Updated 12:02pm for Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 5 - 1-1/16mi OC - Action+
A - #3 Allied Air Raid (6-1) - could be the lone speed of the race, plus he's always finished in the exacta at this distance
B - #10 Freestyler (4-1) - seems to relish the distance, has been working well, will need a little pace
C - #9 Commanding Curve (8-1) - I like the horse for course angle here for him to hit the board, he's 5 for 5 in the Trifecta at CD, another one that would benefit from some pace
D - #2 Bold Conquest (9/2) - will need some pace and he's only 1 for 12 at this distance, exotics use
E - #12 Gotham News (5-1) - is 0 for 4, but is taking a slight class drop from facing 4 year olds and has worked well, exotics use
Multi-Race Horses: 3,10
Suggest Plays:
Race 6 - 1mi Distaff Turf Mile G2 - Play
A - #1 Tepin (1/2) - she's very much the class of the race, I can't find a reason to not put her on top, he she runs her races she wins
B - #4 Isabella Sings (3-1) - should set the pace and may find herself alone in that spot, she'll be the one Tepin has to run down in the stretch
C - #8 Zipessa (20-1) - has been working very well she's 2 for 2 at this distance, could hit the board at a big price
D - #3 Cash Control (20-1)
E - #5 Bureau de Change (30-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 1,4
Suggest Plays:
$0.50 - 1 / 4,8,3,2 / 4,8,3,2,9,5 = $10
$0.50 - 1 / 9,5 / 4,8,3,2,9,5 = $7.50
$0.50 - 1,4,8 / 1,4,8 / 4,8,3,2,9,5 = $14.00
Race 7 - 7f Churchill Downs G2 - Action+
A - #6 Speightster (6-1) - I always respect were Bill Mott spots his horses, has been working very well and seems ready to fire off the layoff.
B - #7 Holy Boss (8-1) - some speed in this race that seems to be lacking speed, has a win over the CD surface, could take this gate to wire at a big price
C - #5 Limousine Liberal (9/2) - has won at CD, working well
D - #9 Catalina Red (15-1)
E - #8 Salutos Amigos (5/2)
Multi-Race Horses: 6,7,5
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 6,7 / 6,7,5,9,8,3 = $10
Race 8 - 7f Humana Distaff G1 - Play
A - #10 Wavell Avenue (3-1) - could very well be the best in here 2nd off the layout, obviously has some class, should benefit from several speed horses in the race
B - #2 Stonetastic (3-1) - may be the speed of speed, but is 0 for 2 at CD
C - #8 Taris (5/2) - may sit a good trip on the outside, but is another speed horse of several in the race
D - #9 Birdatthewire (5-1)
E - #7 Kathballu (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 10,2
Suggest Plays:
$0.50 - 10 / 2,4,8,9 / 2,4,8,9,7,6 = $10
$0.50 - 2,4,8,9 / 10 / 2,4,8,9,7,6 = $10
$0.50 - 10 / 2,4,8 / 2,4,8,9 = $10
Race 9 - 1-1/16 mi American Turf G2 - Play
A - #8 Shakhimat (5-1) - has worked extremely well and may very well be the lone speed in the race, looking for a gate to wire performance
B - #1 Airoforce (4-1) - has worked well and gets back to preferred surface, definite contender
C - #4 Beach Patrol (8-1)
D - #11 Dressed in Hermes (5-1)
E - #3 Converge (5-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 8,1,4
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 8,1,4 / 8,1,4 = $6
$1 - 8,1 / 11,3,10 = $6
$0.50 - 8 / 1,4,11,3 / 1,4,11,3,10 = $8
$0.50 - 1,4,11,3 / 8 / 1,4,11,3,10 = $8
Race 10 - 1 mi Pat Day Mile G3 - Play
A - #11 American Freedom (6-1) - could very well be much the best in here based off that last performance, he's working well and it seems Baffert has this one primed
B - #10 Cocked and Loaded (6-1) - ran some decent races during the Ky Derby prep season and has won at CD, looking for a good effort here
C - #5 Imperial Hint (15-1)
D - #6 Sharp Azteca (8-1)
E - #9 Fellowship (5-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 11,10,5
Suggest Plays:
$0.50 - 11 / 10,5,6,9 / 10,5,6,9,7,13,1 = $12
$1 - 11 / 10,5,6,9 = $4
Race 11 - 1-1/8mi Turf Classic G1 - Action
A - #12 Big Blue Kitten (5/2) - is the class of the field, needs some pace
B - #8 Divisidero (15-1) - another one that needs some pace, but is moving forward and has won on the CD turf
