Below are statistics and my selections for the Southwest Stakes run on Monday 2/16 at Oaklawn Park. I will continue to post Free statistics for the remaining Kentucky Derby Future Wagers and the 50 point qualifying races. The Statistic Guides for the 100 point qualifying races and the Triple Crown races may be purchased on my website at www.bigdaystats.com
Key Stats
*Note - The Southwest Stakes was spit into two divisions in 2012 and 2002. This means in 21 years the race has actually been contested 23 times.
The stat that really jumps off the page at me is that 17 out of the last 23 winners (74%) won their previous start. There are 4 horses entered this year that match this criteria, they are Hillbilly Royalty, Far Right, Kantune and Bold Animaux. Also, add in the 3 years where the winner of the Southwest finished 2nd in their previous start and that percentage covers 87% of the last 23 winners.
In 10 of the last 21 years the Southwest Stakes field has contained at least one horse that ran the average running time (referred to as par or 100 on our scale) or greater in their previous race. These horses won the Southwest in 6 out of those 10 years (60%) and produced a positive ROI of 83%. In those 10 years, there have been 12 horses total run in the Southwest that ran par or greater in their previous race. They have a Superfecta record of 6-0-2-1. The horses that fit this criteria in this years race are Far Right (102), Bayerd (100) and Mr. Z (100). These horses are excellent key horses to use in exotic bets.
Horses that run either on the lead or within 2 lengths of the leader seem to do well. They have won 15 out of 23 Southwest Stakes.
Selections & Analysis
OP Race 8 - Southwest Stakes G3 - Action+
A - #6 Far Right (5/2) - Horses that have run a 102 or higher in their last race have won the Southwest 56% of the time, been in the Trifecta 89% and the Superfecta 100%. Also, horses that won their last start are 17 for 23. He seems the best and having Mike Smith doesn't hurt, but he'll need some pace. Win choice and I think the stats make him the best key horses.
B - #1 Bayerd (5-1) - Horses that ran above par in the previous race are 60% with a positive ROI. If he goes off at 5-1 I think he offers good value.
C - #11 Mr. Z (3-1) - He's run some good numbers, but he needs to prove he can win. Though two of those races were decided by a head or less. Probably going to let him beat me in the win category, exotics use.
D - #3 Hillbilly Royalty (7/2) - Newcomer to the race once it was rescheduled. Big speed figure last out was earned while racing solely on the lead. Lots to prove. Exotics.
E - #4 Private Prospect (12-1) - I don't see him winning, but I think he could land in the exotics at a price.
Multi-Race Horses: 6,1,11
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 6 / 1,11,3 / 1,11,3 = $6
$0.50 - 6 / 1,11,3,4 / 1,11,3,4 = $6
$0.50 - 1,11,3 / 6 / 1,11,3,4 = $4.50
$0.50 - 1,11,3 / 1,11,3,4 / = $4.50
Southwest Stakes Stats
| Superfecta Finishers by Post Position | ||||||
| Post | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Total Top 4 | Total Races |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 23 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 23 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 23 |
| 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 14 |
| 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Totals | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | ||
| Superfecta Finishes by Running Style | ||||||
| On Lead | 1-2L | 2-5L | 5-10L | 10-15L | 15+L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 2nd | 7 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| 3rd | 1 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| 4th | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| Total | 18 | 13 | 27 | 16 | 14 | 4 |
