Post Preakness & Triple Crown Thoughts...

What a great two days of racing at Pimlico!  I was there both days and can't say enough about the racing on both cards Friday and Saturday.   But for now let's focus on the Preakness and the hope of a Triple Crown.  First I want to thank the connections of Creative Cause, Bodemeister and I'll Have Another for bringing their horses to Baltimore to run in the Preakness.  They certainly brought the show and gave us what we wanted to see, but unfortunately there can only be one winner.  I told my wife on the way home I've been in the Dean Dome when UNC beat Duke on a last second shot, but the roar that came from the crowd at Pimlico when I'll Have Another and Bodemeister distinguished themselves down the stretch and finally I'll Have Another gamely put his head in front at the wire was much louder.  And what was really great was when they showed the replay on the screen the crowd let out that same deafening cheer. 

To analyze the Preakness, let's take a look at the top three finishers:

3rd - Creative Cause

Creative Cause is won of those horses I am going to love to use in my exotics going forward.  He is very consistent and always finishes well.  Though he did not go on down the stretch with Bodemeister and I'll Have Another in the Preakness, he still finished 3 lengths in front of of the 4th place finisher.  And let's not forget, based on time alone he would have finished in the top finisher if not won the Pimlico Special on Friday!  The Pimlico Special was for older horse, and some good ones at that!  You have to wonder how much the cross continent travel took out of him and he still trounced the rest of the field.  Look for this horse to move forward and be a major player once he has been freshened.

2nd - Bodemeister

Bodemeister ran his race in the Preakness.  And as in the Derby he proved he is head and shoulders above the 3yr old crop...all except I'll Have Another.  Having things his own way in the Preakness, Bodemeister seemed very likely the winner coming off the 2nd turn at Pimlico.  You have to wonder how much the hard races he ran in the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby took out of him, but he did not fold in the stretch, he made I'll Have Another earn it when no other horse was even close.  Once this horse is fresh again...lookout!  Remember, if you take I'll Have Another out, Bodemeister would be heading to the Belmont to try for the triple crown!

1st - I'll Have Another

Wow!  This horse closed into a pace where Bodemeister had things his own way.  No other horse was moving forward and the top 2 finishers cleared the field by 9 lengths.  I'll Have Another show just how game he is running down Bodemeister to win by a neck, that is not an easy thing to do, especially against a horse like Bodemeister.  I'm not sure there is another horse in training right now that could have down that!  This horse is something special and his trainer Doug O'Neil needs to send his jockey to Belmont right now to start riding to learn how to ride at Belmont - the longest race track in America.  What is most impressive about this young jockey is he was competing with a Hall of Fame jockey, Mike Smith, who riding Bodemeister.  There is no better jockey when it comes in finishing than Mike Smith, that was proven on Zenyatta and in last years BC Classic with Drosselmeyer.  But I'll Have Another's jockey set him down to run and kept to task when they pulled along side Smith and Bodemeister.  Hats off to this team for the stretch drive in the Preakness!

My Prediction -

I'll Have Another wins the Belmont and the first Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978.  He has the right style, a patient jockey and is bred for the distance.

Post Kentucky Derby & Early Preakness Thoughts...

I'll Have Another was certainly one of about 10 horses who had a legitimate shot to win the Kentucky Derby, though I regret to say I didn't pick him in my first flight of horses.  He got a great trip and that is always a huge part of how the Kentucky Derby is won.  Here are some of my first thoughts going forward:

Bodemeister - He set some seriously fast fractions and down the backstretch I told my wife he was going to fade badly...that also didn't happen.  He turned into the stretch well ahead of the pack and though he tired, he held on gamely for 2nd.  To put into perspective how game he was let's take a look at where the first 8 finishers in the derby were at the 1/2 mile call:

I'll Have Another - 7th - 8 lengths off - finished 1st
Dullahan - 11th - 12-1/2 lengths off - finished 3rd
Went the Day Well - 17th - 18-1/2 lengths off - finished 4th
Creative Cause - 10th - 12 lengths off - finished 5th
Liasion - 8th - 10-1/2 lengths off - finished 6th
Union Rags - 18th - 19-1/2 lengths off - finished 7th
Rousing Sermon - 14th - 15 lengths off - finished 8th


The point is self explanatory, nobody who finished in the top 8 was closer than 8 lengths to Bodemeister at the 1/2 mile call!  Most of the other speed faded badly.  Before the Derby was run I thought Bodemeister would be a good Preakness horse for the way that track plays, but now I'm headed to Baltimore ready to bet him until my pockets are empty!


Union Rags - I couldn't have dreamed up a worse trip for Union Rags, it looked like a train wreck from the start.  As soon as they broke I said, "Well, Union Rags just lost!".  I don't know what Leparoux could have done different, other than to hurry him out of the gate a little faster.   But it is worth noting in that he stayed in trouble well into the 2nd turn and he did close well down the lane.  I don't know that he can beat Bodemeister in the Preakness, but with a decent trip I think he can hold his own.  After back to back troubled trips, I'm just glad Leparoux is not an air traffic controller!