C - #3 Bolo (8-1) - on preferred surface and is 4 for 7 on the turf, is a G2 winner and is looking for that G1, should be stalking the pace and get first run at the leaders
D - #10 Tourist (8-1) - has worked well leading up to this
E - #6 Slumber (3-1) - another horse that fits here and has been working well
Value Add-
#7 Midnight Storm (10-1) - multiple G2 winner and is 50% on the turf, exotics booster
#2 Chocolate Ride (15-1) - may set the pace and hang around for the exotics, is 7 for 12 on the turf and 4 for 7 at this distance on the turf
Multi-Race Horses: 12,8,3,10,6
Suggest Plays:
Race 12 - 1-1/4 miles Kentucky Derby G1 - Action
A - #11 Exaggerator (8-1) - I thought his SA Derby victory was very impressive. Now some will say
that the track helped him and that may be the case, but I think there
will be more speed than is expected and he could likely be the main one
to benefit from that. I have confidence that Kent Desormeaux can work
out a good trip. His par rating in the SA Derby was extremely difficult
to calculate and I would draw a line through that number. My top pick.
B - #15 Outwork (10-1) - His time in the Wood Memorial was excruciatingly slow and that is
evident by the low par rating. However, that was on a Muddy track and
he has trained very very well leading up to the Derby. I did like the
way he held his position all the way to the wire against a foe that was
trying desperately to get past him. His Tampa Bay Derby number shows he
can run and he fits a lot of high percentage stats. Definite win
contender and exotics use.
C - #13 Nyquist (3-1) - Is the 2yr old champion and is undefeated. Usually, we would be having
Triple Crown dreams for a horse like this, but after the American
Pharoah hangover there just isn't as much buzz around him. But I thin
that is unfair as he has done nothing wrong. With several speed horses
on the outside of him, Mario will have to workout a trip, but if he is
close and in the clear on the 2nd turn he could be tough. Definite win
contender and exotics use.
D - #9 Destin (15-1) - This guy is interesting to me. He broke is maiden at Belmont, but his
only other wins have come at Tampa Bay Downs. His he a horse for course
at Tampa Bay Downs or can he bring the goods here at Churchill. With
that in mind, he still ran a good race last out and the 8 weeks off
bothers some, but this is Todd Pletcher who wins very well off the
layoff. His last out par rating is as good as any in this field. Upset
chance, definite exotics use.
E - #14 Mohaymen (10-1) - He had done nothing wrong until his last race where he finished a well
beaten 4th. Maybe he didn't like the surface or there was another issue
that has been corrected, but McLaughlin seems high on him and he has
trained better and better leading up to the Derby. He is going to have
to buck one stat - 86% of the Derby winners ran either 1st or 2nd in
their previous race. Possible win contender, definite exotics use.
Value Adds -
#3 Creator (10-1) - I've heard he is working pretty good, but he's never run above par in
any prep, which is something that 90% of the last 22 Derby winners have
done. Going with bottom exotics use only.
#2 Suddenbreakingnews (20-1) - Not crazy about the post position, but he is a closer so the inside post
will not hurt him as much. He was closing well in the Arkansas Derby
and the workout reports have been really good. Not sure he is fast
enough to win, but he'd be a nice price to hit the exotics. Definite
bottom exotics use.
#19 Brody's Cause (12-1) - Closed well to win the Blue Grass, but he wasn't as good as Exaggerator,
Nyquist or Outwork in his last race. I don't ever discount Dale
Romans, but I just don't think he is quite good enough to beat these,
but he's a definite exotics use.
#17 Mor Spirit (12-1) - Has worked pretty good and until the SA Derby and was always close at
the finish. He did finish a well beaten second in the SA Derby. I
don't think he can win, but could hit the exotics. Bottom end exotics
use.