| Post Time Favorite Stats | |
| Post Time Favorite Winners | 10 |
| Post Time Favorite Second | 2 |
| Post Time Favorite Third | 2 |
| Post Time Favorite Fourth | 2 |
| Average Running Times | |||||
| Surface - Track Condition | Avg Opening 1/4 | Avg Opening 1/2 | Avg Opening 3/4 | Closing Fraction | Avg Final Time (Total Races) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirt - 1-1/16 Miles - Sloppy Track | 23.33 | 47.49 | 1:12.29 | 32.55 | 1:44.84 (1) |
| Dirt - 1-1/16 Miles - Fast Track | 23.45 | 47.92 | 1:13.06 | 31.89 | 1:44.95 (1) |
| Dirt - 1 Mile - Fast Track | 22.97 | 46.56 | 1:11.59 | 26.29 | 1:37.88 (15) |
| Dirt - 1 Mile - Wet Fast Track | 23.48 | 47.20 | 1:12.76 | 26.33 | 1:39.09 (1) |
| Dirt - 1 Mile - Good Track | 23.73 | 47.80 | 1:13.49 | 25.47 | 1:38.96 (1) |
| Dirt - 1 Mile - Muddy Track | 22.97 | 47.13 | 1:13.31 | 27.69 | 1:41.00 (2) |
| Dirt - 1 Mile - Sloppy Track | 23.02 | 47.01 | 1:12.36 | 26.18 | 1:38.54 (2) |
| Superfecta Finishers by Last Prep Race Finish | |||||||
| Southwest Stakes Finish | |||||||
| Finish Last Start | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Total | Total Payout | Avg Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Last Start | 17 | 7 (24) | 12 (36) | 14 (50) | 98 | $131.00 | $7.71 |
| 2nd Last Start | 3 | 4 (7) | 6 (13) | 3 (16) | 37 | $117.20 | $39.07 |
| 3rd Last Start | 1 | 5 (6) | 3 (9) | 1 (10) | 26 | $48.80 | $48.80 |
| 4th Last Start | 2 | 6 (8) | 2 (10) | 2 (12) | 24 | $49.80 | $24.90 |
| Worse than 4th Last Start | 0 | 1 (1) | 0 (1) | 3 (4) | 23 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| () reflects the running total within the top 4. A (5) in the 2nd column means 5 horses matching this criteria have finished within the exacta. | |||||||
| Superfecta Finishers by Last Prep Track | ||||
| Southwest Stakes Finish | ||||
| Last Prep Track | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aqu | 2 | 0 (2) | 0 (2) | 0 (2) |
| Bhp | 0 | 1 (1) | 0 (1) | 0 (1) |
| Cd | 3 | 2 (5) | 1 (6) | 1 (7) |
| Ded | 0 | 1 (1) | 2 (3) | 0 (3) |
| Fg | 4 | 4 (8) | 4 (12) | 3 (15) |
| Gp | 0 | 1 (1) | 1 (2) | 2 (4) |
| Haw | 0 | 0 (0) | 1 (1) | 0 (1) |
| Kee | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 1 (1) |
| Lad | 1 | 0 (1) | 0 (1) | 0 (1) |
| Op | 8 | 12 (20) | 12 (32) | 16 (48) |
| Sa | 4 | 2 (6) | 0 (6) | 0 (6) |
| Sun | 0 | 0 (0) | 1 (1) | 0 (1) |
| Tam | 0 | 0 (0) | 1 (1) | 0 (1) |
| Tp | 1 | 0 (1) | 0 (1) | 0 (1) |
| () reflects the running total within the top 4. A (5) in the 2nd column means 5 horses matching this criteria have finished within the exacta. | ||||
| Payout Stats - based on $2 bet | ||||||
| Win | Place | Show | Exacta | Trifecta | Superfecta | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | $106.00 | $33.20 | $24.20 | $978.40 | $6,147.60 | $20,481.20 |
| Avg | $15.08 | $7.63 | $3.73 | $140.88 | $1,105.81 | $7,382.57 |
| Low | $2.80 | $2.20 | $2.20 | $7.80 | $29.20 | $674.80 |
| Past Winners | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Southwest Stakes | Previous Race | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Year | Dist | PP | Name | Jockey | Trainer | Odds | Surface & Cond |
Running Style |
Win Lgths |
Par Time Rating |
Field Size |
Final Time |
Race Date | Race Track | Race | Par Time Rating |
Fin | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1-1/16 Miles | 1 | Tapiture | Santana | Asmussen | 6-1 | Dirt - Fast | On Lead | 4 | 97 | 12 | 1:44.95 | 30Nov13 | Cd | Ky Jky Clb Stks | 106 | 14 | ||||||||
| 2013 | 1-1/16 Miles | 6 | Super Ninety Nine | Bejarano | Baffert | Even* | Dirt - Sloppy | On Lead | 11 | 102 | 10 | 1:44.84 | 31Jan13 | Sa | N/A | --- | 1 | ||||||||