Creative Cause - For all the talk about him missing 2 days at the track after his workout, I thought Creative Cause gave a good showing of himself finishing 5th beaten just 3 lengths.  He was 4 wide on the 2nd turn, but he did seem to flatten late when Went the Day Well passed him.  Look for this horse to be a contender in future races.


Dullahan - Handled the dirt just fine I'd say!  He'll be a contender in Baltimore, if Romans takes him there, but I don't see him getting the best of Bodemeister either.  Also, look for Dullahan to switch back to turf later in the summer, just like Romans did with Paddy O'Prado.


Hansen - Well this was one thing I was right about, he couldn't carry the speed 1-1/4 miles.  I still don't think he'll get the best of Bodemeister in the Preakness.  But, look for him to be a solid contender in races up to 1-1/16 miles.


I'll Have Another - Had a great trip and closed well down the stretch.  He certainly had some pace help in the Derby, but he is a game horse as he showed in the Santa Anita Derby.  Look for him to be a contender in the Preakness, but I don't think he will get to Bodemeister.


Preakness Thoughts:
The track has played to speed this year.  Extreme on some days and not quite so strong on others.  This will aid horses like Bodemeister, Hansen and Union Rags.  I think horses will need to sit close to win there.  

As soon as the Kentucky Derby was over someone asked me, "Will I'll Have Another win the Triple Crown?"  My answer was simply, "No".  Mostly because I believe Bodemeister is an overwhelming threat in the Preakness and Union Rags is due a good trip at some point.

Churchill Downs 5-5-2012 - Kentucky Derby Day Selections

Good Luck!

Race 1 - 1-1/16 OCSeems a little wide open to me.
1 - #3 Afford
2 - #1 Point Taken
3 - #2 Atigun - Winner
4 - #4 Little Willy
5 - #5 Politicallycorrect - Second
 

Race 6 - 5f Twin Spires Turf Sprint - Turf
1 - #7 Speight the Halo - looking to beat Bridgetown on his 1st out 2012 and catch a price, but need a good break
2 - #4 Bridgetown - class of race, but 1st out 2012 - Second
3 - #10 Great Mills - fast horse, likes distance, 50% win at distance, 6-8 in the money at distance
4 - #2 Great Attack - plenty of speed and bred to for the distance - Winner
5 - #8 Spinning Move
6 - #11 Chamberlain Bridge

Race 7 - 7f Churchill Downs G2
1 - #6 Amazombie - very much the class and speed of the race, plus Mike Smith always scares me.  Has had trouble carrying speed 7 furlongs. - Second
2 - #1 Smiling Tiger - fast, but 1st out 2012
3 - #4 Shackleford - lots of class, but is he as fast as Amazombie?  Could grab the lead if speed fails and we know he is stubborn in the stretch! - Winner
4 - #7 Gantry - Improving in 2012.  Outclassed here, but seems to be as fast as others. Could grab piece of Tri or Ex.
5 - #2 Alma d'Oro - a real wild card, with some trouble recently, but those have been in route races.

Race 11 - 1-1/4mi Kentucky Derby G1  
1 - #15 Gemologist - good post, figures to get first run, esp if Union Rags and Bodemeister have trouble, likes CD track
2 - #6 Bodemeister - could very well prove to be the best horse in race, last work was great.  I do worry about that last Beyer, he earned in on an easy lead, and horses if run big #'s like that rarely repeat if challenged.  Scratch that # and it puts him with in striking range of several horses.. - Second
3 - #4 Union Rags - working great, lots of trouble last out, was the only horse gaining late in that race
4 - #10 Daddy Nose Best - has impressed everyone who has seen him work lately, improving Beyer #'s, style could help
5 - #11 Alpha - bred to run a long ways, seems to be working great, but did miss some training, seems much tighter now
6 - #16 El Padrio - wonder how the FL Derby would have ended if his jockey had gone after TCI on 2nd turn instead of playing games

Horses to possibly include on bottom of Trifecta:
#3 Take Charge Indy - didn't really like FL Derby, but has been training well and if Borel gets room on the rail - that's a big if though
#18 Sabercat - Training and looking good, was close for 2nd in AR Derby, thought beaten 9-3/4 by Bodemeister
#8 Creative Cause - This horse would be in my top 5, but I don't like that he missed 2 days at the track after his workout, plus he tends to get a little distracted in the lane, but if he runs his best he is a serious contender.
#19 I'll Have Another - good horse, but I don't really like the post - Winner

Horses to include on bottom of Superfecta or for value in other plays:
#12 Perspective - training extremely well
#17 Done Talking - if there is a pace melt down, this guy will be coming late and Russell is a great jockey, though I don't think he has a chance to win

Horses you may wonder why I didn't include:
#14 Hansen - worried he will not get the distance and he seemed really rank in his last work, suggesting he could get in a speed duel.  Even if he rates, I still don't know if he can get the distance.
#5 Dullahan - this is a very nice horse, but I'm not sure he'll love the surface and he'll have to clear a LOT of traffic with his style, Desormeaux helps, but still have doubts.  Looking forward to betting him this summer at Colonial Downs if Romans brings him there.

