I'm still working on some of the other races on the card, but I wanted to go ahead and get my derby picks up. I plan on posting a few picks for Pimlico as well...good luck!
Race 11 - 1-1/4mi Kentucky Derby
Be sure to watch how the track is playing, Friday it seemed to play a little speed favoring.
1 - #15 Gemologist - good post, figures to get first run, esp if Union Rags and Bodemeister have trouble, likes CD track
2 - #6 Bodemeister - could very well prove to be the best horse in race, last work was great. I do worry about that last Beyer, he earned in on an easy lead, and horses if run big #'s like that rarely repeat if challenged. Scratch that # and it puts him with in striking range of several horses.
3 - #4 Union Rags - working great, lots of trouble last out, was the only horse gaining late in that race
4 - #10 Daddy Nose Best - has impressed everyone who has seen him work lately, improving Beyer #'s, style could help
5 - #11 Alpha - bred to run a long ways, seems to be working great, but did miss some training, seems much tighter now
6 - #16 El Padrio - wonder how the FL Derby would have ended if his jockey had gone after TCI on 2nd turn instead of playing games
Horses to possibly include on bottom of Trifecta:
#3 Take Charge Indy - didn't really like FL Derby, but has been training well and if Borel gets room on the rail - that's a big if though
#18 Sabercat - Training and looking good, was close for 2nd in AR Derby, though beaten 9-3/4 by Bodemeister
#8 Creative Cause - This horse would be in my top 5, but I don't like that he missed 2 days at the track after his workout, plus he tends to get a little distracted in the lane, but if he runs his best he is a serious contender.
#19 I'll Have Another - good horse, but I don't really like the post
Horses to include on bottom of Superfecta or for value in other plays:
#12 Perspective - training extremely well
#17 Done Talking - if there is a pace melt down, this guy will be coming late and Russell is a great jockey, though I don't think he has a chance to win
Horses you may wonder why I didn't include:
#14 Hansen - worried he will not get the distance and he seemed really rank in his last work, suggesting he could get in a speed duel. Even if he rates, I still don't know if he can get the distance.
#5 Dullahan - this is a very nice horse, but I'm not sure he'll love the surface and he'll have to clear a LOT of traffic with his style, Desormeaux helps, but still have doubts. Looking forward to betting him this summer at Colonial Downs if Romans brings him there.
Be sure to watch how the track is playing, Friday it seemed to play a little speed favoring.
1 - #15 Gemologist - good post, figures to get first run, esp if Union Rags and Bodemeister have trouble, likes CD track
2 - #6 Bodemeister - could very well prove to be the best horse in race, last work was great. I do worry about that last Beyer, he earned in on an easy lead, and horses if run big #'s like that rarely repeat if challenged. Scratch that # and it puts him with in striking range of several horses.
3 - #4 Union Rags - working great, lots of trouble last out, was the only horse gaining late in that race
4 - #10 Daddy Nose Best - has impressed everyone who has seen him work lately, improving Beyer #'s, style could help
5 - #11 Alpha - bred to run a long ways, seems to be working great, but did miss some training, seems much tighter now
6 - #16 El Padrio - wonder how the FL Derby would have ended if his jockey had gone after TCI on 2nd turn instead of playing games
Horses to possibly include on bottom of Trifecta:
#3 Take Charge Indy - didn't really like FL Derby, but has been training well and if Borel gets room on the rail - that's a big if though
#18 Sabercat - Training and looking good, was close for 2nd in AR Derby, though beaten 9-3/4 by Bodemeister
#8 Creative Cause - This horse would be in my top 5, but I don't like that he missed 2 days at the track after his workout, plus he tends to get a little distracted in the lane, but if he runs his best he is a serious contender.
#19 I'll Have Another - good horse, but I don't really like the post
Horses to include on bottom of Superfecta or for value in other plays:
#12 Perspective - training extremely well
#17 Done Talking - if there is a pace melt down, this guy will be coming late and Russell is a great jockey, though I don't think he has a chance to win
Horses you may wonder why I didn't include:
#14 Hansen - worried he will not get the distance and he seemed really rank in his last work, suggesting he could get in a speed duel. Even if he rates, I still don't know if he can get the distance.
#5 Dullahan - this is a very nice horse, but I'm not sure he'll love the surface and he'll have to clear a LOT of traffic with his style, Desormeaux helps, but still have doubts. Looking forward to betting him this summer at Colonial Downs if Romans brings him there.
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