Below are my notes from Mike Welsch's DRF video on Breeders' Cup works for Monday 10-29-2012.
Main Track - Course a little loose, not as fast as over the weekend
Work of the Day
Groupie Doll - showed why she is going to be the favorite, did it easily, 11 2/5 first 1/8, hooked up with Richard's Kid grabbed the bit, pulled away, very strong gallop very easily, definitely her race to lose
Tapizar - seemed rank, 48 4/5
Unbridled's Note - relaxed, 50 1/5, just an easy work
Dust and Diamonds - Welsch interested in, similar to Unbridled's Note work
Justin Phillip - Best of 5 Asmussen horses, finished 23 4/5 all on his own
Great Mills - seemed on the muscle, but settled, got a little tired coming home, but not too bad
Rumor - quick 3/8 in 34 4/5, a little head strong early, looked very sharp
Calidoscopio - 5f in company all the way around 1:01 1/5, was carried out by other horse, finished up average, but not under a lot of pressure, but not a great gallop out, not as good as yesterday
Nancy O - didn't like
Jaycito - went in company, broke off behind, quickly caught workmate, but tired some in stretch
Handsome Mike - looked great, did it easily
Alpha - great appearance, love the way he looked, best looking galloper this morning
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Monday, October 29, 2012
Sunday 10-28-2012 Breeders' Cup Workout Notes
Below are my notes from Mike Welsch's DRF video on Breeders' Cup works for Sunday 10-28-2012.
Main Track - Fast - times a little quicker today than Friday
Game on Dude - brilliant 6f 1:13 1/5, easy, strong gallop
Fed Biz - 5f 1:00 1/5, galloped out well, sneaky player
Fast Bullet - was just cruising easy as can be, galloped out well, sneaky player off layoff
Coil - Caught Capital Account 48 3/5, maintenance work
Capital Account - 48 3/5, maintenance work, about the same as Coil
Contested - Big speed, seemed a little tired at end :59 flat
My Miss Aurelia - maintenance work, evenly :48 for 1/2, relax nicely, beautiful maintenance work, seemed like the wanted to do more, key contender, top form
Class Included - went really well, :47 2/5, galloped out well, really impressed, too bad she is in such strong field
Slim Shady - did not like, but working on dirt and going to run on grass, really tired down lane, no gallop out
Calidoscopio - dragged rider, looked tremendous, could be really dangerous, grabbed bit when saw another horse *Welsch really impressed, maybe good bet
California Flag - Looked like a winner, 46 2/5, just cruising, maintainng form, looked good
Tale of a Champion - 47 1/5, striding out well, looked good
Main Track - Fast - times a little quicker today than Friday
Game on Dude - brilliant 6f 1:13 1/5, easy, strong gallop
Fed Biz - 5f 1:00 1/5, galloped out well, sneaky player
Fast Bullet - was just cruising easy as can be, galloped out well, sneaky player off layoff
Coil - Caught Capital Account 48 3/5, maintenance work
Capital Account - 48 3/5, maintenance work, about the same as Coil
Contested - Big speed, seemed a little tired at end :59 flat
My Miss Aurelia - maintenance work, evenly :48 for 1/2, relax nicely, beautiful maintenance work, seemed like the wanted to do more, key contender, top form
Class Included - went really well, :47 2/5, galloped out well, really impressed, too bad she is in such strong field
Slim Shady - did not like, but working on dirt and going to run on grass, really tired down lane, no gallop out
Calidoscopio - dragged rider, looked tremendous, could be really dangerous, grabbed bit when saw another horse *Welsch really impressed, maybe good bet
California Flag - Looked like a winner, 46 2/5, just cruising, maintainng form, looked good
Tale of a Champion - 47 1/5, striding out well, looked good
Saturday 10-27-2012 Breeders' Cup Workout Notes
Below are my notes from Mike Welsch's DRF video on Breeders' Cup works for Saturday 10-27-2012.