Multi-Race Horses: 11,15,13,9,14
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 11,15,13 / 11,15,13 = $6
$1 - 11,15,13 / 9,14,3,17,16,20,5,19,2 = $27
$1 - 9,14,3,2,19,17 / 11,15,13 = $18
- AND / OR -
$0.50 - 11 / 15,13,9,14 / 15,13,9,14,3,2,19,17 = $14
$0.50 - 11 / 3,2,19,17 / 15,13,9,14 = $8
$0.50 - 15 / 11,13,9,14 / 11,13,9,14,3,2,19,17 = $14
$0.50 - 15 / 3,2,19,17 / 11,13,9,14 = $8
$0.50 - 13 / 11,13,9,14 / 11,13,9,14,3,2,19,17 = $14
$0.50 - 13 / 3,2,19,17 / 11,13,9,14 = $8
Saturday, May 7, 2016
Friday, May 6, 2016
5/6 - CD Kentucky Oaks Day
Did You Know...
That 91% of the last 22 Kentucky Derby winners share common stat? In this years Kentucky Derby there are 5 horses that meet the criteria. Find out which ones in our Kentucky Derby Stats Guide.
Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 2 - 6-1/2f OC - Play
A - #9 Conquest Serenade (3-1) - should get a good trip from the outside and has been working really well. Numbers fit here.
B - #8 Bold Quality (7/2) - comes in after a layoff, last race was BC Juvenile Fillies, had a nice blowout on the 28th
C - #1 Vickie Wins (4-1) - is one of several speed horses in the race and could be the speed of the speed from post position #1
D - #2 Blast (4-1)
E - #6 Tia Flor (8-1)
Value Add - #7 American Holiday (10-1) - add to the bottom of your exotics for a possible boost
Multi-Race Horses: 9,8
Suggest Plays:
$0.50 - 9,8 / 9,8 / 1,2,6,7 = $4
$0.50 - 9,8 / 1,2,6,7 / 9,8 = $4
$1 - 9,8 / 9,8,1,2,6 = $8
Race 3 - 1mi OC - Action+
A - #6 Street Song (6-1) - has been working very well and may sit the right trip, should be closer to the pace with the addition of blinkers
B - #1 Paid Up Subscriber (3-1) - has won over the CD surface and has the best speed figures, will need to work out a trip from the rail
C - #3 Academic Break (5-1) - has two wins over the CD surface, debut race in 2016 and has had several good workouts, but may need a race
D - #5 Contrasting (5-1) - could be the lone speed of the race, which is always dangerous
E - #9 Misleading Lady (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 6,1,3,5,
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 6,1,3 / 6,1,3,5 = $9
Race 4 - 1-1/16 miles OC - Play
A - #7 Family Tree (9/5) - is working well and just seems much the best in here
B - #4 Firsthand Report (6-1) - could be the lone speed of the race
C - #5 Yankee Lass (6-1)
D - #2 Divine Elegance (8-1)
E - #6 Smart Emma (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 7,4
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 7,4 / 7,4,5,2,6 = $8
$0.50 - 7 / 4,5,2,6 / 4,5,2,6 = $8
Race 5 - 1mi MSW TURF - Action
A - #8 Commend (5/2) - ran one of the #'s in the field last out while just missing, looking for a good effort today
B - #4 Dasaateer (8-1)
C - #11 Go Navy Go (8-1)
D - #3 Uncle Guy (6-1)
E - #5 Tom's d'Etat (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 8,4,11,3,5
Suggest Plays:
Race 6 - 1-1/16 miles La Troienne G1 - Play
A - #2 Sheer Drama (8/5) - has been working extremely well and is likely sitting on a huge effort, but at a short price
B - #1 Curalina (9/5) - another one that has been working well and has a win over the CD surface
C - #5 Penwith (7/2) - could get loose on the lead
D - #3 Angela Renee (6-1)
E - #4 Brooklynsway (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 2,1,5
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 2,1,5 / 2,1,5 = $6
$1 - 2 / 1,5,3,4 = $4
$0.50 - 2 / 1,5 / 1,5,3,4,7 = $4
Race 7 - 7f Eight Belles Stakes G2 - Play
A - #5 Carina Mia (8/5) - has been working extremely well and has a win over the CD surface. Was close in the G1 Ashland last out against some really good competition, but couldn't hang on. Will need to be the speed of the speed to win.
