Money On The Nose: March 2014

Monday, March 31, 2014

3-31-14 Current Derby Points Standings & Upcoming Races List

#1 - Vicar's in Trouble
#2 - Constitution
#3 - Toast of New York
#4 - Intense Holiday
#5 - Wildcat Red
#6 - We Miss Artie
#7 - Samraat
#8 - Hoppertunity
#9 - Chitu
#10 - Midnight Hawk
#11 - Ring Weekend
#12 - California Chrome
#13 - Tapiture
#14 - General a Rod
#15 - Asmar
#16 - Albano
#17 - Cairo Prince
#18 - Uncle Sigh
#19 - Harry's Holiday
#20 - Commanding Curve
#21 - Vinceremos
#22 - Emirates Flyer
#23 - Honor Code
#24 - Kristo
#25 - Havana
#26 - Coastline
#27 - Ride On Curlin
#28 - Tamarando
#29 - Strong Mandate
#30 - Bond Holder
#31 - Tanzanite Cat
#32 - Surfing U S A
#33 - Giovanni Boldini
#34 - Commissioner
#35 - Cleburne
#36 - In Trouble
#37 - Top Billing
#38 - Candy Boy
#39 - Rise Up
#40 - New Year's Day
#41 - Ami's Holiday
#42 - Noble Moon
#43 - Financial Mogul
#44 - Rebranded
#45 - Casiguapo
#46 - Classic Giacnroll
#47 - Conquest Team
#48 - Asserting Bear
#49 - Schoolofhardrocks
#50 - East Hall
#51 - Walt
#52 - Laddie Boy
#53 - Dance with Fate
#54 - Scotland
#55 - Big Bazinga
#56 - Smart Cover
#57 - Conquest Titan
#58 - Dance With Fate
#59 - Smarty's Echo
#60 - Roman Unbridled
#61 - Ride on Curlin
#62 - Wicked Strong
#63 - Go Greeley
#64 - Ontology
#65 - Enterprising
#66 - Gold Hawk
#67 - Artic Slope
#68 - Rankhasprivileges
#69 - Awesome Sky
#70 - I'll Wrap It Up
#71 - Give No Quarter
#72 - Can the Man
#73 - Son of a Preacher
#74 - Rum Point
#75 - Almost Famous
#76 - Diamond Bachelor
#77 - Puppy Manners
#78 - Matuszak
#79 - Buck Magic

120
100
100
93
90
60
60
55
54
52
50
50
42
40
40
34
24
24
20
20
20
20
14
14
14
13
13
12
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Saturday, March 29, 2014

3-29-2014 Gulfstream Park - Florida Derby Day Races 4,6,8,14

Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including Positive ROI Stats, high percentage key horses and our analysis. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website BigDayStats.com

Purchase Florida Derby & Louisiana Derby Stat Guides

Updated 12:10pm EST.

Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - can usually key A & B horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.

Race 4 - 1-1/8 mi Rampart G3 - Play
A - #2 Devil Care (2-1) - if this horse goes off at 2-1, that would be a steal. seems much the best and has lots of speed to run away from these.
B - #8 Unlimited Budget (3-1) - she ran some great races this time last year, but has since been flat. Still the besides the #2 the others in here aren't that good. Going to give her one more shot.
C - #3 Triple Arch (6-1) - should sit close in what appears to be a race without much speed
D - #5 Private Ensign (8-1)

Multi-Race Horses - 2
Suggest Play:
$3 - 2 / 8,3 / 8,3 = $6
$1 - 2 / 8,3 / 5,6 = $4
$0.50 - 2 / 5,6 / 8,3 = $2

Race 6 - 1-1/8 mi Gulfstream Oaks G2 - Play
A - #6 In Tune (2-1) - seems to be the main speed, her race to lose WINNER $4.00
B - #5 Whomping Willow (4-1) - should be poised to take over is In Tune can't take them all the way
C - #8 House Rules (3-1) - should get a good stalking trip on the outside
D - #4 Joint Return (10-1) - not much pace help for style, but did close in a pace less race last out. Good exotics value.
E - #3 Camille Claudel (8-1)

Multi-Race Horses - 6,5
Suggest Play:
$1 - 6,5 / 6,5 / 8,4 = $4
$1 - 6,5 / 6,5 / 8,4,3 = $6
$0.50 - 6,5 / 8,4,3 / 6,5 = $3