Turf - Firm Dogs Out
Works of the Day-
Main Track - Super Ninety Nine - 5f :59 2/5
Turf Track - Reenesgotzip - 5f :59 2/5 - broke off 3L behind, finished full of run, sitting chilly, galloped out best of all bc workers for the day
Workouts
Dullahan - 5f Dirt 1:00 - 22 4/5 opening, may have gone too fast early, average work
Shackleford - Looked much better than before Forego (when scratched), first 3/8 in :35
Executive Privilage - not impressed, struggled during latter stages of work, dissappointing for favorite
Love and Pride - 48 3/5, better of pair, liked the way she went, final 1/4 23 4/5
Switch - 1:11.58, but didn't like the way she did it, rider really had to get into her, nothing left *ran 2nd in last two BC after not working well
Second City - 6f 1:13 3/5, but did it comfortably, well in hand, nice work
Trinniberg - relaxed nicely, restrained, pretty good work
In Lingerie - 47.08, much better than Turbo Compresser, broke off behind quickly caught him, galloped out very strong
Turbo Compresser - 47 4/5, did not work as well as In Lingerie
Mizdirection- 5f in 58 4/5, 22 3/5 opening
Little Mike - Average work 5f 1:01 3/5, not bad just average
Smiling Tiger - Did not like, under pressure
Turf - Firm Dogs Out
Works of the Day-
Main Track - Super Ninety Nine - 5f :59 2/5
Turf Track - Reenesgotzip - 5f :59 2/5 - broke off 3L behind, finished full of run, sitting chilly, galloped out best of all bc workers for the day
Workouts
Dullahan - 5f Dirt 1:00 - 22 4/5 opening, may have gone too fast early, average work
Shackleford - Looked much better than before Forego (when scratched), first 3/8 in :35
Executive Privilage - not impressed, struggled during latter stages of work, dissappointing for favorite
Love and Pride - 48 3/5, better of pair, liked the way she went, final 1/4 23 4/5
Switch - 1:11.58, but didn't like the way she did it, rider really had to get into her, nothing left *ran 2nd in last two BC after not working well
Second City - 6f 1:13 3/5, but did it comfortably, well in hand, nice work
Trinniberg - relaxed nicely, restrained, pretty good work
In Lingerie - 47.08, much better than Turbo Compresser, broke off behind quickly caught him, galloped out very strong
Turbo Compresser - 47 4/5, did not work as well as In Lingerie
Mizdirection- 5f in 58 4/5, 22 3/5 opening
Little Mike - Average work 5f 1:01 3/5, not bad just average
Smiling Tiger - Did not like, under pressure
Sunday, October 28, 2012
10/27/2012 Notes & Breeders' Cup Thoughts...
Belmont - Bold Ruler Stakes
Caixa Eletronica - If you know me, you konw I love this horse. I thought he seemed like he was running a little flat on the backstretch. He tried to put together a bid, but then faded badly. We'll see how he comes out of this and he has bounced back off poor finishes in the past
Laurel Park - Laurel Turf Cup Stakes
Dannhauser - First of all I want apologize to my followers for not handicapping this weekend. I felt like Dannhauser was moving forward and thought he ran a sneaky good race in the Japan Racing Association Stakes, plus he had a great win before that at Colonial coming from well off the pace. And, Sheldon Russell on the turf must always be considered. Just glancing at the entries I liked See Tobe first, with Dannhauser second. Luckily, Sheldon found room on the inside and Dannhauser fired in his usual fashion.
See Tobe - Another good effort, but Dannhauser got the jump on him this time with a rail saving trip. Unlike in the Japan Racing Association Stakes where Dannhauser closed from further back.
Keeneland - Fayette Stakes
Take Charge Indy - Borel and Pat Byrne must have had a lot of confidence in this horse, because they sent him hard from the gate to make the lead. I had figured he may sit just behind the leaders. Making his first start since the Kentucky Derby the first weekend in May, going 1-1/8 mile off this layoff and facing older horses for the first time I thought he ran a great race. He led throughout, fought off a challenge in the stretch and only faded shortly before the wire. If this had been a 1 mile or 1-1/16 mile race he very much could have won. Hats off to this colt and depending on his placement he'll probably be a good bet next out, esp. if he shortens up just a little.
Breeders' Cup Thoughts
I haven't begun any serious handicapping and these selections are by no means final, but here are a few of my thoughts at this point. More to come next week...
Breeders Cup Classic
Game on Dude - At this point I have to go with most and say he is the horse to beat. I thought he could have won last year and this year he is running on a track that he loves, should play to his speed, gets a top jockey (not that Chantal didn't give him some good rides or wasn't a top jockey) and you know Baffert will have him ready. Plus, he showed last out he doesn't need the lead to win, just keep him within striking distance. At this point I'd have to say he is my pick, though that is subject to change.
Mucho Macho Man - Again, if you know me you know I really like this horse, always have. I thought he ran a really good Woodward, but I would have liked to see him get by To Honor and Serve. He seems to have been working great since then, so the jury is still out. Has an upset chance.
Ron the Greek - Stole the "Big Cap" while "the Dude" was away in Dubai and he beat Wise Dan in the Stephen Foster (though admittedly it was not Wise Dan's best race). He's proven he can win at Santa Anita which I like. But he's going to need someone to press pace early for him to get by Game on Dude and he was flat in the Gold Cup. Has an upset chance.