B - #8 Nickname (3-1) - may get the right trip on the outside and if the speed fails she should be in the right position to take over
C - #6 Blip n' The Bye (12-1)
D - #2 Jade Princess (8-1)
E - #3 Summer Reading (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 5,8
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5,8 / 5,8 = $4
$1 - 5,8 / 5,8,6,2,3,1 = $10
$0.50 - 5,8 / 5,8 / 6,2,3,1 = $4
$0.50 - 5,8 / 6,2,3,1 / 5,8 = $4
Race 8 - 5f Turf Sprint TURF G3 - Action+
A - #12 Guns Loaded (4-1) - can really close late, should be right there at the finish and there is plenty of speed to help
B - #1 Power Alert (5-1) - has a win over the CD turf and is 50% at this distance
C - #11 Something Extra (4-1)
D - #7 Hootenanny (7/2)
E - #2 Summation Time (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 12,1,11,7
Suggest Plays:
Lots of value, good time to use Exacta boxes
Race 9 - 1-1/16 miles Alysheba G2 - Action+
A - #4 Eagle (7/2) - has been working well and did post a nice improvement in last race, a little pace would help too
B - #1 Cat Burglar (4-1) - has posted two nice speed figures in last two races and is 2 for 2 at this distance, should have enough gate speed to workout a trip
C - #6 Majestic Affair (9/2) - dropping in class, working well and is 2 for 2 at this distance
D - #7 Top Billing (10-1) - has been working well leading up to this
E - #3 Departing (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 4,1,6,7
Suggest Plays:
Lots of choices, could be plenty of value in Exacta
$1 - 4,1,6 / 4,1,6 = $6
Race 10 - 1-1/16 miles Edgewood G3 TURF - Action
A - #10 Catch a Glimpse (2-1) - is undefeated on the turf in 5 starts and has a win at this distance. I cannot go against horses like this because I have been beaten so many times by them.
B - #9 Believe in Bertie (20-1) - is very likely the speed of the race
C - #13 Heavenly View (15-1) - is 2 for 2 on the turf, hopefully she will not get parked too wide
D - #1 Harmonize (4-1) - always seems to run well on turf and should be close at the finish
E - #5 Ava's Kitten (7/2)
Multi-Race Horses: 10,9,13,1,3
Suggest Plays:
Race 11 - 1-1/8 miles Kentucky Oaks - Play
A - #11 Rachel's Valentina (7/2) - She drew really well to get a good stalking trip. I love her consistent over 100 par ratings and I think she ran the best race in the Ashland where she sat close to pace that had solid fractions, esp through the middle portion of the race. Then she dueled in the stretch, put away that Cathryn Sophia only to get caught by Weep No More at the wire. And, it doesn't hurt that her dam won this race by 20 lengths. She's definitely the horse to beat.
B - #3 Lewis Bay (8-1) - Exploded to win the Gazelle last out. Has been training well, but I think her most appealing quality is that she has won twice at 1-1/8 miles - no other horse in the field has won at that distance. Definite win contender and exotics use.
C - #8 Royal Obsession (20-1) - She won over the CD dirt and I like that. She's improved with every start and has been working well. Not sure she is fast enough to win without a big step forward, but I'd definitely include her in my exotics at a big price.
D - #2 Weep No More (9/2) - Ran a good race last out in the Ashland to get up at the wire after racing well off of the pace. I do think she had some pace help in that race that she may not get here, but you know she'll be running late. She is 1 of 4 horses that ran 100 or greater on our par rating scale in her last race and those horses hit the exotics at a high percentage. Possible win contender, definite exotics use.
E - #12 Cathryn Sophia (9/2) - Made a good run into the stretch of the Ashland, but was out dueled by Rachel's Valentina. Has run some good numbers and is 4 for 5. But, 82% of the winners of the Kentucky Oaks have finished 1st or 2nd in their previous race and she was third by a small margin. She is not without a chance, though I like others better and I'm not willing to go against the 82% stat. Going to use her in the exotics, but not in the win category.
