Saturday, September 8, 2012

Laurel Park - Saturday 9-7-2012 Selections

I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is always my winner.  See the key below for how I label the races. 

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race.  Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.  Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race.  Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets 

Race 1 - 5-1/2f Maiden Claiming - Weak
Likely winner and exacta is amongst the top 4.  I like the #3 hoping for an easy lead.  However, I don't think this is a good race to bet.  Maybe just a win bet on #3.
A - #3 Healy Honey - Could get an easy lead
B - #5 Fancy Attitude - Good speed #'s, running style may hurt - Winner
C - #1 Seekthe Wild - Shot if decides to run to best - Third
D - #1a Yoshi's Cat - First time starter with a good shot, trainer has good %'s with this type
E - #6 El Rey's Reina - Needed a 5th horse.

Suggested Plays:
Just a token win on #3.

Race 2 - 5-1/2f Claiming - Action
A - #2 Medieval Cat - Class of race, will need to get good position early - Second
B - #3 Marataya's Tune - Trouble in recent starts, could show speed
C - #6 Morada Choice - Will definitely show speed with a good post, but layoff is concern
D - #4 Nag Nag Nag - Should be laying close to speed
E - #5 Great Motion - Good post for off pace style, but not a lot of speed in race - Third

Suggested Plays: 
$2 - 2/3
$1 - 3/2
$1 - 2,6/2,6


Race 3 - 6f Maiden Claiming - Play
I think #7 is very likely the winner here.
A - #7 Star Lookout - Closed well last out, lost to very impressive horse - Second
B - #3 Hero's Nation - Forgive last out
C - #4 Broadruns Jewell - Good trainner #'s with Maidens & first starters, good last work
D - #8 Marry Me Do - Good post, always like Sheldon Russell - Winner
E - #1 Gentle as a Breeze - Class drop, has race experience

Suggested Plays:
$2 - 7/3,4
$1 - 7/8


Race 4 - 1 mile Maiden Claiming - Action
A - #8 No Peeking - Speed drawn outside
B - #4 Imsobold - Has shown some williingness to run - Third
C - #5 Buffy - Closed the gap last out - Second
D - #7 Work It Out - May could fill out Trifecta
E - #
6 Gold Lark - May could fill out Trifecta
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 8,4/8,4
$1 - 8,5/8,5


Race 5 - 5-1/2f Turf Claiming - Action
A - #4 Fearsome - Has speed, good trainer %'s - Winner $6.00
B - #12 Public Secret - Good speed #'s
C - #8 Cash Bear - Runs well, like post
D - #3 Black River - Has speed - Third
E - #5 Just Bearable - Could sit and wait or show speed

Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4/12,8
$1 - 12,8/4

Race 6 - 7f Claiming - Action/Play
I like the #2 if Navarro puts her on the lead.  Could be lone speed in race.
A - #2 My Darling Miss - Could be lone speed
B - #7 Let's Get Lucky - Seems the class of the race - Winner
C - #8 Stone Maiden - Likes Laurel, like the outside post for a good trip
D - #6 Tutu's Angel - Class drop, has run well at distance
E - #4 Dream Every Dream - Class drop, good speed #'s, but will running style hurt? - Third

Suggested Plays:
$2 - 2,7/2,7 = $4
$1 - 2,7/8 = $2
- OR - 
$1 - 2,7/2,7,8/2,7,8,6,4 = $12

Race 7 - 5-1/2f Turf OC - Weak
Would love #13 if not on the outside, still she may be the best in here, but not willing to count on it.
A - #6 Clapifyoubelieve - Good speed and trainer has good #'s
B - #10 Backyard Boogie - Class drop, has speed, post should help - Second
C - #13 Jewel of a Cat - Seems the best here, but worried will be caught wide - Winner
D - #2 Touring Hong Kong - Like last work, may have to go early with post - Third
E - #8 Wisestar - Class drop

Suggested Plays:
Pick 4 - Races 7,8,9,10 - I've included 4 tickets at different amounts to suit your style of play.
$0.50 - 6,10,13/8,9/3,5/7,10,9 = $18
- OR -
$0.50 - 6,10,13,2/8,9/3,5/7,10,9,1,5 = $50
- OR -
$0.50 - 6,10,13,2/8,9/3,5,2/7,10,9,1,5 = $60


Race 8 - 1 mile Claiming - Play
I think #8 is the best here with a good post to avoid traffic.
A - #8 Citizen Kat - Nice class drop, seems the best, always have to respect Ness
B - #9 Who Dat Boy - Class drop, can close well, likes Laurel & distance, but could be wide
C - #6 Outbacker - Some speed, good class drop
D - #2 Ram - Good speed #'s
E - #
4 Jazz Age - Class drop, but is coming off layoff - Third
Suggested Plays:
Pick 3 - Races 8,9,10
$0.50 - 8,9,6/3,5/7,10,9,1,5 = $15

 
Exacta & Trifecta Bets
$2 - 8/9,6 = $4
$1 - 8/2,4 = $2
$1 - 9/8 =$1
- OR -
$1 - 8/9,6,2/9,6,2,4 = $9 

Race 9 - 6f OC - Play
Really like #3 to win here.
A - #3 Regal Solo - Class of race, seems ready to fire big, pace would help - Winner $6.20
B - #5 Trapezium Star - Speed, loves the MUD esp. at Laurel - Third
C - #2 Tomorrow's Tale - Some speed, longshot - Second
D - #6 Mass Destruction - Class drop, runs well
E - #
7 Adirondack King - Class drop, good horse, but may need a race coming off the layoff
Suggested Plays:
Pick 3 - Races 9,10,11
$0.50 - 3,5,2/7,10,9,1,5/10,6,8
= $22.50 could remove #8 in race 11 or #2 in race 9 for $15 ticket)

Exacta & Trifecta Bets
$2 - 3/5,2 = $4 / Hit $22.40
$1 - 3/6,7 = $2
$1 - 5/3,2 =$2
- OR -
$1 - 3,5/3,5,2/3,5,2,6,7 = $12 / Hit $33.60  (or $1 - 3/5,2/5,2,6,7 = $6 with $1 - 5/3,2 = $2 Exacta saver to save money)


Race 10 - 1-1/16 mile Turf Stakes - Action
I have a lot less clarity in here with the scratch of #4 Tonto Fontenot.  Lots of closers in here, with a few speed horses.  Should be a cavalry charge to the wire, if the speed fades in time.
A - #7 See Tobe - Another consistent closer - Winner $17.80
B - #10 Action Andy - Speed drawn outside, how much will fade is the question
C - #9 Dannhauser - By speed #'s he doesn't belong, but this horse is always game, pace would help - Third
D - #1 El Commodore - Speed, but seems off form lately
E - #5 London Lane - Likes Laurel and distance

Suggested Plays:
$1 - 7,10/7,10,9,1 = $6

Race 11 - 5-1/2f Turf Md Sp Wght - Play  OFF TURF
I'd disregard these plays with it coming off the turf.
A - #10 Make Em See Red - Very much the best, wide is concerning, has speed
B - #6 Abigail Adams - Looking to move forward here, racing in same class
C - #8 I Am Iron Woman - Good trainer #'s, good post - Second
D - #5 Cherubina
- Sheldon Russell riding in a maiden turf race, trainer good with 1stW/Trn #'s
E - #4 Fridays Gift - May move forward here - Winner

Suggested Plays:  
$1 - 10/6,5,8,4 = $4
- OR -
$1 - 10/6,5,8,4/6,5,8,4 = $12 (or $1 - 10/6,5,8/6,5,8,4 = $9 to save money)


 

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