Fair Grounds
Race 7 - Fair Grounds Handicap
I thought Optimizer was best in here before all the scratches come out. Once all the horses bailed out of this one I really thought he was a cinch. Unfortunately, I didn't catch all those scratches in time to get the website updated, but I was able to make a decent score on him. After being pushed along the Triple Crown trail last year, I think Optimizer has found a home on the turf. And he seems to relish the soft turf, which is worth noting in your PP software.
Race 8 - Mineshaft Handicap
I need to apologize to any of my followers who played my Trifecta suggestion. I left it vulnerable to my D & E selections running 2nd & 3rd. This is an option I rarely leave open when playing a Trifecta, but I thought in this spot that Mark Valeski and Infrattini where much the best in here and would like both be in the Trifecta. I'm sorry, my mistake. Mark Valeski ran a great race and has potential to be a player in the Handicap division. He was trapped and had to wait for room, but once he was clear he rolled home much the best. Infrattini didn't run much at all.
Race 9 - Rachel Alexandra Stakes
Pletcher had Unlimited Budget ready and she rolled home an easy winner. Now she was help by a fast pace set by Dancinginthecircle who was just too fast early to hold on to anything late. The pace definitely help the closers here.
Race 10 - Risen Star Stakes
I wouldn't have bet Ive Struck a Nerve in here with your money, but he got up for the win and will likely be running in this years Kentucky Derby. Oxbow looked the likely winner coming off the turn, but he faded slightly in the stretch. Normandy Invasion just crawled out of the gate, then stumbled a few jumps into the race and had to settle at the back of the pack. But he is the one horse I like coming out of this race. With his troubled start he was moving best late when every other horse seemed to hang a little. He was eating up ground coming to the wire and had this been a 1-1/8 mile race he would have made it really interesting. That said, he still has to prove it, so it will be interesting to see how he runs next out.
Gulfstream Park
Race 9 - Davona Dale Stakes
Live Lively got the jump on the field and lead all the way through a solid pace. Dreaming of Julia had a shot to run down Live Lively, but was never a threat. Private Ensign rated well, but was never a threat on the leader.
Race 10 - Canadian Turf Stakes
Data Link was much the best in here and he should have been because he way outclassed this field. He was 4 wide on the 2nd turn, but did have a solid pace to run into. Za Approval seemed to be blocked late and had to steady just before the wire. It's possible it cost him 3rd place.
Race 11 - Fountain of Youth Stakes
Ord did come running down the lane for the win, but he did have a fast pace to run tinto. Violence set closer to the pace than he probably needed to be and seemed to move too soon on the far turn. But, if Castellano believe he was on the best horse then he probably thought time to make them come get me. Which I can't fault him for riding that way. I did like the way Violence dug back in once Orb collared him, but unfortunately we won't get to see him move forward with the report coming out that he has been injured and most likely retired. Other than those two I really didn't see much else I liked in this race.
Monday, February 25, 2013
Saturday, February 23, 2013
Fair Grounds 2-23-2013 - Risen Star Day Races 8-10
Updated for scratches. If you are having trouble viewing these selections go to Money on the Nose Selection page.
Multi Race Wagers-
Pick 3 - Race 8,9,10
$.50 - 2,7 / 9,7 / 10,9,1 = $6
Race 7 - Fair Grounds Handicap 1-1/16 miles Turf G3
A - #7 Optimizer Winner $4.00
B - #3 Willcox Inn
C - #5 Bim Bam Second
D - #6 Two Months Rent Third
E - #10 Cavalero
Suggest Plays-
$2 - Win #7 = $2 Hit $4.00
$1 - 7/3,5 = $2 Hit $10.80
Race Notes-
I didn't have this on the blog originally, but once I saw the scratches I thought Optimizer was a cinch.
Race 8 - Mineshaft Handicap 1-1/16 miles G3
A - #2 Mark Valeski (2-1) - one of two who appear to best this field Winner $3.80
B - #7 Infrattini (5/2) - the other one who will likely be the best
C - #6 Hero of Order (12-1) - not without of a shot if Bridgmohan can steal on lead, but unlikely
D - #5 Golden Ticket (7/2) - good exotics chance Third
E - #4 Cool Street (6-1) - likes FG, but a cut below, needs some pace to run at Second
Multi Race Horses-
2,7
Suggested Plays-
Trifecta
$1 - 2,7/2,7/6,5,4 = $6
$.50 - 2,7/6,5,4/2,7 = $3
Race 9 - Rachel Alexandra Stakes 1-1/16 miles G3
A - #9 Midnight Ballet (8-1) - other speed in race should help, 1st out 2013 but work tab good and gets smart rider
B - #7 Unlimited Budget (5/2) - has speed, but did show she could rate in first out Winner
C - #3 Dancinginthecircle (7/2) - could mix it up, but big beyer was earned while on clear lead and horses rarely repeat that
D - #8 Every Way (6-1) - suspect trainer is looking to move this one forward on dirt
E - #1 Finding More (8-1) - maybe a good value add for exotics
Multi Race Horses-
9,7
Suggested Plays-
Exacta
$1 - 9,7/9,7,3 = $4
$1 - 9/8,1 = $2
Race 10 - Risen Star Stakes 1-1/16 miles G2
A - #10 Oxbox (5-1) - hoping he can steal this one on the lead
B - #9 Normandy Invasion (5/2) - a tough horse, but definitely beatable
C - #1 Proud Strike (8-1) - horse could very well move forward and gets smart rider
D - #6 Palace Malice (8-1) - contender, but will have to move forward to win, exotics use Third
E - #2 Code West (6-1) - Baffert horse stretching out, but don't think he'll be a win canidate Second
Multi Race Horses-
10,9,1
Suggested Plays-
Exacta
$2 - 10,9/10,9 = $4
$1 - 10,9/1,6,2 = $6
Trifecta
$1 - 10,9/10,9,1/10,9,1,6,2 = $6
$.50 - 10,9/1,6,2/10,9,1 = $5
Multi Race Wagers-
Pick 3 - Race 8,9,10
$.50 - 2,7 / 9,7 / 10,9,1 = $6
Race 7 - Fair Grounds Handicap 1-1/16 miles Turf G3
A - #7 Optimizer Winner $4.00
B - #3 Willcox Inn
C - #5 Bim Bam Second
D - #6 Two Months Rent Third
E - #10 Cavalero
Suggest Plays-
$2 - Win #7 = $2 Hit $4.00
$1 - 7/3,5 = $2 Hit $10.80
Race Notes-
I didn't have this on the blog originally, but once I saw the scratches I thought Optimizer was a cinch.