Value Adds -
#6 Mokat (20-1) - has been working extremely well and could blow up the exotics if she can hit the board
#5 Land Over Sea (5-1) - is a shorter price, but is working well and could definitely hit the board and possibly have an upset chance to win
Multi-Race Horses: 11,3
Suggest Plays:
$0.50 - 11 / 3,8,2,12 / 3,8,2,12,4,6,13 = $14
$0.50 - 3,8,2,12 / 11 / 3,8,2,12,4,6,13 = $14
$1- 11,3,8 / 11,3,8,2,12,6,4,13,9 = $24
Oaks/Derby Double
$1 - 11,3,8,2,12 / 11,15,13 = $15
$1 - 11,3 / 11,15,13,9,14,17,2,19,3 = $18
That 91% of the last 22 Kentucky Derby winners share common stat? In this years Kentucky Derby there are 5 horses that meet the criteria. Find out which ones in our Kentucky Derby Stats Guide.
Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 2 - 6-1/2f OC - Play
A - #9 Conquest Serenade (3-1) - should get a good trip from the outside and has been working really well. Numbers fit here.
B - #8 Bold Quality (7/2) - comes in after a layoff, last race was BC Juvenile Fillies, had a nice blowout on the 28th
C - #1 Vickie Wins (4-1) - is one of several speed horses in the race and could be the speed of the speed from post position #1
D - #2 Blast (4-1)
E - #6 Tia Flor (8-1)
Value Add - #7 American Holiday (10-1) - add to the bottom of your exotics for a possible boost
Multi-Race Horses: 9,8
Suggest Plays:
$0.50 - 9,8 / 9,8 / 1,2,6,7 = $4
$0.50 - 9,8 / 1,2,6,7 / 9,8 = $4
$1 - 9,8 / 9,8,1,2,6 = $8
Race 3 - 1mi OC - Action+
A - #6 Street Song (6-1) - has been working very well and may sit the right trip, should be closer to the pace with the addition of blinkers
B - #1 Paid Up Subscriber (3-1) - has won over the CD surface and has the best speed figures, will need to work out a trip from the rail
C - #3 Academic Break (5-1) - has two wins over the CD surface, debut race in 2016 and has had several good workouts, but may need a race
D - #5 Contrasting (5-1) - could be the lone speed of the race, which is always dangerous
E - #9 Misleading Lady (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 6,1,3,5,
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 6,1,3 / 6,1,3,5 = $9
Race 4 - 1-1/16 miles OC - Play
A - #7 Family Tree (9/5) - is working well and just seems much the best in here
B - #4 Firsthand Report (6-1) - could be the lone speed of the race
C - #5 Yankee Lass (6-1)
D - #2 Divine Elegance (8-1)
E - #6 Smart Emma (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 7,4
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 7,4 / 7,4,5,2,6 = $8
$0.50 - 7 / 4,5,2,6 / 4,5,2,6 = $8
Race 5 - 1mi MSW TURF - Action
A - #8 Commend (5/2) - ran one of the #'s in the field last out while just missing, looking for a good effort today
B - #4 Dasaateer (8-1)
C - #11 Go Navy Go (8-1)
D - #3 Uncle Guy (6-1)
E - #5 Tom's d'Etat (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 8,4,11,3,5
Suggest Plays:
Race 6 - 1-1/16 miles La Troienne G1 - Play
A - #2 Sheer Drama (8/5) - has been working extremely well and is likely sitting on a huge effort, but at a short price
B - #1 Curalina (9/5) - another one that has been working well and has a win over the CD surface
C - #5 Penwith (7/2) - could get loose on the lead
D - #3 Angela Renee (6-1)
E - #4 Brooklynsway (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 2,1,5
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 2,1,5 / 2,1,5 = $6
$1 - 2 / 1,5,3,4 = $4
$0.50 - 2 / 1,5 / 1,5,3,4,7 = $4
Race 7 - 7f Eight Belles Stakes G2 - Play
A - #5 Carina Mia (8/5) - has been working extremely well and has a win over the CD surface. Was close in the G1 Ashland last out against some really good competition, but couldn't hang on. Will need to be the speed of the speed to win.