Fort Larned - I really liked this horse in the Whitney, did run bad in the Gold Cup. But I would liked to have seen him win the Gold Cup against a few that are running back in the BC Classic. Definitely a horse to use in the exotics, with some small upset chance.
Royal Delta - Definitely fits with these, but I think she'll run in the Distaff (aka Ladies Classic).
To Honor and Serve - Good when a shows up, a money burner when he doesn't. Definitely a horse to use in the exotics. Held off Mucho Macho Man in the Woodward and he'll need that same effort (and a little more) to win. Was flat in the Kelso, but Mott obviously knows how to prepare for the Breeders' Cup. With that said Drosslemeyer was moving forward last year, not sure I can say them same about To Honor and Serve.
Flat Out - I'm really not sure what to make of him at this point other than he loves Belmont where he won his last 3 wins have come. Don't like him to win, but definitely an exotics horse.
Breeders' Cup Turf Mile
Wise Dan - This horse has consistently shown he is on top of his game and would be a possible single if not for the Euro.
Excelebration - A Euro in a Breeders' Cup turf race - always dangerous and likely winner.
Animal Kingdom - To me this is the most interesting entry in both days of racing. Graham Motion always places his horse well, but this is ambitious. Still, plenty of horses have won off the layoff and he is a Kentucky Derby winner who likes the turf and should offer some value - you don't get that often. I think he has a real chance here, especially to complete the exacta, if not the trifecta.
Obviously - Good in his last out. Don't see him getting over the top 3. Trifecta horse.
Little Mike - Don't like him to win, but I will not let him beat me in the Trifecta.
Trailblazer - A good showing in this last out. Exotics use.
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Shackleford - An easy winner with his best form, but that is in question. Still, the track should play to his liking.
Emcee - Always gives an honest effort and could pick up the pieces if Shackleford decides he'd rather go back to the barn and graze.
Nonios - A good stalking second last out. Shortening up, so definitely a possibility, esp. if he moves forward.
Jersey Town - Won last out, but I don't like him here. Too much of a hit and miss horse, and in the Breeders' Cup you have to bring your best.
Rail Trip - Good use for value in your exotics.
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
California Flag - Seriously, how do you bet against this 8 yr old? He may not be in as good of shape as 2009, but he loves the downhill course.
Breeders' Cup Sprint
Coil - Proves he deserves a solid look after gamely winning his last out. He's a speedy horse and has a real shot here, still I think the distance maybe a little short for him.
Amazombie - If he shows up he should handle these with ease, but after his last out that ability is in questions and he maybe a good bet against in the win category.
Capital Account - Good second in prep, an upset chance if Amazombie doesn't fire.
Emcee - Fits here if doesn't run in Dirt Mile. An upset chance if Amazombie doesn't fire.
Trinniberg - Has not been as good in his last starts, but the track my play to his speed and thus a good exotics option.
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Groupie Doll - Very likely the best single in the Breeders' Cup.
Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic
Royal Delta - Definitely the best if runs here. There are some in here with an upset chance, but I'd lean heavily on this one.
Awesome Feather - 10 for 10, one on the short list for an upset chance in here.
Questing - Good, but may not be good enough for the two above. Still had a great performance at Saratoga other than drifting. Could very well complete exacta.
My Miss Aurelia - Another solid contender, see her likely to fill out exotics. Has been managed well, upset chance.
More to come next week...
Caixa Eletronica - If you know me, you konw I love this horse. I thought he seemed like he was running a little flat on the backstretch. He tried to put together a bid, but then faded badly. We'll see how he comes out of this and he has bounced back off poor finishes in the past
Laurel Park - Laurel Turf Cup Stakes
Dannhauser - First of all I want apologize to my followers for not handicapping this weekend. I felt like Dannhauser was moving forward and thought he ran a sneaky good race in the Japan Racing Association Stakes, plus he had a great win before that at Colonial coming from well off the pace. And, Sheldon Russell on the turf must always be considered. Just glancing at the entries I liked See Tobe first, with Dannhauser second. Luckily, Sheldon found room on the inside and Dannhauser fired in his usual fashion.
See Tobe - Another good effort, but Dannhauser got the jump on him this time with a rail saving trip. Unlike in the Japan Racing Association Stakes where Dannhauser closed from further back.
Keeneland - Fayette Stakes
Take Charge Indy - Borel and Pat Byrne must have had a lot of confidence in this horse, because they sent him hard from the gate to make the lead. I had figured he may sit just behind the leaders. Making his first start since the Kentucky Derby the first weekend in May, going 1-1/8 mile off this layoff and facing older horses for the first time I thought he ran a great race. He led throughout, fought off a challenge in the stretch and only faded shortly before the wire. If this had been a 1 mile or 1-1/16 mile race he very much could have won. Hats off to this colt and depending on his placement he'll probably be a good bet next out, esp. if he shortens up just a little.