Pimlico 5-5-2012 Selections

Race 2 - 6f Clm
1 - #3 Amadorable - Second
2 - #6 Who Plays Brahms - Winner
3 - #4 Vegas Wedding
4 - #5 Hidden Joy

Race 8 - 6f Alw
1 - #7 Majestic Samurai - from a speed figure standpoint he's a standout, but he earned those on the lead - Winner
2 - #1a Fixin the Books - was impressed by first out last time, although it was on the turf, trainer % and breeding suggest he'll handle it fine
3 - #5 Chickatari - class drop and shipping in from Prx
4 - #2x Kinginthecity - Scratched
5 - #1 Zaharias - Scratched


Race 10 - 1-1/16mi Stakes
1 - #1 My Adonis - very much the class of the race, worried about him shipping all over the place being the Ky Derby AE
2 - #2 Pretension - another class dropper, seems a step better than #3 from a class standpoint - Winner
3 - #3 Brimstone Island - good beyer's, but all wins have come on the lead and is a CT shipper.  Does like distance - Second
4 - #6 Respectful Ed - probably running for 4th
5- #5 Midnight Serenade - probably running for 4th

Churchill Downs 5-5-2012 - Kentucky Derby Day Selections

I'm still working on some of the other races on the card, but I wanted to go ahead and get my derby picks up. I plan on posting a few picks for Pimlico as well...good luck!

Race 11 - 1-1/4mi Kentucky Derby
Be sure to watch how the track is playing, Friday it seemed to play a little speed favoring.
 
1 - #15 Gemologist - good post, figures to get first run, esp if Union Rags and Bodemeister have trouble, likes CD track
2 - #6 Bodemeister - could very well prove to be the best horse in race, last work was great.  I do worry about that last Beyer, he earned in on an easy lead, and horses if run big #'s like that rarely repeat if challenged.  Scratch that # and it puts him with in striking range of several horses.
3 - #4 Union Rags - working great, lots of trouble last out, was the only horse gaining late in that race
4 - #10 Daddy Nose Best - has impressed everyone who has seen him work lately, improving Beyer #'s, style could help
5 - #11 Alpha - bred to run a long ways, seems to be working great, but did miss some training, seems much tighter now
6 - #16 El Padrio - wonder how the FL Derby would have ended if his jockey had gone after TCI on 2nd turn instead of playing games

Horses to possibly include on bottom of Trifecta:
#3 Take Charge Indy - didn't really like FL Derby, but has been training well and if Borel gets room on the rail - that's a big if though
#18 Sabercat - Training and looking good, was close for 2nd in AR Derby, though beaten 9-3/4 by Bodemeister
#8 Creative Cause - This horse would be in my top 5, but I don't like that he missed 2 days at the track after his workout, plus he tends to get a little distracted in the lane, but if he runs his best he is a serious contender.
#19 I'll Have Another - good horse, but I don't really like the post

Horses to include on bottom of Superfecta or for value in other plays:
#12 Perspective - training extremely well
#17 Done Talking - if there is a pace melt down, this guy will be coming late and Russell is a great jockey, though I don't think he has a chance to win

Horses you may wonder why I didn't include:
#14 Hansen - worried he will not get the distance and he seemed really rank in his last work, suggesting he could get in a speed duel.  Even if he rates, I still don't know if he can get the distance.
#5 Dullahan - this is a very nice horse, but I'm not sure he'll love the surface and he'll have to clear a LOT of traffic with his style, Desormeaux helps, but still have doubts.  Looking forward to betting him this summer at Colonial Downs if Romans brings him there.