B - #8 Nickname (3-1) - may get the right trip on the outside and if the speed fails she should be in the right position to take over
C - #6 Blip n' The Bye (12-1)
D - #2 Jade Princess (8-1)
E - #3 Summer Reading (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 5,8
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5,8 / 5,8 = $4
$1 - 5,8 / 5,8,6,2,3,1 = $10
$0.50 - 5,8 / 5,8 / 6,2,3,1 = $4
$0.50 - 5,8 / 6,2,3,1 / 5,8 = $4
Race 8 - 5f Turf Sprint TURF G3 - Action+
A - #12 Guns Loaded (4-1) - can really close late, should be right there at the finish and there is plenty of speed to help
B - #1 Power Alert (5-1) - has a win over the CD turf and is 50% at this distance
C - #11 Something Extra (4-1)
D - #7 Hootenanny (7/2)
E - #2 Summation Time (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 12,1,11,7
Suggest Plays:
Lots of value, good time to use Exacta boxes
Race 9 - 1-1/16 miles Alysheba G2 - Action+
A - #4 Eagle (7/2) - has been working well and did post a nice improvement in last race, a little pace would help too
B - #1 Cat Burglar (4-1) - has posted two nice speed figures in last two races and is 2 for 2 at this distance, should have enough gate speed to workout a trip
C - #6 Majestic Affair (9/2) - dropping in class, working well and is 2 for 2 at this distance
D - #7 Top Billing (10-1) - has been working well leading up to this
E - #3 Departing (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 4,1,6,7
Suggest Plays:
Lots of choices, could be plenty of value in Exacta
$1 - 4,1,6 / 4,1,6 = $6
Race 10 - 1-1/16 miles Edgewood G3 TURF - Action
A - #10 Catch a Glimpse (2-1) - is undefeated on the turf in 5 starts and has a win at this distance. I cannot go against horses like this because I have been beaten so many times by them.
B - #9 Believe in Bertie (20-1) - is very likely the speed of the race
C - #13 Heavenly View (15-1) - is 2 for 2 on the turf, hopefully she will not get parked too wide
D - #1 Harmonize (4-1) - always seems to run well on turf and should be close at the finish
E - #5 Ava's Kitten (7/2)
Multi-Race Horses: 10,9,13,1,3
Suggest Plays:
Race 11 - 1-1/8 miles Kentucky Oaks - Play
A - #11 Rachel's Valentina (7/2) - She drew really well to get a good stalking trip. I love her consistent over 100 par ratings and I think she ran the best race in the Ashland where she sat close to pace that had solid fractions, esp through the middle portion of the race. Then she dueled in the stretch, put away that Cathryn Sophia only to get caught by Weep No More at the wire. And, it doesn't hurt that her dam won this race by 20 lengths. She's definitely the horse to beat.
B - #3 Lewis Bay (8-1) - Exploded to win the Gazelle last out. Has been training well, but I think her most appealing quality is that she has won twice at 1-1/8 miles - no other horse in the field has won at that distance. Definite win contender and exotics use.
C - #8 Royal Obsession (20-1) - She won over the CD dirt and I like that. She's improved with every start and has been working well. Not sure she is fast enough to win without a big step forward, but I'd definitely include her in my exotics at a big price.
D - #2 Weep No More (9/2) - Ran a good race last out in the Ashland to get up at the wire after racing well off of the pace. I do think she had some pace help in that race that she may not get here, but you know she'll be running late. She is 1 of 4 horses that ran 100 or greater on our par rating scale in her last race and those horses hit the exotics at a high percentage. Possible win contender, definite exotics use.
E - #12 Cathryn Sophia (9/2) - Made a good run into the stretch of the Ashland, but was out dueled by Rachel's Valentina. Has run some good numbers and is 4 for 5. But, 82% of the winners of the Kentucky Oaks have finished 1st or 2nd in their previous race and she was third by a small margin. She is not without a chance, though I like others better and I'm not willing to go against the 82% stat. Going to use her in the exotics, but not in the win category.
Value Adds -
#6 Mokat (20-1) - has been working extremely well and could blow up the exotics if she can hit the board
#5 Land Over Sea (5-1) - is a shorter price, but is working well and could definitely hit the board and possibly have an upset chance to win
Multi-Race Horses: 11,3
Suggest Plays:
$0.50 - 11 / 3,8,2,12 / 3,8,2,12,4,6,13 = $14
$0.50 - 3,8,2,12 / 11 / 3,8,2,12,4,6,13 = $14
$1- 11,3,8 / 11,3,8,2,12,6,4,13,9 = $24
Oaks/Derby Double
$1 - 11,3,8,2,12 / 11,15,13 = $15
$1 - 11,3 / 11,15,13,9,14,17,2,19,3 = $18
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