Breeders' Cup Thoughts
I haven't begun any serious handicapping and these selections are by no means final, but here are a few of my thoughts at this point. More to come next week...
Breeders Cup Classic
Game on Dude - At this point I have to go with most and say he is the horse to beat. I thought he could have won last year and this year he is running on a track that he loves, should play to his speed, gets a top jockey (not that Chantal didn't give him some good rides or wasn't a top jockey) and you know Baffert will have him ready. Plus, he showed last out he doesn't need the lead to win, just keep him within striking distance. At this point I'd have to say he is my pick, though that is subject to change.
Mucho Macho Man - Again, if you know me you know I really like this horse, always have. I thought he ran a really good Woodward, but I would have liked to see him get by To Honor and Serve. He seems to have been working great since then, so the jury is still out. Has an upset chance.
Ron the Greek - Stole the "Big Cap" while "the Dude" was away in Dubai and he beat Wise Dan in the Stephen Foster (though admittedly it was not Wise Dan's best race). He's proven he can win at Santa Anita which I like. But he's going to need someone to press pace early for him to get by Game on Dude and he was flat in the Gold Cup. Has an upset chance.
Fort Larned - I really liked this horse in the Whitney, did run bad in the Gold Cup. But I would liked to have seen him win the Gold Cup against a few that are running back in the BC Classic. Definitely a horse to use in the exotics, with some small upset chance.
Royal Delta - Definitely fits with these, but I think she'll run in the Distaff (aka Ladies Classic).
To Honor and Serve - Good when a shows up, a money burner when he doesn't. Definitely a horse to use in the exotics. Held off Mucho Macho Man in the Woodward and he'll need that same effort (and a little more) to win. Was flat in the Kelso, but Mott obviously knows how to prepare for the Breeders' Cup. With that said Drosslemeyer was moving forward last year, not sure I can say them same about To Honor and Serve.
Flat Out - I'm really not sure what to make of him at this point other than he loves Belmont where he won his last 3 wins have come. Don't like him to win, but definitely an exotics horse.
Breeders' Cup Turf Mile
Wise Dan - This horse has consistently shown he is on top of his game and would be a possible single if not for the Euro.
Excelebration - A Euro in a Breeders' Cup turf race - always dangerous and likely winner.
Animal Kingdom - To me this is the most interesting entry in both days of racing. Graham Motion always places his horse well, but this is ambitious. Still, plenty of horses have won off the layoff and he is a Kentucky Derby winner who likes the turf and should offer some value - you don't get that often. I think he has a real chance here, especially to complete the exacta, if not the trifecta.
Obviously - Good in his last out. Don't see him getting over the top 3. Trifecta horse.
Little Mike - Don't like him to win, but I will not let him beat me in the Trifecta.
Trailblazer - A good showing in this last out. Exotics use.
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Shackleford - An easy winner with his best form, but that is in question. Still, the track should play to his liking.
Emcee - Always gives an honest effort and could pick up the pieces if Shackleford decides he'd rather go back to the barn and graze.
Nonios - A good stalking second last out. Shortening up, so definitely a possibility, esp. if he moves forward.
Jersey Town - Won last out, but I don't like him here. Too much of a hit and miss horse, and in the Breeders' Cup you have to bring your best.
Rail Trip - Good use for value in your exotics.
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
California Flag - Seriously, how do you bet against this 8 yr old? He may not be in as good of shape as 2009, but he loves the downhill course.
Breeders' Cup Sprint
Coil - Proves he deserves a solid look after gamely winning his last out. He's a speedy horse and has a real shot here, still I think the distance maybe a little short for him.
Amazombie - If he shows up he should handle these with ease, but after his last out that ability is in questions and he maybe a good bet against in the win category.
Capital Account - Good second in prep, an upset chance if Amazombie doesn't fire.
Emcee - Fits here if doesn't run in Dirt Mile. An upset chance if Amazombie doesn't fire.
Trinniberg - Has not been as good in his last starts, but the track my play to his speed and thus a good exotics option.
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Groupie Doll - Very likely the best single in the Breeders' Cup.
Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic
Royal Delta - Definitely the best if runs here. There are some in here with an upset chance, but I'd lean heavily on this one.
Awesome Feather - 10 for 10, one on the short list for an upset chance in here.
Questing - Good, but may not be good enough for the two above. Still had a great performance at Saratoga other than drifting. Could very well complete exacta.
My Miss Aurelia - Another solid contender, see her likely to fill out exotics. Has been managed well, upset chance.
More to come next week...
