2013 Breeders' Cup Friday Selections

Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
We've produced a stats guide for 7 of the top Breeders' Cup races.  The guide includes 20 years (were applicable) of stats for post position, winners by running style, post time favorite stats, Superfecta finishers by last prep track, Superfecta finishers by previous race finish, payout stats, average running times, past winners list including fractional times, top jockeys and trainers for each of the above races.

You can view or print the stats guide here:    2013 Breeders' Cup Stats Guide


Friday Selections

Updated for Scratches at 3:43pm EST.
 
I always give 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is always my winner.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race.  Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.  Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race.  Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets


Race 6 - Breeder's Cup Marathon G2 - Action
A - #10 Worldly (6-1) - Have heard good things regarding his works, distance question
B - #7 London Bridge (8-1) - As trained well over the dirt and can go distance, first dirt try
C - #6 Indian Jones (5-1) - has trained well
D - #8 Blueskiesnrainbows (6-1) - likes to run up front, how far will he fade is the question
E - #4 Ever Rider (7/2) - Though he can get the distance, this horse appears to be an underlay

Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#3 Commander (6-1) - Another front runner who may not fade out of the exotics

Multi-Race Horses-
#10 Worldly
#7 London Bridge
#6 Indian Jones

Race Notes-
I'd like to say I have as much confidence in Worldly as I did in Calidoscopio last year, but I don't.  The clockers' like him, but past him this race is wide open.

Suggested Plays:
Small Win bet on #10 Worldly



Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile G1 - Play
A - #4 Brujo de Olleros (8-1) - has been working well, on paper appears one to beat off last out
B - #5 Fed Biz (6-1) - is 3-5 at distance and has been working well
C - #12 Goldencents (4-1) - would love this horse here if he wasn't hung so wide and as our stats guide point out that is bad on this track configuration
D - #8 Holy Lute (20-1) - is a bomb that could really juice the Trifecta or Superfecta
E - #11 Pants on Fire (6-1)

Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#3 Hyman Book (15-1) - should get some pace and will be close in his last start
#10 Verrazano (3-1) - a very loose favorite just feels a little up against it here and will be wide into the first turn

Multi-Race Horses-
#4 Brujo de Olleros
#5 Fed Biz
#12 Goldencents

Race Notes-
I think this race sets up nicely for Brujo de Olleros and Fed Biz.  Goldencents can win, but he'll have work at serious trip from the far outside post, but I would definitely use him in my exotic bets.  Do not take a short price on Verrazano, while he is capable our stats guide pointed out he has his back against the wall from a couple of angles.

Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 4/5,12/5,12 = $1
$0.50 - 4/5,12/5,12,8,11,10,3,2 = $3
$0.50 - 4/5,12,8,11,10,3,2/5,12 = $3
$0.50 - 5,12/4/5,12,8,11,10,3,2 = $3
- OR -
$1 - 4/5,12,8,11,3,10,2 = $7
$1 - 5,2/4 = $2


Race 10 - Breeder's Cup Distaff G1 - Play
A - #4 Royal Delta (8/5) - Smith said she just seemed a little short in her last race, she has trained well to this spot and it's hard to pick against her when you hear that.  She can sit or go and Smith is a smart jockey in that game.
B - #5 Beholder (5/2) - workouts have been great and I suspect she'll go early, it's just a matter of who else pushes her and can she hold off Royal Delta
C - #6 Princess of Sylmar (9/5) - ran several great races this summer, but Royal Delta may have been short in her last out and you know Mott was pointing for this race.  Pace will help.
D - #3 Close Hatches (6-1) - has been working well, don't see a win, but an exotics finish would juice this up if something went wrong for the above Trio
E - #2 Authenticity (8-1) - is in good form

Multi-Race Horses-
#4 Royal Delta
#5 Beholder

Race Notes-
I think it will go to either Royal Delta or Beholder, I was really impressed with Princess of Sylmar's races this summer, but the plan was not to run her in this race.  Her connections only recently changed their minds and decided to enter.  On the flip side of that, maybe she is doing so well they decided to take another shot.  Top 3 appear much the best.

Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 4 /5,6/5,6 = $1
$0.50 - 4/5,6/5,6,3,2,1 = $4
$0.50 - 4/3,2/5,6 = $2
$0.50 - 5,6/4/5,6,3,2 = $3