Race 8 - Mineshaft Handicap 1-1/16 miles G3
A - #2 Mark Valeski (2-1) - one of two who appear to best this field Winner $3.80
B - #7 Infrattini (5/2) - the other one who will likely be the best
C - #6 Hero of Order (12-1) - not without of a shot if Bridgmohan can steal on lead, but unlikely
D - #5 Golden Ticket (7/2) - good exotics chance Third
E - #4 Cool Street (6-1) - likes FG, but a cut below, needs some pace to run at Second
Multi Race Horses-
2,7
Suggested Plays-
Trifecta
$1 - 2,7/2,7/6,5,4 = $6
$.50 - 2,7/6,5,4/2,7 = $3
Race 9 - Rachel Alexandra Stakes 1-1/16 miles G3
A - #9 Midnight Ballet (8-1) - other speed in race should help, 1st out 2013 but work tab good and gets smart rider
B - #7 Unlimited Budget (5/2) - has speed, but did show she could rate in first out Winner
C - #3 Dancinginthecircle (7/2) - could mix it up, but big beyer was earned while on clear lead and horses rarely repeat that
D - #8 Every Way (6-1) - suspect trainer is looking to move this one forward on dirt
E - #1 Finding More (8-1) - maybe a good value add for exotics
Multi Race Horses-
9,7
Suggested Plays-
Exacta
$1 - 9,7/9,7,3 = $4
$1 - 9/8,1 = $2
Race 10 - Risen Star Stakes 1-1/16 miles G2
A - #10 Oxbox (5-1) - hoping he can steal this one on the lead
B - #9 Normandy Invasion (5/2) - a tough horse, but definitely beatable
C - #1 Proud Strike (8-1) - horse could very well move forward and gets smart rider
D - #6 Palace Malice (8-1) - contender, but will have to move forward to win, exotics use Third
E - #2 Code West (6-1) - Baffert horse stretching out, but don't think he'll be a win canidate Second
Multi Race Horses-
10,9,1
Suggested Plays-
Exacta
$2 - 10,9/10,9 = $4
$1 - 10,9/1,6,2 = $6
Trifecta
$1 - 10,9/10,9,1/10,9,1,6,2 = $6
$.50 - 10,9/1,6,2/10,9,1 = $5
Gulfstream Park 2-23-2013 - Fountain of Youth Day Races 7-12
Updated for scratches. If you are having trouble view these selections, please go to the Money on the Nose selection page at our website.
Multi Race Plays
Pick 3 - Races 9,10,11
$1 - 1,4,3 / 4,10,1 / 3,4,6 = $27
Race 7 - Optional Claiming 1-1/16 miles Turf
A - #8 Crop Report (5-1) - this is an angle I like to play, European horse running first time on turf and it's Motion Third
B - #4 Tesseron (5/2) - has some class, work pattern suggestion says he's ready, may sit good trip
C - #1 Bold Challenger (6-1) - will save ground, definitely fits here
D - #9 Redwood Kitten (3-1) - drops in class, has speed, threat Second
E - #2 North Slope (6-2) - has won here, 2nd out should move forward
Multi Race Horses-
A - 8,4
B - 1,9
Race 8 - Optional Claiming 1 mile Turf
A - #11 Achilles (7/2) - likes this distance, should move forward and sit the right trip
B - #10 Under Control (12-1) - like works and likes the distance
C - #7 Big Blue Spirit (10-1) - like the trip he should get and should move forward Third
D - #5 Which Market (4-1) - could definitely handle this, but worried style will hurt with lack of pace
E - #9 Dominant Jeannes (10-1) - 1st out 2013, can fire fresh, 3 for 3 in money at distance Winner
Multi Race Horses-
A - 11,10
B - 7,5
Race 9 - Davona Dale Stakes G2
A - #1 Private Ensign (4-1) - likes Gulfstream, nice last work Third
B - #4 Live Lively (5/2) - has won here, 2nd out 2013, has real shot for upset Winner
C - #3 Dreaming of Julia (4/5) - 1st out 2013, Pletcher probably has ready, but beatable Second
D - #5 Twice Told Tale (12-1)
E - #2 Lady Banks (6-1)
Multi Race Horses-
1,4,3
Race Notes-
I think Dreaming of Julia is very beatable here.