Friday, October 12, 2012
Laurel Park - 10-12-2012 Selections Pick 4 Races 6-9
Updated for Scratches.
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 6 - 1mi Claiming - Action
A - #4 Heron Lake (7/2) - interesting Zito shows up here, has beaten better, good speed
B - #5 Lemon Juice (4-1) - trainer 35% first claim, good post for style - Third
C - #1a Citizen Kat (5/2) - has been racing against better, forgive last out on sly track
D - #8 Behemoth (4-1) - beyer #'s fit here, has won at distance and Lrl - Second
E - #7 Black Bullett (6-1) - has won at Lrl & 2 for 6 at distance - Winner
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4,5/4,5,1 = $4
Pick 4 - Races 6,7,8,9
$0.50 - 4,5,1a / 4,6,8,9 / 7,3 / 10,2,11 = $36
Race 7 - 6f Md Sp Wght TURF - Action
A - #8 Make Em See Red (5-1) - like the speed here, won last out against this level but was dq'd - Third
B - #4 Ebony Street (10-1) - some trouble in recent, cutting back in distance, S. Russell on the turf
C - #6 Homestead (3-1) - could easily be best in here, but first time sprinting, trainer 16-0 Turf sprints
D - #9 Bonjour Belle (4-1) - has potential to sit a really good trip - Second
E - #12 I Am Iron Woman (8-1) - has closed well in both races, but may not get pace help here
Suggested Plays:
$2 Win #8 (if odds 5-1 or higher)
$1 - 6,4/6,4,2 = $4
- OR -
$1 - 6,4,2/6,4,2 = $6
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$0.50 - 4,6,8,9 / 7,3 / 10,2,11 = $12
Race 8 - 6f Alw - Play
A - #7 Bravo Romeo (7/5) - trainer 1st claim 35%, beat open claiming last out, good post for style - Second
B - #3 Service for Ten (7/2) - off layoff, but has a solid work tab, trainer 24% at +180 days off, has speed - Winner
C - #5 Bayou Bengal (12-1) - speed, has won at Lrl, value - Third
D - #6 Rocky Gap (6-1) - off layoff may need a race, runs well at Lrl
E - #2 Medaglia's Express (4-1) - has some poor dirt #'s in past and moving up in class, still may fill out trifecta
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 7,3/7,3,5/7,3,5,6,2 = $12 - Hit $23.00
$0.50 - 7,3/2,6/7,3,5 = $4
Race 9 - 5-1/2f OC TURF - Action
A - #10 Hold Our Destiny (9/2) - good speed for distance - Winner $13.40
B - #2 Backyard Boogie (6-1) - 3 of 4 in money at distance, Russell will need to figure good trip
C - #11 Political Pupil (7/2) - class drop, may sit a good trip if not wide, serious contender
D - #9 Heart of Rome (10-1) - has been wide in recent outs, definite possible to fill out exotics
E - #8 Holiday Road Girl (8-1) - Smith is 20% with 2yr olds, always respect him
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 10,2/10,2,11 = $4
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 6 - 1mi Claiming - Action
A - #4 Heron Lake (7/2) - interesting Zito shows up here, has beaten better, good speed
B - #5 Lemon Juice (4-1) - trainer 35% first claim, good post for style - Third
C - #1a Citizen Kat (5/2) - has been racing against better, forgive last out on sly track
D - #8 Behemoth (4-1) - beyer #'s fit here, has won at distance and Lrl - Second
E - #7 Black Bullett (6-1) - has won at Lrl & 2 for 6 at distance - Winner
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4,5/4,5,1 = $4
Pick 4 - Races 6,7,8,9
$0.50 - 4,5,1a / 4,6,8,9 / 7,3 / 10,2,11 = $36
Race 7 - 6f Md Sp Wght TURF - Action
A - #8 Make Em See Red (5-1) - like the speed here, won last out against this level but was dq'd - Third
B - #4 Ebony Street (10-1) - some trouble in recent, cutting back in distance, S. Russell on the turf
C - #6 Homestead (3-1) - could easily be best in here, but first time sprinting, trainer 16-0 Turf sprints
D - #9 Bonjour Belle (4-1) - has potential to sit a really good trip - Second
E - #12 I Am Iron Woman (8-1) - has closed well in both races, but may not get pace help here
Suggested Plays:
$2 Win #8 (if odds 5-1 or higher)
$1 - 6,4/6,4,2 = $4
- OR -
$1 - 6,4,2/6,4,2 = $6
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$0.50 - 4,6,8,9 / 7,3 / 10,2,11 = $12
Race 8 - 6f Alw - Play
A - #7 Bravo Romeo (7/5) - trainer 1st claim 35%, beat open claiming last out, good post for style - Second
B - #3 Service for Ten (7/2) - off layoff, but has a solid work tab, trainer 24% at +180 days off, has speed - Winner
C - #5 Bayou Bengal (12-1) - speed, has won at Lrl, value - Third
D - #6 Rocky Gap (6-1) - off layoff may need a race, runs well at Lrl
E - #2 Medaglia's Express (4-1) - has some poor dirt #'s in past and moving up in class, still may fill out trifecta
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 7,3/7,3,5/7,3,5,6,2 = $12 - Hit $23.00
$0.50 - 7,3/2,6/7,3,5 = $4
Race 9 - 5-1/2f OC TURF - Action
A - #10 Hold Our Destiny (9/2) - good speed for distance - Winner $13.40
B - #2 Backyard Boogie (6-1) - 3 of 4 in money at distance, Russell will need to figure good trip
C - #11 Political Pupil (7/2) - class drop, may sit a good trip if not wide, serious contender
D - #9 Heart of Rome (10-1) - has been wide in recent outs, definite possible to fill out exotics
E - #8 Holiday Road Girl (8-1) - Smith is 20% with 2yr olds, always respect him
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 10,2/10,2,11 = $4
Saturday, October 6, 2012
Laurel Park - 10-6-2012 Maryland Million Classic Selections
Updated for Scratches.
