 - Action
A - #6 Vinceremos (4-1) - should sit a good trip, horses that won their previous start are 55%
B - #5 Conquest Titan (7/2) - has run some decent #'s, is one of 2 horses that fit a criteria that 83% of the time fill at least 1 Trifecta spot.
C - #2 Surfing U S A (3-1) - has run well, but not in stakes company. being a Pletcher horse he will take money.
D - #7 East Hall (10-1) - solid #'s, but horses that were not 1st or 2nd in their previous start only win 25% of the time. He is the other horse that fit a criteria that 83% of the time fill at least 1 Trifecta spot.
E - #8 Cousin Stephen (9/2)
Important Stats:
In the last 20 years...
Horses that ran above the average running time (par time) in any Kentucky Derby qualifying prep race have occupied one spot in the Trifecta in 10 of the 12 years (83%) where the field contained a horse that fit these criteria. Horses in this year's Tampa Bay Derby that fit these criteria are:
#5 Conquest Titan (Holy Bull - Par Rating: 108)
#7 East Hall (Fountain of Youth - Par Rating: 100)
Post Time Favorite Stats: 35% win, 60% in Exacta, 75% in Trifecta, 85% in Superfecta.
Horses that won their previous start have won the Tampa Bay Derby at 55%. And horses that were either 1st or 2nd in their previous start have won at 75% and filled 75% of the Exacta spots.
Multi-Race Horses - 6,5,2
Suggest Plays:
$0.10 - 6 / 2,5 / 2,5 / 7,8,1,9 = $.80
$0.10 - 6,2 / 5 / 6,2,7,8 / 6,2,7,8,1,9 = $2.40
$0.10 - 6,2 / 6,2,7,8 / 5 / 6,2,7,8,1,9 = $2.40
$0.10 - 5 / 6,2 / 6,2,7,8 / 6,2,7,8,1,9 = $2.40
$0.10 - 5 / 6,2,7,8 / 6,2 / 6,2,7,8,1,9 = $2.40
Santa Anita - Pre Scratches.
Race 5 - 1-1/16mi San Felipe G2 - Action
A - #7 Kristo (5/2) - i think it is possible for this guy to grab the lead and go gate to wire, like the 2/24 work and has never been out of the Exacta. Horses that were 1st or 2nd in their previous start combine for a 70% win average.
B - #9 Midnight Hawk (5/2) - ran well in the Robert B. Lewis with a par rating of 101, which makes him a good Trifecta key based on the stat below. has good #'s and like that he is drawn outside.
C - #4 California chrome (9/5) - horses that were 1st their last out have won at 55% and filled 62% of the Trifecta spots. Has good #'s with a win at this distance at SA.
D - #2 Unstoppable Colby (15-1) - big #'s last out was earned while on the lead, should be forwardly placed, not sure how far back he'll fade. Exotics use.
E - #8 Schoolofhardrocks (9/2) - surface switcher with 2 nice recent works and 1st time Lasix. who knows, exotics use.
Important Stats:
In the last 20 years...
Horses that ran above the average running time (par time) in any Kentucky Derby qualifying prep race have occupied one spot in the Trifecta in 11 of the 15 years (73%) where the field contained a horse that fit these criteria. Only one horse in this year's San Felipe field fits these criteria:
#9 Midnight Hawk (Robert B. Lewis - Par Rating: 101)
Post Time Favorite Stats: 30% win, 70% in Exacta, 85% in Trifecta, 90% in Superfecta.
Horses that won their previous start have won the Tampa Bay Derby at 55%. And horses that were either 1st or 2nd in their previous start have won at 70% and filled 70% of the Exacta spots and 75% of the Trifecta spots.
Multi-Race Horses - 7,9,4
Suggest Plays:
Takes my selections into consideration with stats from above.
$0.10 - 4,9 / 4,9 / 7,2,8,3 / 7,2,8,3 = $2.40
$0.10 - 4,9 / 7,2,8 / 4,9 / 7,2,8,3 = $1.80
$0.10 - 4,9 / 7,2,8 / 7,2,8,3 / 4,9 = $1.80
$0.10 - 7,2,8 / 4,9 / 4,9 / 7,2,8,3 = $1.80
$0.10 - 7,2,8 / 4,9 / 7,2,8,3 / 4,9 = $1.80
$0.10 - 7,2,8 / 7,2,8 / 4,9 / 4,9 = $1.20
Race 8 - 1mi Frank E. Kilroe Mile G1 TURF - Action
A - #5 Za Approval (3-1) - on best day he should handle these, we'll see if he can fire fresh
B - #9 Silento (7/2) - has got the class and never out of Trifecta at SA and 6 out of 7 in Trifecta at this distance
C - #3 Optimizer (12-1) - this guy found a home on the turf, not sure he can win here, but exotics is not out of the picture and if the 12-1 is correct he should offer some value
D - #6 Winning Prize (7/2) - has got some early speed and some decent class and has never been out of the exacta at this distance, we'll see how long he can hold on up front
E - #2 Regally Ready (8-1) - is 4 out of 7 at SA on the turf with some good #'s, should be forwardly placed
Multi-Race Horses - 5,9,3,6
Suggest Plays:
$0.50 - 5 / 9,3,6,2 / 9,3,6,2 = $6
$0.50 - 9,3,6,2 / 5 / 9,3,6,2 = $6
Race 9 - 1-1/4mi Santa Anita Handicap G1 - Play
A - #7 Game on Dude (5/2) - if no one pushes him he could very well take this crew gate to wire and he has proven tough to run down in the SA stretch. The 1/2 mile fraction will tell the story.
B - #1 Will Take Charge (2-1) - if Mucho Macho Man puts pressure on Game on Dude and they both tire that sets up great him. Fired a bullet in his last work and whatever the pace scenerio he'll be running late.
C - #2 Mucho Macho Man (9/5) - I have always liked this horse, but I think he is in a tough spot here. If he puts pace pressure on Game on Dude he could tire early. If he goes with his preferred style and sits a few lengths back he may not be able to catch a loose Game on Dude in the stretch.
D - #3 Blingo (8-1) - got a lot of pace help in the San Antonio, but he did close well.
E - #4 Imperative (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 7,1
Suggest Plays:
$0.50 - 7,1 / 7,1,2 / 7,1,2 = $2.00
$0.50 - 7,1,2 / 7,1,2 / 7,1,2 = $3.00
$0.50 - 7,1 / 7,1,2 / 7,1,2,3,4 = $6.00
$0.50 - 7,1 / 3,4 / 7,1,2 = $2.00
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