Suggested Plays-
Trifecta-
$.50 - 1,4,3/1,4,3/1,4,3,5 = $6.00 Hit $5.00
Race 10 - Canadian Turf Stakes G3
A - #4 Data Link (2-1) - class of field, any pace would help, can fire fresh, could lay over this field if ready Winner $4.20
B - #10 Za Approval (5-1) - has a real shot, can close, may sit right trip
C - #1 Joes Blazing Aaron (6-1) - has speed, expect to go, likes GP Second
D - #3 Howe Great (4-1) - has class, coming of layoff, but Motion can have ready
E - #2 Beau Choix (6-1) - pace in here will help, has run well at GP Third
Multi Race Horse-
4,10,1
Suggested Plays-
Trifecta-
$.50 - 4/10,1,3,2/10,1,3,2 = $6 Hit $26.35
$1 - 10,1/10,1,4 = $4 (Exacta Saver)
Race 11 - Fountain of Youth Stakes G2
A - #3 Violence (9/5) - definitely the one to beat, but 1st start in 2013 maybe his only weakness, working great Second
B - #6 Cerro (4-1) - Motion said this is a litmus test, but maybe prime to take down the favorite
C - #4 Majestic Hussar (6-1) - speed, sprinter stretching out, interesting horse
D - #8 Speak Logistics (12-1) - could very well fill out exotics Third
E - #9 He's Had Enough
Multi Race Horses-
A - 3
B - 4,6
Race Notes-
Violence will be heavily singled on a lot of multi race tickets and singled on trifectas. I would back him with a second choice. Violence is good and has been working well, but this is his first out in 2013 and other horses on coming into their own, don't count them out.
Suggested Plays-
Exacta-
$2 - 3,6/3,6 = $4
$1 - 3,6/4,10,7 = $6
Trifecta-
$.50 - 3,6/3,6,4,10,7/3,6,4,10,7 = $12.00
Race 12 - MSW 1 mile Turf
A - #5 Forever Thing (7/2) - will be over bet because of Pletcher, but works suggest he'll be ready Second
B - #12 Tiz Now My Choice (10-1) - like works, close well last out
C - #6 Surfspun (8-1) - stretching out, may like the added ground and interesting prospect
D - #4 Market Outlook (4-1) - good work pattern
E - #7 Summer Shiner (6-1) - 1st out 2013, could handle these if ready
Value Add Ons-
#2 Harrythenavigator (12-1) - tough spot but could catch exotics
#1 Sevenoaks (10-1)
Multi Race Horses-
A - 5,12
B - 6,4,7
C - 10,3,2
Race Notes-
This race is wide open. Anyone can win. Either you'll have to go slim or spread out pretty far. If you have an opinion you could score well. Too wide open, no suggested plays.
Multi Race Plays
Pick 3 - Races 9,10,11
$1 - 1,4,3 / 4,10,1 / 3,4,6 = $27
Race 7 - Optional Claiming 1-1/16 miles Turf
A - #8 Crop Report (5-1) - this is an angle I like to play, European horse running first time on turf and it's Motion Third
B - #4 Tesseron (5/2) - has some class, work pattern suggestion says he's ready, may sit good trip
C - #1 Bold Challenger (6-1) - will save ground, definitely fits here
D - #9 Redwood Kitten (3-1) - drops in class, has speed, threat Second
E - #2 North Slope (6-2) - has won here, 2nd out should move forward
Multi Race Horses-
A - 8,4
B - 1,9
Race 8 - Optional Claiming 1 mile Turf
A - #11 Achilles (7/2) - likes this distance, should move forward and sit the right trip
B - #10 Under Control (12-1) - like works and likes the distance
C - #7 Big Blue Spirit (10-1) - like the trip he should get and should move forward Third
D - #5 Which Market (4-1) - could definitely handle this, but worried style will hurt with lack of pace
E - #9 Dominant Jeannes (10-1) - 1st out 2013, can fire fresh, 3 for 3 in money at distance Winner
Multi Race Horses-
A - 11,10
B - 7,5
Race 9 - Davona Dale Stakes G2
A - #1 Private Ensign (4-1) - likes Gulfstream, nice last work Third
B - #4 Live Lively (5/2) - has won here, 2nd out 2013, has real shot for upset Winner
C - #3 Dreaming of Julia (4/5) - 1st out 2013, Pletcher probably has ready, but beatable Second
D - #5 Twice Told Tale (12-1)
E - #2 Lady Banks (6-1)
Multi Race Horses-
1,4,3
Race Notes-
I think Dreaming of Julia is very beatable here.
Suggested Plays-
Trifecta-
$.50 - 1,4,3/1,4,3/1,4,3,5 = $6.00 Hit $5.00
Race 10 - Canadian Turf Stakes G3
A - #4 Data Link (2-1) - class of field, any pace would help, can fire fresh, could lay over this field if ready Winner $4.20
B - #10 Za Approval (5-1) - has a real shot, can close, may sit right trip
C - #1 Joes Blazing Aaron (6-1) - has speed, expect to go, likes GP Second
D - #3 Howe Great (4-1) - has class, coming of layoff, but Motion can have ready
E - #2 Beau Choix (6-1) - pace in here will help, has run well at GP Third
Multi Race Horse-
4,10,1
Suggested Plays-
Trifecta-
$.50 - 4/10,1,3,2/10,1,3,2 = $6 Hit $26.35
$1 - 10,1/10,1,4 = $4 (Exacta Saver)
Race 11 - Fountain of Youth Stakes G2
A - #3 Violence (9/5) - definitely the one to beat, but 1st start in 2013 maybe his only weakness, working great Second
B - #6 Cerro (4-1) - Motion said this is a litmus test, but maybe prime to take down the favorite
C - #4 Majestic Hussar (6-1) - speed, sprinter stretching out, interesting horse
D - #8 Speak Logistics (12-1) - could very well fill out exotics Third
E - #9 He's Had Enough
Multi Race Horses-
A - 3
B - 4,6
Race Notes-
Violence will be heavily singled on a lot of multi race tickets and singled on trifectas. I would back him with a second choice. Violence is good and has been working well, but this is his first out in 2013 and other horses on coming into their own, don't count them out.
