Get ready for the Preakness Stakes with our Preakness Stats Guide. Packed full of stats and analysis to help you include and exclude horses in the second leg of the Triple Crown.
The 2014 Kentucky Derby is in the books and I'm always amazed at how quickly this weekend comes around each year and how quickly it goes by. Below is my analysis of the race and a look towards the Preakness Stakes.
Running Time - The running time of 2:03.66 for the 2014 Kentucky Derby was the slowest on a fast track in the last 20 years. On our par rating scale California Chrome would have earned just a 90, well below his Derby Prep races. It will be interesting to hear if the speed figure guys think the track was playing slow. Here is what I think about the time of this years race. All of the 1/4, 1/2 and 3/4 mile splits were slower than the 20 year average on a fast track. And remember, California Chrome was not setting the pace, he was stalking it, which means he was choosing to go as slow as the leaders and obviously he had plenty left in the tank thru the stretch. When they run that much slower thru the opening 3/4 miles, it makes it tougher to run a fast time. What is a little odd is the closing 1/2 mile. The 20 year average on a fast track for the Derby is 50.84, California Chrome ran it in 51.86 - a full second slower. That closing 1/2 mile is the second slowest in the last 20 years, next to I'll Have Another in 2012. But, the opening 3/4 mile time in 2012 was 2 seconds faster than this year. In the end, California Chrome just had to run fast enough to beat the other horses and he has already proven he can run above par in his prep races. It also wouldn't surprise me to hear the track was playing a little slow.
California Chrome - Broke sharp enough to establish a decent position. For a moment I thought he may grab the lead, but Espinoza eased him back into a stalking position. He was able to work himself to the outside and in the clear down the backstretch. He stayed 3 wide on the second turn and easily pulled away from the field when asked. Knowing he had the race won, Espinoza just showed him the stick and hand rode him through the stretch. He even geared him down just before the wire. He should love the Pimlico track and there are some strong statistics on Santa Anita Derby runners in the Preakness. I don't see any horses at this point that can beat him in the Preakness.
Danza - I thought Danza had a trip excuse. He got nailed by a horse coming over a shortly after the break. Then in the stretch he seemed to be all over the place looking for clear running room. He did well to get up for 3rd. I don't think Todd Pletcher will run him back in the Preakness, but chose instead to wait for the Belmont. That has seemed to be his M.O. the last few years, but I can't blame him here as I think the Belmont will fit Danza's style.
Wicked Strong - I thought he finished ok and he didn't get much pace to run into. Seems like a Belmont horse.
Wildcat Red - Was taken out of his game when he was unable to be forwardly place. He is a much better horse that what he showed in the Derby. I hope his connections run him back in the Preakness. I think it will suit his running style and less horses will help him get a better position. With finishing so far back in the Kentucky Derby he should be a decent price in the Preakness with a good shot to hit the board. I don't think he can beat California Chrome, but he could be a good exotics boost in the range of 10 or 15 to 1.
These were the horses that stood out to me the most. I may write up some more horses after I watch the race a few more times.
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