Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
We've produced a stats guide for 7 of the top Breeders' Cup races. The
guide includes 20 years (were applicable) of stats for post position,
winners by running style, post time favorite stats, Superfecta finishers
by last prep track, Superfecta finishers by previous race finish,
payout stats, average running times, past winners list including
fractional times, top jockeys and trainers for each of the above races.
The guide includes 5 races on the Saturday Breeders' Cup card.
You can view or print the stats guide here: 2013 Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
Saturday Selections
Not Updated for Scratches.
I
always give 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic
bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is
always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 5 - Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Turf G1 - Play
A - #1 Dank (5/2) - 5/2 would be a steal, seems very much the best on paper and from workout reports
B - #6 Marketing Mix (7/2) - good beyers, always runs well
C - #4 Alterite (10-1) - grade 1 winner, beyers fit, price
D - #3 Tiz Flirtatious (7/2) - another one whose beyers fit and always runs wel
E - #2 Romantica (6-1) - this Euro shipper has won a group 1 and is 3 of 4 in the win column at this distance
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#7 Laughing (8-1) - may scratch
#10 Kitten's Dumplings (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
1,6
Race Notes-
Dank should run these off their feet and I'll single her in my play.
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 1/6,4,3,2,7/6,4,3,2,7 = $8
Race 6 - Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Sprint G1 - Play
A - #8 Dance to Bristol (5-1) - has been great this year while stringing several wins together
B - #5 Teddy's Promise (6-1) - likes to run up front and beyers fit
C - #11 Groupie Doll (5/2) - may not be as sharp as last year
D - #4 Dance Card (8-1) - should be up close to the lead
E - #7 Summer Applause (12-1) - cutting back, but that may be an advantage at 7f
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#9 Judy the Beauty (6-1)
#2 Book Review (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
8,5,11
Race Notes-
It's obvious by the ML odds that this race is up for grabs. If Groupie Doll runs her A race then she wins, otherwise I think it sets up well for Dance to Bristol or Teddy's Promise. The track has been speed favoring, so that may come into play here.
Suggested Plays:
$0.10 - 8,5,11/8,5,11/8,5,11,4,7/8,5,11,4,7,9,2 = $7.20
$0.10 - 8,5,11/8,5,11,4,7/8,5,11/8,5,11,4,7,9,2 = $7.20
Race 7 - Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Sprint G1 - Action
A - #14 Unbridled's Note (8-1) - 3rd by 1/2 length last year, working well and may be ready to fire big
B - #5 Caracortado (8-1) - I've always liked this horse, and he ran good off the layoff, improvement puts him in the mix
C - #13 Dimension (12-1) - drawn well and is cutting back in distance
D - #12 Mizdirection (4-1) - won this last year, but is not working as well
E - #4 Reneesgotzip (5-1) - has not run on the turf since this race last year, but she ran good in this last year
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
Multi-Race Horses-
14,5,13
Race Notes-
Lots of options in here.
