3-29-2014 - Fair Grounds Louisiana Derby Day - Races 7,10,11

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Updated 12:10pm EST.
 
Race Rating System-I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - can usually key A & B horses in exotics.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics. 


Race 7 - 1-1/16mi Fair Ground Oaks G2 - Action
A - #3 Fiftyshadesofgold (3-1) - draw a line thru 2 back, should move forward here which would put her in the thick of it.  Like Smith riding.
B - #1 Untapable (4/5) - nice triple digit beyer last out, but is beatable at a short price
C - #5 Unbridled Forever (9/5) - one of top 3 best, but morning line seems like a short price
D - #2 Mary Rita (20-1) - maybe the speed of the race, good value for exotic bet

Multi-Race Horses - 3,1,5
Suggest Play:
$3 - 3/1 = $3
$1 - 3 / 5,2 = $2 
$2 - 1 / 3 = $2 HIT $7.20


Race 10 - 1-1/8mi New Orleans Handicap - Action
A - #1 Bradester (5-1) - appears to be the speed of the race, if track is sealed this could be to his advantage
B - #8 Palace Malice (8/5) - has strung together some really good #'s, surprisingly though it has only come with one win.  Appears on top of his game, but needs a win
C - #5 Normandy Invasion (7/2) - like this horse, but just not sure he can get the best of the top 2 here
D - #7 Fordubai (8-1)

Multi-Race Horses - 1,8
Suggest Play:
$2 - 1 / 8 / 5,7 = $4
$1 - 1 / 8 / 6 = $1
$1 = 1 / 5,7 / 8 = $2
$1 = 8 / 1 / 5,7,6 = $3
$0.50 = 8 / 5,7 / 1 = $1

 
Race 11 - 1-1/8 mi Louisiana Derby G2 - Action
A - #6 Vicar's in Trouble (4-1) - going against 68% of LAD winners finished 1st or 2nd in their last out.  I like the post for the style here.  Prove he could run in the Lecomte.  Hung wide in Risen Star.  WINNER $8.60
B - #1 Instense Holiday (2-1) - very likely, but will need to work a trip
C - #10 Albano (9/2) - close 2nd in the Risen Star and has always been in the exacta at Fg.  Distance questions.
D - #9 In Trouble (4-1)
E - #8 Rise Up (10-1)

Multi-Race Horses - 6,1
Suggest Play:
$1 - 6,1 / 6,1,10 / 6,1,10 = $4
$1 - 6,1 / 6,1 / 10,9,8 = $6
$0.50 - 6,1 / 10,9,8 / 6,1 = $3