Pimlico 5-4-2012 Selections

Race 1 - 6f MC
1 - #2 Ottauquechee - Showed early speed last out
2 - #6 Forest Imp - MSW to MC drop
3 - #5 Bluegrass Kopp
4 - #4 Special Salute
5 - #1 Clever Answer

Race 2 - 6f Claiming
1 - #2 Vows to Be Broken - Class drop, like Pim and distance, should have some early speed
2 - #6 Balto More - figures to get a good trip, good beyer #'s
3 - #3 Jango - May have best early speed, but is a shipper from CT
4 - #4 Lifasi - Class drop, like recent works
5 - #1 Cam's Rebel - has won at Pim and dist

Race 3 - 6f Claiming
1 - #7 Will's Afleet - Early speed, good beyer #'s, GP shipper, class drop
2 - #2 Chance and a Half - Trainer 1st claim 36%, should have some speed, good beyer #'s
3 - #4 Rock n' Bid - Early speed, like last work and trainer %
4 - #1 Patrol Leader - Likes Pimlico
5 - #3 Sir Silver Fox - Closes well, likes Pimlico

Race 6 - 6f Claiming
1 - #7 Zipatron - GP shipper, early speed, should forgive last outs due to trouble, good beyers, class drop, best in race
2 - #4 Mia's Angel - Class drop, good beyer #'s
3 - #3 The A. Train - Good beyer #'s, class drop winning angle for trainer
4 - #2 Big Code - Likes Pim
5 - #8 Big M J

Race 8 - 1-1/16mi MSW
1 - #3 Celtic Katie - Early speed last our, class drop, trouble in recent races, good works, finished well at distance
2 - #7 Smart Cash - good finishes going distance on dirt
3 - #2 Eulonia - sprinter stretching out, possible to get lead
4 - #6 Startsprednthenews
5 - #5 Baltimore Bianca

Race 9 - 6f Claiming
1 - #3 Schlossed - Early speed, Jamie Ness good trainer %, class drop, good beyer #'s
2 - #2 Carolyn's Moon - Likes Pim, trouble in recent outs, class drop, good beyer #'s
3 - #4 R U Smokin - Likes Pim & dist.  Horse has raced at Prx & Gp.
4 - #6 Bandidos Yanquis - Has beat better in 2012, likes Pim & dist
5 - #7 Macho Taste - Likes Pim & dist

Churchill Downs 5-4-2012 - Kentucky Oaks Day Selections

These are my selections for Kentucky Oaks day.  Also, I will be posting selections for some Pimlico on both Oaks and Derby day as well.  More to come...

Race 1 - 1 Mile MSW - lots of possibilities here.  Consider it a weak play, wouldn't spend more than a few bucks here.
1 - #6 - Wine Princess - Figures to get good trip.  Trainer 27% Turf to Dirt.
2 - #2 - Finallyareallady - May like dirt best.  may get easy lead.
3 - #1 - Holiday's Jewel - 1st out 2012.  Has had some trouble in recent starts.
4 - #3 - Ticket to Broadway
5 - #4 - Haylie Brae

Race 3 - 7f OC 75k
1 - #4 - Young and Lovely - Working like will show speed.
2 - #6 - Ice Cream Silence - May figure to inherit the lead, like post, should move forward
3 - #3 - Malibu Holiday
4 - #5 - Queen Teuta
5 - #7 - Delightful Magic

Race 6 - 1-1/16mi LaTroien G2
1 - #4 - Plum Pretty - seems the best on paper, needs to run same race as OP
2 - #6 - Absinthe Minded - easily 2nd best to Plum Pretty, always shows up
3 - #1 - Afleeting Lady - Like Churchill, training well, needs to move forward
4 - #5 - Juanita
5 - #2 - St. John's River

Race 7 - 7f Eight Belles G3
1 - #7 - Contested - Lots of early speed, her race to lose, could get easy lead
2 - #2 - Small Kitchen - Trouble last out, distance may suit better
3 - #3 - Good Deed - Figures to be near the lead
4 - #4 - Xunlei - Romans appears to have this one ready to run. Could get 1st run on leaders.5 - #6 - Livi Makenzie

Race 9 - 1-1/16mi Alysheba G2
1 - #4 - Mucho Macho Man - Has beat much better, ran 3rd in Derby here, looks great, have liked this horse since the Triple Crown last year.
2 - #3 - Fort Larned - Figures to pickup pieces of speed horses who fail
3 - #2 - Successful Dan - Due to improve, like Churchill
4 - #1 - Nates Mineshaft - Horse wins, but will not have easy lead5 - #7 - Apart - Could be another one to pickup pieces of fast pace

Race 11 - 1-1/8mi Kentucky Oaks G1
1 - #8 - Jemima's Pearl - Worked well with Bodemeister, style will help, was making up ground in late stretch in Fantasy
2 - #3 - Summer Applause - Style should help with lots of speed in race, was coming hard late in last out, like Gomez riding from off the pace (ie. Blind Luck)
3 - #2 - Grace Hall - Had an easy trip last out, but had an impressive kick.  Looks & is training great.  Is working forward.  Many think this is the horse to beat.
4 - #9 - Believe You Can - Like the 4/29 and 4/23 works, final 1/4 mile in 4/29 work was 23-3/5.  Probably under radar and can rate just off pace.
5 - #1 - On Fire Baby - Last 3f of 4/27 7f work was 36-3/5, looks to be doing great, did miss final prep, but likes Churchill.