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile G1 - Action
A - #6 Tap It Rich (6-1) - working well, but is green with only one race, but Smith gives confidence
B - #10 We Miss Artie (8-1) - working well and is a price
C - #3 Mexikoma (12-1) - will need to prove he can run at this level, but beyers fit
D - #13 Havana (5/2) - Champagne winner is drawn wide
E - #12 Diamond Bachelor (12-1) - another price, but the track is playing to his liking
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#14 Strong Mandate (6-1) - will be really wide leaving the gate
Multi-Race Horses-
6,10,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - Breeder's Cup Turf G1 - Play
A - #12 Real Solution (12-1) - working well and live at a big price, post shouldn't be a problem with distance
B - #7 The Fugue (3-1) - this mare is trying the boys this year, good runner last year in the F&M Turf, good shot
C - #4 Little Mike (6-1) - as much as I hate to say it, he could steal it again on the lead
D - #8 Point of Entry (4-1) - good horse, but layoff leaves a fitness question, works have been just ok
E - #9 Indy Point (9/2) - beyers fit and can run the distance
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#11 Magician
Multi-Race Horses-
12,7,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.10 - 12,7/12,7/4,8,9/4,8,9,11 = $1.80
$0.10 - 12,7/4,8,9/12,7/4,8,9,1 = $1.80
$0.10 - 12,7/4,8,9/4,8,9,11/12,7 = $1.80
$0.10 - 4,8,9/12,7/12,7/4,8,9,11 = $1.80
$0.10 - 4,8,9/12,7/4,8,9,11/12,7 = $1.80
Race 10 - Breeder's Cup Sprint G1 - Action+
A - #9 Secret Circle (4-1) - Ran well in his first race off the layoff, drawn well for his style
B - #7 Private Zone (3-1) - drawn well, beyers are good, track is playing to style
C - #11 Trinniberg (8-1) - I'm going to give this guy a decent chance to repeat with the track playing to his style and reports are he is looking better and better in the morning. If he recovers his form - watch out!
D - #8 Fast Bullet (6-1) - maybe the fastest of this bunch, IF he fires, track bias should help
E - #3 Gentlemen's Bet (8-1) - beyers fit, likes to be upfront
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#1 Justin Phillip (4-1)
#6 Bahamian Squall (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
9,7,11,8
Race Notes-
The tragic incident with Points Off the Bench left this race more wide open.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 9/7,11,8,3,1 = $5
$1 - 7,11/9 = $2
Race 11 - Breeder's Cup Turf Mile G1 - Play
A - #8 Wise Dan (Even) - drawn well for style, will win if he fires
B - #5 Olympic Glory (4-1) - Euro trying to take down the champ, is a Group 1 winner
C - #3 Silver Max (4-1) - beat Wise Dan last out on synthetic, but today is a different game, will be on the lead
D - #1 No Jet Lag (8-1)
E - #4 Obviously (10-1)
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#10 Za Approval (15-1) - i can't believe there is a turf race is Za Approval is outside of my top 5
Multi-Race Horses-
8,5,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.10 - 8/5,3/5,3,1,4/5,3,1,4,6,10,7 = $3
$0.10 - 8/5,3/5,3,1,4,6,10,7/5,3,1,4 = $3
$0.10 - 8/1,4/5,3/5,3,1,4,6,10,7 = $2
$0.10 - 5,3/8/5,3,1,4/5,3,1,4,6,10,7 = $3
Race 12 - Breeder's Cup Classic - Action+
A - #9 Game On Dude (8/5) - on the lead or sitting just off the lead a 46 and change half mile would set up for him. I like that Smith is back on him which should help him get out of the gate.
B - #6 Mucho Macho Man (5-1) - he obviously likes Santa Anita, he'll need to get outside of horses, but Gary Stevens gives confidence
C - #8 Palace Malice (10-1) - working well, 3 yr old will need to step up, but could mix it up esp. if the pace is hot
D - #10 Will Take Charge (12-1) - drawn well for style, pace will help, closes strong
E - #4 Moreno (15-1) - has been working well and style may fit this speed favoring track with no kick back in his face.
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#2 Paynter (12-1) - has been working well, what a story book ending this would be if he won
#5 Declaration of War (10-1) - European trying to crash this party, is capable, but kick back is a question
Multi-Race Horses-
9,6,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 9,6/9,6 = $4
$1 - 9/8,10,4,2 = $4
$1 8,10/9 = $2
Saturday, November 2, 2013
Friday, November 1, 2013
2013 Breeders' Cup Friday Selections
Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
We've produced a stats guide for 7 of the top Breeders' Cup races. The guide includes 20 years (were applicable) of stats for post position, winners by running style, post time favorite stats, Superfecta finishers by last prep track, Superfecta finishers by previous race finish, payout stats, average running times, past winners list including fractional times, top jockeys and trainers for each of the above races.