Race 8 - 6-1/2f Sir Shackleton Stakes - Action
A - #9 Ribo Bobo (5/2) - like the speed and outside draw, hoping he can hold. he's only 1 for 5 at this distance
B - #7 Dad'z Laugh (5-1) - really like the post for his running style, should be able to sit in the clear just off the pace
C - #1 Happy My Way (3-1) - lots of speed and will have to go from the rail position
D - #10 Cozzetti (8-1) - is crossed enter, but I think the could be a horse that could sneak into the exotics that will ignored
E - #5 Red Hot Randy (6-1)

Multi-Race Horses - 9,7,1
Suggest Play:
$3 - 9 / 7,1 = $6
$1 - 9 / 10,5 = $2
$1 - 7,1 / 9 = $2

Race 14 - 1-1/8mi Florida Derby G1 - Play
A - #6 General a Rod (7/2) - was game in stretch last out, like the post putting him outside the other 2 favorites, has proven he can sit and rate as well
B - #3 Cairo Prince (9/5) - speed duel up front will help and has a real shot if that develops, will be looking to close from just off the pace
C - #4 Constitution (4-1) - could be the now horse, will be interested to see if they sit or go early
D - #1 Wildcat Red (3-1) - drawn on the rail he'll have to go early, was game in Fountain of Youth
E - #5 East Hall (20-1) - has some decent form if he can regain it, lots of value for exotics

Multi-Race Horses - 6,3
Suggest Play:
$4 - 6 / 3 = $4
$2 - 6 / 4 = $2
$1 - 6 / 1 = $1
$1 - 3,4,1 / 6 = $3
$1 - 3,4,1 / 3,4,1 = $6 HIT $19.10

3-29-2014 - Fair Grounds Louisiana Derby Day - Races 7,10,11

Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including Positive ROI Stats, high percentage key horses and our analysis. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website BigDayStats.com

Purchase Florida Derby & Louisiana Derby Stat Guides

Updated 12:10pm EST.

Race Rating System-I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - can usually key A & B horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.

Race 7 - 1-1/16mi Fair Ground Oaks G2 - Action
A - #3 Fiftyshadesofgold (3-1) - draw a line thru 2 back, should move forward here which would put her in the thick of it. Like Smith riding.
B - #1 Untapable (4/5) - nice triple digit beyer last out, but is beatable at a short price
C - #5 Unbridled Forever (9/5) - one of top 3 best, but morning line seems like a short price
D - #2 Mary Rita (20-1) - maybe the speed of the race, good value for exotic bet

Multi-Race Horses - 3,1,5
Suggest Play:
$3 - 3/1 = $3
$1 - 3 / 5,2 = $2
$2 - 1 / 3 = $2 HIT $7.20

Race 10 - 1-1/8mi New Orleans Handicap - Action
A - #1 Bradester (5-1) - appears to be the speed of the race, if track is sealed this could be to his advantage
B - #8 Palace Malice (8/5) - has strung together some really good #'s, surprisingly though it has only come with one win. Appears on top of his game, but needs a win
C - #5 Normandy Invasion (7/2) - like this horse, but just not sure he can get the best of the top 2 here
D - #7 Fordubai (8-1)

Multi-Race Horses - 1,8
Suggest Play:
$2 - 1 / 8 / 5,7 = $4
$1 - 1 / 8 / 6 = $1
$1 = 1 / 5,7 / 8 = $2
$1 = 8 / 1 / 5,7,6 = $3
$0.50 = 8 / 5,7 / 1 = $1

Race 11 - 1-1/8 mi Louisiana Derby G2 - Action
A - #6 Vicar's in Trouble (4-1) - going against 68% of LAD winners finished 1st or 2nd in their last out. I like the post for the style here. Prove he could run in the Lecomte. Hung wide in Risen Star. WINNER $8.60
B - #1 Instense Holiday (2-1) - very likely, but will need to work a trip
C - #10 Albano (9/2) - close 2nd in the Risen Star and has always been in the exacta at Fg. Distance questions.
D - #9 In Trouble (4-1)
E - #8 Rise Up (10-1)

Multi-Race Horses - 6,1
Suggest Play:
$1 - 6,1 / 6,1,10 / 6,1,10 = $4
$1 - 6,1 / 6,1 / 10,9,8 = $6
$0.50 - 6,1 / 10,9,8 / 6,1 = $3

Friday, March 21, 2014

Spiral Stakes & Sunland Derby Stats Guide

Here is the stats guide for the Spiral Stakes & Sunland Derby Stats Guide. The link below will take you to my website where you can download the .pdf guide. It's free, enjoy!