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 10 - 1-1/8mi Maryland Million Classic Stakes - Play
A - #3 Eighttofasttocatch (9/5) - could be easily the best if Russell can work a good trip, loves Lrl & the 1-1/8mi
B - #2 Not Abroad (2-1) - not without a chance, but he'll be chasing Eighttofasttocatch
C - #6 Tujoes (6-1) - seems to be rounding into form, should get a good trip and laying close, definite exotics use
D - #4 Cactus Charlie (4-1) - a good closer, but he is going to need some pace help which he may not get here
E - #1 Regal Warrior (8-1) - coming off a long layoff, has gotten in some good works, at his very best he fits here
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 3,2/3,2,6/3,2,6 = $8
$1 - 3,2/3,2,6/4,1 = $8
$2 - 6/3,2 = $4
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 10 - 1-1/8mi Maryland Million Classic Stakes - Play
A - #3 Eighttofasttocatch (9/5) - could be easily the best if Russell can work a good trip, loves Lrl & the 1-1/8mi
B - #2 Not Abroad (2-1) - not without a chance, but he'll be chasing Eighttofasttocatch
C - #6 Tujoes (6-1) - seems to be rounding into form, should get a good trip and laying close, definite exotics use
D - #4 Cactus Charlie (4-1) - a good closer, but he is going to need some pace help which he may not get here
E - #1 Regal Warrior (8-1) - coming off a long layoff, has gotten in some good works, at his very best he fits here
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 3,2/3,2,6/3,2,6 = $8
$1 - 3,2/3,2,6/4,1 = $8
$2 - 6/3,2 = $4
Santa Anita - 10-6-2012 Selections
Pre Scratches. I will update the plays once the scratches come out.
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 3 - 1mi Arroyo Seco Mile TURF G2 - Play
A - #3 Obviously (1/1) - seems to be the lone speed in race, has proven can win with that style at distance
B - #1 Mr. Commons (8/5) - works suggest ready, will need to work out trip from post, and will have to run down lone speed
C - #5 Midnight Interlude (8-1) - have always like this horse on the turf (his preferred surface), don't think he'll win but good for exotics
D - #2 Trailblazer (5-1) - this horse is a huge question mark, could very well upset these
E - #4 Kettle Corn (6-1) - somethings to like here, but I think top 2 are much better
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 3,1/3,1/5 = $4
$1 - 3,1/3,1/2,4 = $4
$1 - 3,1/5,2,4/3,1 = $6
Race 8 - 6f SA Sprint Championship G1 - Action
A - #2 Amazombie (9/5) - could easily be best here, but is vulnerable, does love this distance
B - #7 Reneesgotzip (6-1) - has a lot of gate speed which should server her well here
C - #4 Camp Victory (9/2) - the only hose in here to beat Amazombie, will be waiting for front runners to come back
D - #3 Coil (4-1) - Baffert adds blinkers and I find it interesting that he places him here, must be doing well
E - #5 Capital Account (3-1) - should sit a good stalking trip, but still a cut below Amazombie if Amazombie runs his best
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 2/7,4/7,4,3 = $8
$1 - 2/7,4/5 = $2
$1 - 2/3,5/7,4 = $4
$2 - 7,4/2 = $4
Friday, October 5, 2012
Keeneland - 10-6-2012 Race 9 Shadewell Turf Mile Selections
Pre Scratches. I will update the plays once the scratches come out.