Suggested Plays-
Exacta-
$2 - 3,6/3,6 = $4
$1 - 3,6/4,10,7 = $6
Trifecta-
$.50 - 3,6/3,6,4,10,7/3,6,4,10,7 = $12.00
Race 12 - MSW 1 mile Turf
A - #5 Forever Thing (7/2) - will be over bet because of Pletcher, but works suggest he'll be ready Second
B - #12 Tiz Now My Choice (10-1) - like works, close well last out
C - #6 Surfspun (8-1) - stretching out, may like the added ground and interesting prospect
D - #4 Market Outlook (4-1) - good work pattern
E - #7 Summer Shiner (6-1) - 1st out 2013, could handle these if ready
Value Add Ons-
#2 Harrythenavigator (12-1) - tough spot but could catch exotics
#1 Sevenoaks (10-1)
Multi Race Horses-
A - 5,12
B - 6,4,7
C - 10,3,2
Race Notes-
This race is wide open. Anyone can win. Either you'll have to go slim or spread out pretty far. If you have an opinion you could score well. Too wide open, no suggested plays.
Monday, February 18, 2013
Laurel Park 2-18-2013 - General George Handicap Day
Updated for scratches.
Suggested Plays Card Total
Pick 3 - Cost $10 / Return $19.15
Exacta - Cost $54 / Return $70.20
Trifecta - Cost $58.50 / Return $0
Multi Race Wagers
Pick 3 - Races 3,4,5
$.50 - 1,5 / 7,6 / 4,5 = $4
Pick 3 - Races 4,5,6
$.50 - 7,6 / 4,5 / 5,4,3 = $6 Hit $19.15
Race 1 - Maiden 7f
A - #8 Dublin Gulch (9/5) - Only thing to like in here is the speed showed in last 2 outs. - Second
Race Notes:
I don't like much in here at all.
Suggested Plays:
None
Race 2 - Claiming 5-1/2f
A - #5 Unlimited Spirit (4-1) - has good speed if fires fresh - Second
B - #3 Reason to Drink (7/2) - speed, like Laurel, should move forward from last out - Winner
C - #4 My Golden Opinion (3-1) - Good Beyers, may sit right trip
D - #1 Azicharmyou (5/2) - Has won at this level, could very well best this group - Third
E - #2 Lemon Juice (8-1) - As good as any in here
Multi-Race Horses-
5,3,4,1
Race Notes-
Wide open race.
Suggested Plays:
Race 3 - Maiden 6f
A - #1 Light of My Fire (7/5) - sports best beyers in this field, apprentice jock riding good - Second
B - #5 Savings N Loan (4-1) - class dropping, trainer good in this position
C - #4 Do It for Don (9/2) - class dropping, is 1st out in 2012, trainer has good %'s - Winner
D - #8 Le Tricheur (6-1) - very interesting move here, this type of horse has beat me before, wild card
E - #6 Photogenic (12-1) - beyers fit with some others in here, should offer some value - Third
Multi-Race Horses-
1,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$3 - 1,5 / 1,5 = $6
$2 - 1,5 / 4 = $4
$1 - 1,5 / 8,6 = $4
Trifecta
$1 - 1,5 / 1,5,4 / 1,5,4 = $6
$.50 - 1,5 / 1,5,4 / 8,6 = $4
$.50 - 1,5 / 8,6 / 1,5,4 = $4
Race 4 - Claiming 1-1/16 miles
A - #7 Don't Scip a Check (6-1) - could steal with lead - Winner $13.80
B - #6 Chardsey (3-1) - Third
C - #2 Locche (8-1)
D - #3 Travel the World (9/2)
E - #5 Spinnaker Bay (5-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,6
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 7,6 / 7,6,2 = $8
$1 - 7,6 / 3,5 = $4
Trifecta
$1 - 7,6 / 7,6,2 / 7,6,2,3 = $8
$.50 - 7,6 / 7,6,2 / 5 = $1.50
$.50 - 7,6 / 3,5 / 7,6,2 = $4
Race 5 - Claiming 7f
A - #4 It's Never to Late (4/5) - could be easily the best, but why drop to this level - Winner $2.80
B - #5 Summer of Summers (10-1) - like the speed
C - #8 Silent Tap (9/2) - Second
D - #3 Flavor (6-1)