The guide follows the same format as the others with stats on post position, running style, post time favorite, average running times, top 4 finishers by last race finish, top 4 finishers by last race track, payouts (average, high and low), key horses and a winners list from the previous 20 years.

Know the Stats before you Bet!

Click the link below to view or download the Guide on our website:
Spiral Stakes & Sunland Derby Stats Guide

What's included in our Guide?

Stat Example from one of our Guides:
In the last 20 years, 83% of the Trifecta finishers in the Risen Star finished either 1^st or 2^nd in their previous start.

Our guides provide detailed stats over the last 20 years for:

Post Position
High Percentage Key Horses for exotics
Top 4 Finishers by Running Style
Par Time (Average Running Time) Comparison Analysis
Post Time Favorite Stats
Top 4 Finishers by Last Prep Finish
Top 4 Finishers by Last Prep Track
Average, Low and High Payouts Stats
Average Running Times
Past Winners List that includes Fractional Times
Our Analysis of the Stats
Positive ROI Stats

Make informed decision when it comes to handicapping. Know the Stats before you Bet!

Click the link below to view or download the Guide on our website:
Spiral Stakes & Sunland Derby Stats Guide

Saturday, March 15, 2014

2014 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn Park

Rebel Stakes Stats Guide
Here is the stats guide for the Rebel Stakes. The link below will take you to my website where you can download the .pdf guide. It's free, enjoy!

The guide follows the same format as the others with stats on post position, running style, post time favorite, average running times, top 4 finishers by last race finish, top 4 finishers by last race track, payouts (average, high and low), key horses and a winners list from the previous 20 years.

Click the link below to view or download the Guide on our website:
Rebel Stakes Stats Guide

Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - can usually key A & B horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.

Rebel Stakes - Pre Scratches.

Race 11 - 1-1/16mi Rebel Stakes G1 - Play
A - #3 Tapiture (9/5) - looked great winning the Southwest, though it was with a great trip. Stats for the post time favorite and horses that have run above par in any Kentucky Derby prep race make him a really good exotic key.
B - #8 Kobe's Back (7/2)
C - #4 Strong Mandate (2-1)
D - #5 Hoppertunity (10-1)
E - #7 Street Strategy (8-1)

Multi-Race Horses - 3,8,4

Suggest Plays:
Trifecta $13 Play - uses the 3 has a key horse
$0.50 - 3 / 8,4 / 8,4 = $1
$0.50 - 3 / 8,4 / 8,4,5,7,2 = $4
$0.50 - 8,4 / 3 / 8,4,5,7 = $3
$0.50 - 8,4 / 8,4,5,7 / 3 = $3
$0.50 - 5,7 / 3 / 8,4 = $2

Superfecta $8.40 Play - uses the 3 as a key horse and to make the most of the selections it can hit twice if the 3 runs first and the 8 and 4 run second and third
$0.10 - 3 / 8,4 / 8,4,5,7 / 8,4,5,7,2 = $1.80
$0.10 - 3 / 8,4,5,7 / 8,4 / 8,4,5,7,2 = $1.80
$0.10 - 8,4 / 3 / 8,4,5,7 / 8,4,5,7,2 = $1.80
$0.10 - 8,4 / 8,4,5,7 / 3 / 8,4,5,7,2 = $1.80
$0.10 - 5,7 / 3 / 8,4 / 8,4,5,7,2 = $1.20

Friday, March 14, 2014

Rebel Stakes Stats Guide

Here is the stats guide for the Rebel Stakes. The link below will take you to my website where you can download the .pdf guide. It's free, enjoy!

The guide follows the same format as the others with stats on post position, running style, post time favorite, average running times, top 4 finishers by last race finish, top 4 finishers by last race track, payouts (average, high and low), key horses and a winners list from the previous 20 years.

Know the Stats before you Bet!

Click the link below to view or download the Guide on our website:
Rebel Stakes Stats Guide

What's included in our Guide?

Stat Example from one of our Guides:
In the last 20 years, 83% of the Trifecta finishers in the Risen Star finished either 1^st or 2^nd in their previous start.

Our guides provide detailed stats over the last 20 years for:

Post Position
High Percentage Key Horses for exotics
Top 4 Finishers by Running Style
Par Time (Average Running Time) Comparison Analysis
Post Time Favorite Stats
Top 4 Finishers by Last Prep Finish
Top 4 Finishers by Last Prep Track
Average, Low and High Payouts Stats
Average Running Times
Past Winners List that includes Fractional Times
Our Analysis of the Stats
Positive ROI Stats

Make informed decision when it comes to handicapping. Know the Stats before you Bet!