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 9 - 1mi Shadwell Turf Mile G1 - Play
A - #5 Wise Dan (4/5) - may need to stalk here, but seems easily the best even w/o regular rider
B - #2 Doubles Partner (6-1) - with lots of speed should stalk well, but will need good position, works suggest ready
C - #7 Data Link (8-1) - a consistent closer, speed in the race should help
D - #3 Corporate Jungle (12-1) - ran a good FourStarDave, but no match for wise day
E - #10 Silver Max (8-1) - speed horse and may likely make the lead, how far will he fade is question, works suggest read
Suggested Plays:
Going to play Trifecta's here for value since Wise Dan will be a short price.
$2 - 5/2,7/2,7 = $4
$1 - 5/2,7/3,10 = $4
$0.50 = 5/3,10/2,7,3,10 = $3
$0.50 = 5/2,7/8,11,12 = $3
$0.50 = 2,7/2,7,5/2,7,5,3,10 = $6
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 9 - 1mi Shadwell Turf Mile G1 - Play
A - #5 Wise Dan (4/5) - may need to stalk here, but seems easily the best even w/o regular rider
B - #2 Doubles Partner (6-1) - with lots of speed should stalk well, but will need good position, works suggest ready
C - #7 Data Link (8-1) - a consistent closer, speed in the race should help
D - #3 Corporate Jungle (12-1) - ran a good FourStarDave, but no match for wise day
E - #10 Silver Max (8-1) - speed horse and may likely make the lead, how far will he fade is question, works suggest read
Suggested Plays:
Going to play Trifecta's here for value since Wise Dan will be a short price.
$2 - 5/2,7/2,7 = $4
$1 - 5/2,7/3,10 = $4
$0.50 = 5/3,10/2,7,3,10 = $3
$0.50 = 5/2,7/8,11,12 = $3
$0.50 = 2,7/2,7,5/2,7,5,3,10 = $6
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Laurel Park - Fri 10-5-2012 Selections Races 2,6,7,8,9
Updated for Scratches.
Pick 4 Races 6,7,8,9 - Post Time 3:37pm
Pick 3 Races 7,8,9 - Post Time 4:07pm
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 2 - 6f sAlw - Play
A - #6 Graysonia (1/1) - good post, lots of trouble last out, has beaten better - Second
B - #2 Gangsterontherun (4-1) - 3 for 4 at distance, will likely not get clear lead, speed - Winner
C - #3 Yano (8-1) - Slight class drop, has run well at distance, should stalk & speed in race will help
D - #4 Candy Games (8-1) - speed, slight class drop, should hang around for exotics
E - #5 Chac Mool (9/2) - speed, but think others seem better - Third
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 6/2,3,4/2,3,4,5 = $9
Race 6 - 1mi Claiming - Action
A - #4 Katniss Everdeen (4-1) - change of style, showed speed last out
B - #5 Jungle Princess (5-1) - class drop, could go for lead, good breeding, Ness
C - #10 Theatricality (6/5) - may need a race - Second
D - #7 Domestic Rose (15-1) - always closes
E - #6 Ten Hat Tricks (20-1) - showed can close well last out
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4,5/4,5,10,7 = $6
Pick 4 - Races 6,7,8,9
$0.50 - 4,5,10 / 13,10,1a / 2,3,5 / 5,6,3 = $40.50
- OR -
$0.50 - 4,5,10 / 13,10,1a ,8 / 2,3,5 / 5,6,3 = $54
Race 7 - 5-1/2f OC TURF - Action
A - #13 Sounds of the City (7/2) - Will need a little pace help, but should get it, may get caught wide, lots of class vs these - Winner $6.40
B - #10 Nice Stuff (5-1) - A. Dutrow & S. Russell 67% at Lrl and 40% overall, lots of class, always closes
C - #8 Kitten Love (8-1) - Lots of gate speed, but always seems to fade
D - #1a Dakota Sis (10-1) - 1st out in 2012, but has some gate speed, may need a race, Ness 33% +180 days - Third
E - #12 Perfect Measure (20-1) - Can be in the mix if runs to best, interesting that Smith places horse here - Second
Suggested Plays:
$1 -13,10/13,10,8,1a,12 = $8 - Hit $117.30
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$0.50 - 13,10,1a / 2,3,5 / 5,6,3 = $13.50
- OR -
$0.50 - 13,10,1a ,8 / 2,3,5 / 5,6,3 = $18
Race 8 - 1-1/16mi Alw - Action
A - #2 Gypsy Baron (5-1) - Has shot for easy lead
B - #3 Easton Jack (8/5) - May contest for lead or stalk, has potential to be easily the best - Third