E - #6 Mister Dish (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
4 -OR- 4,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$3 - 4,5 / 4,5 = $6
$2 - 4,5 / 8 = $4 Hit $8.20
$1 - 4,5 / 3,6 = $4
Trifecta
$1 - 4,5 / 4,5 / 8,3,6 = $6
$1 - 4,5 / 8 / 4,5 = $2
$.50 - 4,5 / 4,5,8 / 3,6 = $4
$.50 - 4,5 / 3,6 / 4,5,8 = $4
Race 6 - Claiming 1 Mile
A - #5 Sumo (2-1) - could wire field
B - #4 St John's Gospel (9/5) - Winner
C - #3 Boom de Ya Da (4-1) - Third
D - #1 Radio Relay (6-1)
E - #7 Pluracity (8-1) - Second
Multi-Race Horses-
5,4,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - Claiming 7f
A - #9 Seeyouinthecity (5/2) - have to respect Ness here
B - #7 Vigilante Law (6-1) - Third
C - #6 Starforaday (3-1) - could very well win here, but there are some questions - Winner
D - #8 The Prince (20-1)
E - #2 Kippers n' Eggs (10-1) - may provide some value in exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
9,7,6
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight 7f
A - #9 Imperial Bluegrazz (5/2) - Good Beyer, have to respect trainer
B - #3 It's My Perogative (8-1) - Second
C - #6 Green Canyon (3-1) - Third
D - #4 Indian Bucks (4-1) - Winner
E - #1/1a Perilous Indian/Broad Moon
Multi-Race Horses-
9,3,6
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - General George Handicap G3 7f
A - #1 Brigand (9/5) - speed, like the good 5f work, always have to give a Baffert horse a serious look - Second Dq'd
B - #6 Javerre (8-1) - like the Feb 13th long work, never out of Trifecta, speed and could sit good trip - Winner
C - #2 Il Villano (3-1) - 1st out 2013, not sure ready, but could easily best this field on good day - Second
D - #4 Associate (4-1)
E - #5 Fiddlers Afleet (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
1,6,2
Race Notes-
Top 3 best for win. Most likely exacta will come from top 4. There is a chance for a duel between 1 & 6.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 1,6 / 1,6,2 = $8 Hit $62.00
$1 - 1,6 / 4,5 = $4
$1 - 2 / 1,6 = $2
Trifecta
$1 - 1,6 / 1,6,2 / 1,6,2 = $4
$.50 - 1,6 / 1,6,2 / 4,5 = $4
$.50 - 1,6 / 4,5 / 1,6,2 = $4
$.50 - 2 /1,6 / 1,6,4,5 = $3
Race 10 - Maiden 7f
A - #8 Debonair Lad (3-1)
B - #2 Nacho Earl (5/2) - Second
C - #3 Cherokee Colours (10-1)
D - #6 Idle Spur (12-1) - Third
E - #9 Ohnonotagain (2-1) - Winner
Multi-Race Horses-
8,2
Race Notes-
Don't like much in here.
Suggested Plays:
Suggested Plays Card Total
Pick 3 - Cost $10 / Return $19.15
Exacta - Cost $54 / Return $70.20
Trifecta - Cost $58.50 / Return $0
Multi Race Wagers
Pick 3 - Races 3,4,5
$.50 - 1,5 / 7,6 / 4,5 = $4
Pick 3 - Races 4,5,6
$.50 - 7,6 / 4,5 / 5,4,3 = $6 Hit $19.15
Race 1 - Maiden 7f
A - #8 Dublin Gulch (9/5) - Only thing to like in here is the speed showed in last 2 outs. - Second
Race Notes:
I don't like much in here at all.
Suggested Plays:
None
Race 2 - Claiming 5-1/2f
A - #5 Unlimited Spirit (4-1) - has good speed if fires fresh - Second
B - #3 Reason to Drink (7/2) - speed, like Laurel, should move forward from last out - Winner
C - #4 My Golden Opinion (3-1) - Good Beyers, may sit right trip
D - #1 Azicharmyou (5/2) - Has won at this level, could very well best this group - Third
E - #2 Lemon Juice (8-1) - As good as any in here
Multi-Race Horses-
5,3,4,1
Race Notes-
Wide open race.