Click the link below to view or download the Guide on our website:
Rebel Stakes Stats Guide

Saturday, March 8, 2014

Tampa Bay Derby, San Felipe, Kilroe Mile, Santa Anita Handicap Selections

San Felipe & Tampa Bay Derby Stats Guide
Here is the stats guide for the San Felipe & Tampa Bay Derby. The link below will take you to my website where you can download the .pdf guide. It's free, enjoy!

The guide follows the same format as the others with stats on post position, running style, post time favorite, average running times, top 4 finishers by last race finish, top 4 finishers by last race track, payouts (average, high and low), key horses and a winners list from the previous 20 years.

Click the link below to view or download the Guide on our website:
San Felipe Stakes & Tampa Bay Derby Stats Guide

Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - can usually key A & B horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.

Tampa Bay - Pre Scratches.

Race 11 - 1-1/16mi Tampa Bay Derby G2 - Action
A - #6 Vinceremos (4-1) - should sit a good trip, horses that won their previous start are 55%
B - #5 Conquest Titan (7/2) - has run some decent #'s, is one of 2 horses that fit a criteria that 83% of the time fill at least 1 Trifecta spot.
C - #2 Surfing U S A (3-1) - has run well, but not in stakes company. being a Pletcher horse he will take money.
D - #7 East Hall (10-1) - solid #'s, but horses that were not 1st or 2nd in their previous start only win 25% of the time. He is the other horse that fit a criteria that 83% of the time fill at least 1 Trifecta spot.
E - #8 Cousin Stephen (9/2)

Important Stats:
In the last 20 years...

Horses that ran above the average running time (par time) in any Kentucky Derby qualifying prep race have occupied one spot in the Trifecta in 10 of the 12 years (83%) where the field contained a horse that fit these criteria. Horses in this year's Tampa Bay Derby that fit these criteria are:
#5 Conquest Titan (Holy Bull - Par Rating: 108)
#7 East Hall (Fountain of Youth - Par Rating: 100)

Post Time Favorite Stats: 35% win, 60% in Exacta, 75% in Trifecta, 85% in Superfecta.

Horses that won their previous start have won the Tampa Bay Derby at 55%. And horses that were either 1st or 2nd in their previous start have won at 75% and filled 75% of the Exacta spots.

Multi-Race Horses - 6,5,2

Suggest Plays:
$0.10 - 6 / 2,5 / 2,5 / 7,8,1,9 = $.80
$0.10 - 6,2 / 5 / 6,2,7,8 / 6,2,7,8,1,9 = $2.40
$0.10 - 6,2 / 6,2,7,8 / 5 / 6,2,7,8,1,9 = $2.40
$0.10 - 5 / 6,2 / 6,2,7,8 / 6,2,7,8,1,9 = $2.40
$0.10 - 5 / 6,2,7,8 / 6,2 / 6,2,7,8,1,9 = $2.40

Santa Anita - Pre Scratches.

Race 5 - 1-1/16mi San Felipe G2 - Action
A - #7 Kristo (5/2) - i think it is possible for this guy to grab the lead and go gate to wire, like the 2/24 work and has never been out of the Exacta. Horses that were 1st or 2nd in their previous start combine for a 70% win average.
B - #9 Midnight Hawk (5/2) - ran well in the Robert B. Lewis with a par rating of 101, which makes him a good Trifecta key based on the stat below. has good #'s and like that he is drawn outside.
C - #4 California chrome (9/5) - horses that were 1st their last out have won at 55% and filled 62% of the Trifecta spots. Has good #'s with a win at this distance at SA.
D - #2 Unstoppable Colby (15-1) - big #'s last out was earned while on the lead, should be forwardly placed, not sure how far back he'll fade. Exotics use.
E - #8 Schoolofhardrocks (9/2) - surface switcher with 2 nice recent works and 1st time Lasix. who knows, exotics use.

Important Stats:
In the last 20 years...

Horses that ran above the average running time (par time) in any Kentucky Derby qualifying prep race have occupied one spot in the Trifecta in 11 of the 15 years (73%) where the field contained a horse that fit these criteria. Only one horse in this year's San Felipe field fits these criteria:
#9 Midnight Hawk (Robert B. Lewis - Par Rating: 101)

Post Time Favorite Stats: 30% win, 70% in Exacta, 85% in Trifecta, 90% in Superfecta.