| 2012 | 1 Mile | 11 | Castaway | Bejarano | Baffert | 7-1 | Dirt - Fast | 1-2L | 3-1/2 | 99 | 11 | 1:38.09 | 21Jan12 | Sa | N/A | --- | 1 | ||||||||
| 2012 | 1 Mile | 9 | Secret Circle | Bejarano | Baffert | 3/5* | Dirt - Fast | 1-2L | 1/2 | 104 | 10 | 1:37.08 | 7Jan12 | Sa | Sham Stks | 104 | 21/2 | ||||||||
| 2011 | 1 Mile | 6 | Archarcharch | Court | Fires | 15-1 | Dirt - Fast | 5-10L | 1 | 98 | 11 | 1:38.23 | 17Jan11 | Op | 74 | 413 | |||||||||
| 2010 | 1 Mile | 9 | Conveyance | Garcia | Baffert | 9/5* | Dirt - Fast | On Lead | 1/2 | 105 | 10 | 1:36.94 | 16Jan10 | Sa | N/A | --- | 1 | ||||||||
| 2009 | 1 Mile | 5 | Old Fashioned | Dominguez | Jones | 2/5* | Dirt - Fast | 1-2L | 3 | 102 | 11 | 1:37.41 | 29Nov08 | Aqu | Remsen Stks | 104 | 17 | ||||||||
| 2008 | 1 Mile | 8 | Denis of Cork | Albarado | Carroll | 5-1 | Dirt - Fast | 15+L | 2 | 100 | 11 | 1:37.89 | 19Jan08 | Fg | N/A | --- | 1 | ||||||||
| 2007 | 1 Mile | 4 | Teuflesberg | Elliott | Sanders | 23-1 | Dirt - Fast | On Lead | 1-1/2 | 98 | 9 | 1:38.20 | 13Jan07 | Fg | Lecomte Stks | 94 | 38-1/2 | ||||||||
| 2006 | 1 Mile | 3 | Lawyer Ron | McKee | Holthus | 2/5* | Dirt - Fast | On Lead | 1/2 | 89 | 10 | 1:40.00 | 14Jan06 | Lad | Risen Star Stks | 105 | 18 | ||||||||
| 2005 | 1 Mile | 3 | Greater Good | McKee | Holthus | 2/5* | Dirt - Wet Fast | 10-15L | 1/2 | 100 | 7 | 1:39.09 | 27Nov04 | Cd | Ky Jky Clb Stks | 98 | 11-1/2 | ||||||||
| 2004 | 1 Mile | 6 | Smarty Jones | Elliott | Servis | 2/5* | Dirt - Fast | 1-2L | 1/2 | 102 | 9 | 1:37.57 | 3Jan04 | Aqu | N/A | --- | 1 | ||||||||
| 2003 | 1 Mile | 3 | Great Notion | Thompson | Miller | 3-1 | Dirt - Good | On Lead | 9 | 107 | 7 | 1:38.96 | 4Jan03 | Tp | N/A | --- | 2 | ||||||||
| 2002 | 1 Mile | 7 | Paloma Parilla | Lopez | Robideaux | 8-1 | Dirt - Muddy | 1-2L | 0 | 97 | 8 | 1:41.70 | 2Feb02 | Op | N/A | --- | 1 | ||||||||
| 2002 | 1 Mile | 7 | Private Emblem | Meche | Asmussen | 4-1 | Dirt - Muddy | 5-10L | 1/2 | 104 | 8 | 1:40.29 | 4Jan02 | Fg | N/A | --- | 1 | ||||||||
| 2001 | 1 Mile | 1 | Son of Rocket | Thompson | Holthus | 4-1 | Dirt - Sloppy | On Lead | 2 | 101 | 8 | 1:38.34 | 10Feb01 | Op | N/A | --- | 1 | ||||||||
| 2000 | 1 Mile | 8 | Afternoon Affair | Judice | Holthus | 4-1 | Dirt - Fast | 2-5L | 0 | 104 | 8 | 1:37.18 | 18Feb00 | Op | N/A | --- | 1 | ||||||||
| 1999 | 1 Mile | 8 | Jim'smrtee | Hightower | Milliron | 52-1 | Dirt - Fast | 1-2L | 1/2 | 92 | 9 | 1:39.52 | 6Feb99 | Op | N/A | --- | 2 | ||||||||
| 1998 | 1 Mile | 10 | Hot Wells | Borel | Amoss | 8-1 | Dirt - Fast | 10-15L | 0 | 96 | 11 | 1:38.69 | 31Jan98 | Fg | Lecomte Stks | 101 | 42 | ||||||||
| 1997 | 1 Mile | 6 | Smoke Glacken | Perret | Carroll | 3/5* | Dirt - Sloppy | On Lead | 8 | 99 | 8 | 1:38.73 | 8Feb97 | Op | N/A | --- | 1 | ||||||||
| 1996 | 1 Mile | 9 | Ide | Perret | Vestal | 2/5* | Dirt - Fast | 5-10L | 0 | 100 | 9 | 1:37.81 | 25Nov95 | Cd | Ky Jky Clb Stks | 102 | 11/2 | ||||||||
| 1995 | 1 Mile | 3 | Mystery Storm | Gonzalez | Robideaux | 3/5* | Dirt - Fast | On Lead | 1 | 106 | 6 | 1:36.63 | 19Feb95 | Op | N/A | --- | 1 | ||||||||
| 1994 | 1 Mile | 4 | Southern Rhythm | Gomez | Keefer | 5-1 | Dirt - Fast | 10-15L | 2-1/2 | 105 | 6 | 1:36.95 | 19Feb94 | Op | N/A | --- | 1 | ||||||||
| - An * in the odds column denotes post time favorite. - N/A - Not Available. Meaning that race was not a major Triple Crown prep race and data from that race is not in our system. - For more information about our par time rating please see the last page. - A 0 for Win or Beaten Lengths means the margin was less than 1/2 of a length. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
No comments:
Post a Comment