Suggested Plays:
Race 3 - Maiden 6f
A - #1 Light of My Fire (7/5) - sports best beyers in this field, apprentice jock riding good - Second
B - #5 Savings N Loan (4-1) - class dropping, trainer good in this position
C - #4 Do It for Don (9/2) - class dropping, is 1st out in 2012, trainer has good %'s - Winner
D - #8 Le Tricheur (6-1) - very interesting move here, this type of horse has beat me before, wild card
E - #6 Photogenic (12-1) - beyers fit with some others in here, should offer some value - Third
Multi-Race Horses-
1,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$3 - 1,5 / 1,5 = $6
$2 - 1,5 / 4 = $4
$1 - 1,5 / 8,6 = $4
Trifecta
$1 - 1,5 / 1,5,4 / 1,5,4 = $6
$.50 - 1,5 / 1,5,4 / 8,6 = $4
$.50 - 1,5 / 8,6 / 1,5,4 = $4
Race 4 - Claiming 1-1/16 miles
A - #7 Don't Scip a Check (6-1) - could steal with lead - Winner $13.80
B - #6 Chardsey (3-1) - Third
C - #2 Locche (8-1)
D - #3 Travel the World (9/2)
E - #5 Spinnaker Bay (5-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,6
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 7,6 / 7,6,2 = $8
$1 - 7,6 / 3,5 = $4
Trifecta
$1 - 7,6 / 7,6,2 / 7,6,2,3 = $8
$.50 - 7,6 / 7,6,2 / 5 = $1.50
$.50 - 7,6 / 3,5 / 7,6,2 = $4
Race 5 - Claiming 7f
A - #4 It's Never to Late (4/5) - could be easily the best, but why drop to this level - Winner $2.80
B - #5 Summer of Summers (10-1) - like the speed
C - #8 Silent Tap (9/2) - Second
D - #3 Flavor (6-1)
E - #6 Mister Dish (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
4 -OR- 4,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$3 - 4,5 / 4,5 = $6
$2 - 4,5 / 8 = $4 Hit $8.20
$1 - 4,5 / 3,6 = $4
Trifecta
$1 - 4,5 / 4,5 / 8,3,6 = $6
$1 - 4,5 / 8 / 4,5 = $2
$.50 - 4,5 / 4,5,8 / 3,6 = $4
$.50 - 4,5 / 3,6 / 4,5,8 = $4
Race 6 - Claiming 1 Mile
A - #5 Sumo (2-1) - could wire field
B - #4 St John's Gospel (9/5) - Winner
C - #3 Boom de Ya Da (4-1) - Third
D - #1 Radio Relay (6-1)
E - #7 Pluracity (8-1) - Second
Multi-Race Horses-
5,4,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - Claiming 7f
A - #9 Seeyouinthecity (5/2) - have to respect Ness here
B - #7 Vigilante Law (6-1) - Third
C - #6 Starforaday (3-1) - could very well win here, but there are some questions - Winner
D - #8 The Prince (20-1)
E - #2 Kippers n' Eggs (10-1) - may provide some value in exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
9,7,6
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight 7f
A - #9 Imperial Bluegrazz (5/2) - Good Beyer, have to respect trainer
B - #3 It's My Perogative (8-1) - Second
C - #6 Green Canyon (3-1) - Third
D - #4 Indian Bucks (4-1) - Winner
E - #1/1a Perilous Indian/Broad Moon
Multi-Race Horses-
9,3,6
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - General George Handicap G3 7f
A - #1 Brigand (9/5) - speed, like the good 5f work, always have to give a Baffert horse a serious look - Second Dq'd
B - #6 Javerre (8-1) - like the Feb 13th long work, never out of Trifecta, speed and could sit good trip - Winner
C - #2 Il Villano (3-1) - 1st out 2013, not sure ready, but could easily best this field on good day - Second
D - #4 Associate (4-1)
E - #5 Fiddlers Afleet (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
1,6,2
Race Notes-
Top 3 best for win. Most likely exacta will come from top 4. There is a chance for a duel between 1 & 6.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 1,6 / 1,6,2 = $8 Hit $62.00
$1 - 1,6 / 4,5 = $4
$1 - 2 / 1,6 = $2
Trifecta
$1 - 1,6 / 1,6,2 / 1,6,2 = $4
$.50 - 1,6 / 1,6,2 / 4,5 = $4
$.50 - 1,6 / 4,5 / 1,6,2 = $4
$.50 - 2 /1,6 / 1,6,4,5 = $3
Race 10 - Maiden 7f
A - #8 Debonair Lad (3-1)
B - #2 Nacho Earl (5/2) - Second
C - #3 Cherokee Colours (10-1)
D - #6 Idle Spur (12-1) - Third
E - #9 Ohnonotagain (2-1) - Winner
Multi-Race Horses-
8,2
Race Notes-
Don't like much in here.
Suggested Plays:
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
Gulfstream Park - Donn Handicap Day Recap
Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap G1
There's been a lot of Monday morning jockeying about Joel Rosario's ride on Animal Kingdom. People are saying that he moved way too soon and if you looked at where he was on the track it would appear that way. But, to be honest I thought that was his only chance to win the race, esp. after I saw the slow half mile time and the head on replay. There were to major factors that were working against him: 1) The 1/2 mile time was 50 2/5 seconds, that is a crawling pace, there is no way Animal Kingdom was going to make up the 2-3 lengths on a horse like Point of Entry with that kind of slow pace. 2) When watching the head-on replay you'll see that Salto was close to 4-5 paths wide and Point of Entry was on the outside of him. There was no way Animal Kingdom was going to beat Point of Entry by going widest by 6 paths. So Rosario was left with one option and that was to put him in the hole on the rail that was given to him and to get him in the race a little earlier so he would have a chance to out kick Point of Entry. Look, I'm and huge Animal Kingdom fan, but let's face it, he was even on the turn with Point of Entry and had the lead in the stretch, but he just got out run down the stretch by a really good horse. In the end, Animal Kingdom is still a really good horse and should benefit from this race. Also, I thought Unbridled Command ran a good race against 2 really good horses. It will be interesting to watch his next race.
Gulfstream Park Donn Handicap G1
If I would have handicapped this race 100 different times, never would I have thought that a single horse would have found himself alone on the lead. In my handicapping there were 5 possible speed horses in this field. Hats off to Graydar for wiring the field! In my notes I wrote that it was a bold move for Pletcher and I should have picked up on that. For Pletcher to make such a move one would have to think he had an idea of what was under the hood in Graydar. Take Charge Indy was in the best position to run down Graydar, but when Graydar got away on the far turn there was no catching him. Flat Out didn't run a step, which he does from time to time. This track and race didn't setup well for him. So if you are a Flat Out fan, don't worry he'll be back. Bourbon Courage was running hard late and was very game, but he simply had too much to do to catch the winner.
Looking forward to more racing next weekend...