You can view or print the stats guide here: 2013 Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
Friday Selections
Updated for Scratches at 3:43pm EST.
I always give 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 6 - Breeder's Cup Marathon G2 - Action
A - #10 Worldly (6-1) - Have heard good things regarding his works, distance question
B - #7 London Bridge (8-1) - As trained well over the dirt and can go distance, first dirt try
C - #6 Indian Jones (5-1) - has trained well
D - #8 Blueskiesnrainbows (6-1) - likes to run up front, how far will he fade is the question
E - #4 Ever Rider (7/2) - Though he can get the distance, this horse appears to be an underlay
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#3 Commander (6-1) - Another front runner who may not fade out of the exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
#10 Worldly
#7 London Bridge
#6 Indian Jones
Race Notes-
I'd like to say I have as much confidence in Worldly as I did in Calidoscopio last year, but I don't. The clockers' like him, but past him this race is wide open.
Suggested Plays:
Small Win bet on #10 Worldly
Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile G1 - Play
A - #4 Brujo de Olleros (8-1) - has been working well, on paper appears one to beat off last out
B - #5 Fed Biz (6-1) - is 3-5 at distance and has been working well
C - #12 Goldencents (4-1) - would love this horse here if he wasn't hung so wide and as our stats guide point out that is bad on this track configuration
D - #8 Holy Lute (20-1) - is a bomb that could really juice the Trifecta or Superfecta
E - #11 Pants on Fire (6-1)
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#3 Hyman Book (15-1) - should get some pace and will be close in his last start
#10 Verrazano (3-1) - a very loose favorite just feels a little up against it here and will be wide into the first turn
Multi-Race Horses-
#4 Brujo de Olleros
#5 Fed Biz
#12 Goldencents
Race Notes-
I think this race sets up nicely for Brujo de Olleros and Fed Biz. Goldencents can win, but he'll have work at serious trip from the far outside post, but I would definitely use him in my exotic bets. Do not take a short price on Verrazano, while he is capable our stats guide pointed out he has his back against the wall from a couple of angles.
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 4/5,12/5,12 = $1
$0.50 - 4/5,12/5,12,8,11,10,3,2 = $3
$0.50 - 4/5,12,8,11,10,3,2/5,12 = $3
$0.50 - 5,12/4/5,12,8,11,10,3,2 = $3
- OR -
$1 - 4/5,12,8,11,3,10,2 = $7
$1 - 5,2/4 = $2
Race 10 - Breeder's Cup Distaff G1 - Play
A - #4 Royal Delta (8/5) - Smith said she just seemed a little short in her last race, she has trained well to this spot and it's hard to pick against her when you hear that. She can sit or go and Smith is a smart jockey in that game.
B - #5 Beholder (5/2) - workouts have been great and I suspect she'll go early, it's just a matter of who else pushes her and can she hold off Royal Delta
C - #6 Princess of Sylmar (9/5) - ran several great races this summer, but Royal Delta may have been short in her last out and you know Mott was pointing for this race. Pace will help.
D - #3 Close Hatches (6-1) - has been working well, don't see a win, but an exotics finish would juice this up if something went wrong for the above Trio
E - #2 Authenticity (8-1) - is in good form
Multi-Race Horses-
#4 Royal Delta
#5 Beholder
Race Notes-
I think it will go to either Royal Delta or Beholder, I was really impressed with Princess of Sylmar's races this summer, but the plan was not to run her in this race. Her connections only recently changed their minds and decided to enter. On the flip side of that, maybe she is doing so well they decided to take another shot. Top 3 appear much the best.
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 4 /5,6/5,6 = $1
$0.50 - 4/5,6/5,6,3,2,1 = $4
$0.50 - 4/3,2/5,6 = $2
$0.50 - 5,6/4/5,6,3,2 = $3
We've produced a stats guide for 7 of the top Breeders' Cup races. The guide includes 20 years (were applicable) of stats for post position, winners by running style, post time favorite stats, Superfecta finishers by last prep track, Superfecta finishers by previous race finish, payout stats, average running times, past winners list including fractional times, top jockeys and trainers for each of the above races.