Horses that won their previous start have won the Tampa Bay Derby at 55%. And horses that were either 1st or 2nd in their previous start have won at 70% and filled 70% of the Exacta spots and 75% of the Trifecta spots.

Multi-Race Horses - 7,9,4

Suggest Plays:
Takes my selections into consideration with stats from above.
$0.10 - 4,9 / 4,9 / 7,2,8,3 / 7,2,8,3 = $2.40
$0.10 - 4,9 / 7,2,8 / 4,9 / 7,2,8,3 = $1.80
$0.10 - 4,9 / 7,2,8 / 7,2,8,3 / 4,9 = $1.80
$0.10 - 7,2,8 / 4,9 / 4,9 / 7,2,8,3 = $1.80
$0.10 - 7,2,8 / 4,9 / 7,2,8,3 / 4,9 = $1.80
$0.10 - 7,2,8 / 7,2,8 / 4,9 / 4,9 = $1.20

Race 8 - 1mi Frank E. Kilroe Mile G1 TURF - Action
A - #5 Za Approval (3-1) - on best day he should handle these, we'll see if he can fire fresh
B - #9 Silento (7/2) - has got the class and never out of Trifecta at SA and 6 out of 7 in Trifecta at this distance
C - #3 Optimizer (12-1) - this guy found a home on the turf, not sure he can win here, but exotics is not out of the picture and if the 12-1 is correct he should offer some value
D - #6 Winning Prize (7/2) - has got some early speed and some decent class and has never been out of the exacta at this distance, we'll see how long he can hold on up front
E - #2 Regally Ready (8-1) - is 4 out of 7 at SA on the turf with some good #'s, should be forwardly placed

Multi-Race Horses - 5,9,3,6

Suggest Plays:
$0.50 - 5 / 9,3,6,2 / 9,3,6,2 = $6
$0.50 - 9,3,6,2 / 5 / 9,3,6,2 = $6

Race 9 - 1-1/4mi Santa Anita Handicap G1 - Play
A - #7 Game on Dude (5/2) - if no one pushes him he could very well take this crew gate to wire and he has proven tough to run down in the SA stretch. The 1/2 mile fraction will tell the story.
B - #1 Will Take Charge (2-1) - if Mucho Macho Man puts pressure on Game on Dude and they both tire that sets up great him. Fired a bullet in his last work and whatever the pace scenerio he'll be running late.
C - #2 Mucho Macho Man (9/5) - I have always liked this horse, but I think he is in a tough spot here. If he puts pace pressure on Game on Dude he could tire early. If he goes with his preferred style and sits a few lengths back he may not be able to catch a loose Game on Dude in the stretch.
D - #3 Blingo (8-1) - got a lot of pace help in the San Antonio, but he did close well.
E - #4 Imperative (12-1)

Multi-Race Horses - 7,1

Suggest Plays:
$0.50 - 7,1 / 7,1,2 / 7,1,2 = $2.00
$0.50 - 7,1,2 / 7,1,2 / 7,1,2 = $3.00
$0.50 - 7,1 / 7,1,2 / 7,1,2,3,4 = $6.00
$0.50 - 7,1 / 3,4 / 7,1,2 = $2.00

Thursday, March 6, 2014

San Felipe Stakes & Tampa Bay Derby Stats Guide

Here is the stats guide for the San Felipe & Tampa Bay Derby. The link below will take you to my website where you can download the .pdf guide. It's free, enjoy!

The guide follows the same format as the others with stats on post position, running style, post time favorite, average running times, top 4 finishers by last race finish, top 4 finishers by last race track, payouts (average, high and low), key horses and a winners list from the previous 20 years.

Know the Stats before you Bet!

Click the link below to view or download the Guide on our website:
San Felipe Stakes & Tampa Bay Derby Stats Guide

What's included in our Guide?

Stat Example from one of our Guides:In the last 20 years, 83% of the Trifecta finishers in the Risen Star finished either 1^st or 2^nd in their previous start.

Our guides provide detailed stats over the last 20 years for:

Post Position
High Percentage Key Horses for exotics
Top 4 Finishers by Running Style
Par Time (Average Running Time) Comparison Analysis
Post Time Favorite Stats
Top 4 Finishers by Last Prep Finish
Top 4 Finishers by Last Prep Track
Average, Low and High Payouts Stats
Average Running Times
Past Winners List that includes Fractional Times
Our Analysis of the Stats
Positive ROI Stats

Make informed decision when it comes to handicapping. Know the Stats before you Bet!

Click the link below to view or download the Guide on our website:
San Felipe Stakes & Tampa Bay Derby Stats Guide