There's been a lot of Monday morning jockeying about Joel Rosario's ride on Animal Kingdom. People are saying that he moved way too soon and if you looked at where he was on the track it would appear that way. But, to be honest I thought that was his only chance to win the race, esp. after I saw the slow half mile time and the head on replay. There were to major factors that were working against him: 1) The 1/2 mile time was 50 2/5 seconds, that is a crawling pace, there is no way Animal Kingdom was going to make up the 2-3 lengths on a horse like Point of Entry with that kind of slow pace. 2) When watching the head-on replay you'll see that Salto was close to 4-5 paths wide and Point of Entry was on the outside of him. There was no way Animal Kingdom was going to beat Point of Entry by going widest by 6 paths. So Rosario was left with one option and that was to put him in the hole on the rail that was given to him and to get him in the race a little earlier so he would have a chance to out kick Point of Entry. Look, I'm and huge Animal Kingdom fan, but let's face it, he was even on the turn with Point of Entry and had the lead in the stretch, but he just got out run down the stretch by a really good horse. In the end, Animal Kingdom is still a really good horse and should benefit from this race. Also, I thought Unbridled Command ran a good race against 2 really good horses. It will be interesting to watch his next race.
Gulfstream Park Donn Handicap G1
If I would have handicapped this race 100 different times, never would I have thought that a single horse would have found himself alone on the lead. In my handicapping there were 5 possible speed horses in this field. Hats off to Graydar for wiring the field! In my notes I wrote that it was a bold move for Pletcher and I should have picked up on that. For Pletcher to make such a move one would have to think he had an idea of what was under the hood in Graydar. Take Charge Indy was in the best position to run down Graydar, but when Graydar got away on the far turn there was no catching him. Flat Out didn't run a step, which he does from time to time. This track and race didn't setup well for him. So if you are a Flat Out fan, don't worry he'll be back. Bourbon Courage was running hard late and was very game, but he simply had too much to do to catch the winner.
Looking forward to more racing next weekend...
Saturday, February 9, 2013
Gulfstream Park 2-9-2013 - Donn Handicap Day Races 8-11
Not Final. Will update once scratches come out.
Saturday 2-9-2012 - Gulfstream Park
Race 8 - Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap G1
A - #6 Animal Kingdom (8/5)
B - #2 Point of Entry (9/5)
C - #3 Salto (4-1) - Will be the speed, but can he hold off AK and PoE
D - #4 Unbridled Command (15-1) - Will offer some good value in Trifecta
E - #5 Where's the Baby (4-1) - Maybe can mix up Trifecta
Race 9 - Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship G3
A - #6 Bahamian Squall (3-1)
B - #2 Travelin Man (5/2)
C - #8 Big Grandpa (6-1) - Will be coming late
D - #5 Fort Loudon (4-1) - Should be good on turn back
E - #3 Good Morning Diva (8-1)
Race 10 - Suwannee River Stakes G3
A - #4 Hard Not to Like (7/2) - Like the way Matz has her setup here
B - #6 Romacaca (6-1) - Has a real shot to wire this field
C - #5 Channel Lady (5/2)
D - #8 Abaco (8-1)
E - #3 Kya One (5-1) - Likes this distance, may mix up Trifecta
Race 11 - Donn Handicap G1
A - #8 Take Charge Indy (6-1) - Feel like he'll sit a good trip, hope Johnny V. sits him just off the pace
B - #7 Csaba (4-1) - Likes Gulfstream and had a good prep
C - #1 Bourbon Courage (8-1)
D - #2 Flat Out (3-1) - Race could setup for style and is class of race, but will have to run them down, trying to beat
E - #4 Graydar (5-1) - Likes Gulfstream, but bold move for Pletcher
Saturday 2-9-2012 - Gulfstream Park
Race 8 - Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap G1
A - #6 Animal Kingdom (8/5)
B - #2 Point of Entry (9/5)
C - #3 Salto (4-1) - Will be the speed, but can he hold off AK and PoE
D - #4 Unbridled Command (15-1) - Will offer some good value in Trifecta
E - #5 Where's the Baby (4-1) - Maybe can mix up Trifecta
Race 9 - Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship G3
A - #6 Bahamian Squall (3-1)
B - #2 Travelin Man (5/2)
C - #8 Big Grandpa (6-1) - Will be coming late
D - #5 Fort Loudon (4-1) - Should be good on turn back
E - #3 Good Morning Diva (8-1)
Race 10 - Suwannee River Stakes G3
A - #4 Hard Not to Like (7/2) - Like the way Matz has her setup here
B - #6 Romacaca (6-1) - Has a real shot to wire this field
C - #5 Channel Lady (5/2)
D - #8 Abaco (8-1)
E - #3 Kya One (5-1) - Likes this distance, may mix up Trifecta
Race 11 - Donn Handicap G1
A - #8 Take Charge Indy (6-1) - Feel like he'll sit a good trip, hope Johnny V. sits him just off the pace
B - #7 Csaba (4-1) - Likes Gulfstream and had a good prep
C - #1 Bourbon Courage (8-1)
D - #2 Flat Out (3-1) - Race could setup for style and is class of race, but will have to run them down, trying to beat
E - #4 Graydar (5-1) - Likes Gulfstream, but bold move for Pletcher
Thursday, February 7, 2013
Get out your Notepad!
I'm back after my 2-1/2 month hiatus from horse racing to duck hunt. It's a refreshing change and there is no way I could devote enough time to both. There simply are not enough hours in the day and I need to work and sleep. So back to racing...