You can view or print the stats guide here: 2013 Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
Friday Selections
Updated for Scratches at 3:43pm EST.
I always give 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 6 - Breeder's Cup Marathon G2 - Action
A - #10 Worldly (6-1) - Have heard good things regarding his works, distance question
B - #7 London Bridge (8-1) - As trained well over the dirt and can go distance, first dirt try
C - #6 Indian Jones (5-1) - has trained well
D - #8 Blueskiesnrainbows (6-1) - likes to run up front, how far will he fade is the question
E - #4 Ever Rider (7/2) - Though he can get the distance, this horse appears to be an underlay
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#3 Commander (6-1) - Another front runner who may not fade out of the exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
#10 Worldly
#7 London Bridge
#6 Indian Jones
Race Notes-
I'd like to say I have as much confidence in Worldly as I did in Calidoscopio last year, but I don't. The clockers' like him, but past him this race is wide open.
Suggested Plays:
Small Win bet on #10 Worldly
Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile G1 - Play
A - #4 Brujo de Olleros (8-1) - has been working well, on paper appears one to beat off last out
B - #5 Fed Biz (6-1) - is 3-5 at distance and has been working well
C - #12 Goldencents (4-1) - would love this horse here if he wasn't hung so wide and as our stats guide point out that is bad on this track configuration
D - #8 Holy Lute (20-1) - is a bomb that could really juice the Trifecta or Superfecta
E - #11 Pants on Fire (6-1)
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#3 Hyman Book (15-1) - should get some pace and will be close in his last start
#10 Verrazano (3-1) - a very loose favorite just feels a little up against it here and will be wide into the first turn
Multi-Race Horses-
#4 Brujo de Olleros
#5 Fed Biz
#12 Goldencents
Race Notes-
I think this race sets up nicely for Brujo de Olleros and Fed Biz. Goldencents can win, but he'll have work at serious trip from the far outside post, but I would definitely use him in my exotic bets. Do not take a short price on Verrazano, while he is capable our stats guide pointed out he has his back against the wall from a couple of angles.
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 4/5,12/5,12 = $1
$0.50 - 4/5,12/5,12,8,11,10,3,2 = $3
$0.50 - 4/5,12,8,11,10,3,2/5,12 = $3
$0.50 - 5,12/4/5,12,8,11,10,3,2 = $3
- OR -
$1 - 4/5,12,8,11,3,10,2 = $7
$1 - 5,2/4 = $2
Race 10 - Breeder's Cup Distaff G1 - Play
A - #4 Royal Delta (8/5) - Smith said she just seemed a little short in her last race, she has trained well to this spot and it's hard to pick against her when you hear that. She can sit or go and Smith is a smart jockey in that game.
B - #5 Beholder (5/2) - workouts have been great and I suspect she'll go early, it's just a matter of who else pushes her and can she hold off Royal Delta
C - #6 Princess of Sylmar (9/5) - ran several great races this summer, but Royal Delta may have been short in her last out and you know Mott was pointing for this race. Pace will help.
D - #3 Close Hatches (6-1) - has been working well, don't see a win, but an exotics finish would juice this up if something went wrong for the above Trio
E - #2 Authenticity (8-1) - is in good form
Multi-Race Horses-
#4 Royal Delta
#5 Beholder
Race Notes-
I think it will go to either Royal Delta or Beholder, I was really impressed with Princess of Sylmar's races this summer, but the plan was not to run her in this race. Her connections only recently changed their minds and decided to enter. On the flip side of that, maybe she is doing so well they decided to take another shot. Top 3 appear much the best.
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 4 /5,6/5,6 = $1
$0.50 - 4/5,6/5,6,3,2,1 = $4
$0.50 - 4/3,2/5,6 = $2
$0.50 - 5,6/4/5,6,3,2 = $3
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