C - #5 Jazz Age (5-1) - Class drop, should get a good trip
D - #6 Senor Quickie (6-1) - Has run well on Dirt in the past - Second
E - #4 Siegfried (9/2) - Runs well at Lrl, will need some pace help, but good Exacta/Trifecta horse - Winner
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 2,3/2,3,5 = $8
$1 - 2,3/6,4 = $4
Race 9 - 6f OC - Action
A - #5 Exclusive Warrior (4-1) - There if speed collapses - Winner $8.00
B - #6 Hurricane Girl (2-1) - Lots of speed, could easily win here if speed holds
C - #3 Our Year (5/2) - Another speed horse that is 50% at this distance
D - #7 Majestic Samurai (6-1) - Maybe off form as of late, but best puts her in the mix here - Second
E - #1 Cryptocandiac (10-1) - Possibility to fill out Trifecta
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 5,6/5,6 = $4
$1 - 5,6/3,7 = $4 - Hit $22.40
- OR -
$1 - 5,6/5,6,3/5,6,3,7,1 = $12
Pick 4 Races 6,7,8,9 - Post Time 3:37pm
Pick 3 Races 7,8,9 - Post Time 4:07pm
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 2 - 6f sAlw - Play
A - #6 Graysonia (1/1) - good post, lots of trouble last out, has beaten better - Second
B - #2 Gangsterontherun (4-1) - 3 for 4 at distance, will likely not get clear lead, speed - Winner
C - #3 Yano (8-1) - Slight class drop, has run well at distance, should stalk & speed in race will help
D - #4 Candy Games (8-1) - speed, slight class drop, should hang around for exotics
E - #5 Chac Mool (9/2) - speed, but think others seem better - Third
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 6/2,3,4/2,3,4,5 = $9
Race 6 - 1mi Claiming - Action
A - #4 Katniss Everdeen (4-1) - change of style, showed speed last out
B - #5 Jungle Princess (5-1) - class drop, could go for lead, good breeding, Ness
C - #10 Theatricality (6/5) - may need a race - Second
D - #7 Domestic Rose (15-1) - always closes
E - #6 Ten Hat Tricks (20-1) - showed can close well last out
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4,5/4,5,10,7 = $6
Pick 4 - Races 6,7,8,9
$0.50 - 4,5,10 / 13,10,1a / 2,3,5 / 5,6,3 = $40.50
- OR -
$0.50 - 4,5,10 / 13,10,1a ,8 / 2,3,5 / 5,6,3 = $54
Race 7 - 5-1/2f OC TURF - Action
A - #13 Sounds of the City (7/2) - Will need a little pace help, but should get it, may get caught wide, lots of class vs these - Winner $6.40
B - #10 Nice Stuff (5-1) - A. Dutrow & S. Russell 67% at Lrl and 40% overall, lots of class, always closes
C - #8 Kitten Love (8-1) - Lots of gate speed, but always seems to fade
D - #1a Dakota Sis (10-1) - 1st out in 2012, but has some gate speed, may need a race, Ness 33% +180 days - Third
E - #12 Perfect Measure (20-1) - Can be in the mix if runs to best, interesting that Smith places horse here - Second
Suggested Plays:
$1 -13,10/13,10,8,1a,12 = $8 - Hit $117.30
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$0.50 - 13,10,1a / 2,3,5 / 5,6,3 = $13.50
- OR -
$0.50 - 13,10,1a ,8 / 2,3,5 / 5,6,3 = $18
Race 8 - 1-1/16mi Alw - Action
A - #2 Gypsy Baron (5-1) - Has shot for easy lead
B - #3 Easton Jack (8/5) - May contest for lead or stalk, has potential to be easily the best - Third
C - #5 Jazz Age (5-1) - Class drop, should get a good trip
D - #6 Senor Quickie (6-1) - Has run well on Dirt in the past - Second
E - #4 Siegfried (9/2) - Runs well at Lrl, will need some pace help, but good Exacta/Trifecta horse - Winner
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 2,3/2,3,5 = $8
$1 - 2,3/6,4 = $4
Race 9 - 6f OC - Action
A - #5 Exclusive Warrior (4-1) - There if speed collapses - Winner $8.00
B - #6 Hurricane Girl (2-1) - Lots of speed, could easily win here if speed holds
C - #3 Our Year (5/2) - Another speed horse that is 50% at this distance
D - #7 Majestic Samurai (6-1) - Maybe off form as of late, but best puts her in the mix here - Second
E - #1 Cryptocandiac (10-1) - Possibility to fill out Trifecta
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 5,6/5,6 = $4
$1 - 5,6/3,7 = $4 - Hit $22.40
- OR -
$1 - 5,6/5,6,3/5,6,3,7,1 = $12
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