One of the things I heard Steve Davidowitz say years ago is to keep a notebook of horses you are watching leading up to the big days. How did they run in their prep races? Did they stay on the schedule their trainers intended? How are they working leading up to the race? Never is this more important than leading up to the Kentucky Derby and the rest of the Triple Crown series. Trying to keep all these thoughts organized in your head will turn into a jumbled mess and you'll likely forget something important. Being the nerd that I am, I use a database to keep all of these notes straight, but a simple notebook will work as well.
I have used a notebook in the past and I have a few suggestions that will help you keep it organized. By the time you get to the mid summer races or even the Breeders' Cup you'll have quite a compilation of notes, so it's important to be able to access this information quickly, without too much digging.
First, leave a few pages (4-5) blank at the beginning and number all the pages in the book. In these blank pages write the names of the horses you are watching and every time you make an entry regarding that horse put the page number beside the horses name. Also, you can do the same for race notes.
An example of these would be:
I'll Have Another - 7,10,12
OR
Fountain of Youth Stakes - 13,14.
This way you can easily flip to a certain horse or race. Now since you will be adding horses and races as you go, obviously these first few pages will not be in alphabetical order, but at least you will have some sort of table of contents.
Second, when you make and entry underline the horses name and always put the date beside it.
So for example:
I'll Have Another - 5/1/12 Looked good in final work.
Also, when entering entering a race use all caps for the race name and then use the above format for each horse you are making notes on in that race.
For example:
SANTA ANITA DERBY - 4/7/12
I'll Have Another - 4/7/12 SA Derby - Liked the way he fought hard in stretch for win
Creative Cause - 4/7/12 SA Derby - Good run and was game, but still seemed a little green in stretch
It seems like a lot of work, but these notes will pay huge dividends as the horses run against each other. So whether you're using an old fashion notebook or creating a sophisticated database, doing your homework can be your best bet for a good bet in the future!
2013 Kentucky Derby Watchlist
This is hardly worth doing at this point, but with Pool 1 opening Friday these are the horses I'm watching at this point. And remember, at this point this list could change 20 times before my next post.
1) Revolutionary - I really like how game this horse was in the stretch and how he looked hopelessly beaten mainly due to a horrible trip. Now whether he beat much talent wise remains to be seen. But, I love a horse who shows a lot of heart and he showed it in the Withers Stakes. Lots to like here if he moves forward.
2) Violence - Good win in the CashCall and has won at 3 different tracks, but need to see how he moves forward in 2013.
3) Flashback - Only beat 3 horses in the Robert B. Lewis, but he does seem to have speed which is how Baffert wins a lot of races. Next out should tell a lot.
Others on my list include: Shanghai Bobby, Verrazano, He's Had Enough.
I'll update the list again with my next post.
One of the things I heard Steve Davidowitz say years ago is to keep a notebook of horses you are watching leading up to the big days. How did they run in their prep races? Did they stay on the schedule their trainers intended? How are they working leading up to the race? Never is this more important than leading up to the Kentucky Derby and the rest of the Triple Crown series. Trying to keep all these thoughts organized in your head will turn into a jumbled mess and you'll likely forget something important. Being the nerd that I am, I use a database to keep all of these notes straight, but a simple notebook will work as well.
I have used a notebook in the past and I have a few suggestions that will help you keep it organized. By the time you get to the mid summer races or even the Breeders' Cup you'll have quite a compilation of notes, so it's important to be able to access this information quickly, without too much digging.
First, leave a few pages (4-5) blank at the beginning and number all the pages in the book. In these blank pages write the names of the horses you are watching and every time you make an entry regarding that horse put the page number beside the horses name. Also, you can do the same for race notes.
An example of these would be:
I'll Have Another - 7,10,12
OR
Fountain of Youth Stakes - 13,14.
This way you can easily flip to a certain horse or race. Now since you will be adding horses and races as you go, obviously these first few pages will not be in alphabetical order, but at least you will have some sort of table of contents.
Second, when you make and entry underline the horses name and always put the date beside it.
So for example:
I'll Have Another - 5/1/12 Looked good in final work.
Also, when entering entering a race use all caps for the race name and then use the above format for each horse you are making notes on in that race.
For example:
SANTA ANITA DERBY - 4/7/12
I'll Have Another - 4/7/12 SA Derby - Liked the way he fought hard in stretch for win
Creative Cause - 4/7/12 SA Derby - Good run and was game, but still seemed a little green in stretch
It seems like a lot of work, but these notes will pay huge dividends as the horses run against each other. So whether you're using an old fashion notebook or creating a sophisticated database, doing your homework can be your best bet for a good bet in the future!
2013 Kentucky Derby Watchlist
This is hardly worth doing at this point, but with Pool 1 opening Friday these are the horses I'm watching at this point. And remember, at this point this list could change 20 times before my next post.
1) Revolutionary - I really like how game this horse was in the stretch and how he looked hopelessly beaten mainly due to a horrible trip. Now whether he beat much talent wise remains to be seen. But, I love a horse who shows a lot of heart and he showed it in the Withers Stakes. Lots to like here if he moves forward.
2) Violence - Good win in the CashCall and has won at 3 different tracks, but need to see how he moves forward in 2013.
3) Flashback - Only beat 3 horses in the Robert B. Lewis, but he does seem to have speed which is how Baffert wins a lot of races. Next out should tell a lot.
Others on my list include: Shanghai Bobby, Verrazano, He's Had Enough.
I'll update the list again with my next post.
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