Belmont - Bold Ruler Stakes
Caixa Eletronica - If you know me, you konw I love this horse. I thought he seemed like he was running a little flat on the backstretch. He tried to put together a bid, but then faded badly. We'll see how he comes out of this and he has bounced back off poor finishes in the past
Laurel Park - Laurel Turf Cup Stakes
Dannhauser - First of all I want apologize to my followers for not handicapping this weekend. I felt like Dannhauser was moving forward and thought he ran a sneaky good race in the Japan Racing Association Stakes, plus he had a great win before that at Colonial coming from well off the pace. And, Sheldon Russell on the turf must always be considered. Just glancing at the entries I liked See Tobe first, with Dannhauser second. Luckily, Sheldon found room on the inside and Dannhauser fired in his usual fashion.
See Tobe - Another good effort, but Dannhauser got the jump on him this time with a rail saving trip. Unlike in the Japan Racing Association Stakes where Dannhauser closed from further back.
Keeneland - Fayette Stakes
Take Charge Indy - Borel and Pat Byrne must have had a lot of confidence in this horse, because they sent him hard from the gate to make the lead. I had figured he may sit just behind the leaders. Making his first start since the Kentucky Derby the first weekend in May, going 1-1/8 mile off this layoff and facing older horses for the first time I thought he ran a great race. He led throughout, fought off a challenge in the stretch and only faded shortly before the wire. If this had been a 1 mile or 1-1/16 mile race he very much could have won. Hats off to this colt and depending on his placement he'll probably be a good bet next out, esp. if he shortens up just a little.
Breeders' Cup Thoughts
I haven't begun any serious handicapping and these selections are by no means final, but here are a few of my thoughts at this point. More to come next week...
Breeders Cup Classic
Game on Dude - At this point I have to go with most and say he is the horse to beat. I thought he could have won last year and this year he is running on a track that he loves, should play to his speed, gets a top jockey (not that Chantal didn't give him some good rides or wasn't a top jockey) and you know Baffert will have him ready. Plus, he showed last out he doesn't need the lead to win, just keep him within striking distance. At this point I'd have to say he is my pick, though that is subject to change.
Mucho Macho Man - Again, if you know me you know I really like this horse, always have. I thought he ran a really good Woodward, but I would have liked to see him get by To Honor and Serve. He seems to have been working great since then, so the jury is still out. Has an upset chance.
Ron the Greek - Stole the "Big Cap" while "the Dude" was away in Dubai and he beat Wise Dan in the Stephen Foster (though admittedly it was not Wise Dan's best race). He's proven he can win at Santa Anita which I like. But he's going to need someone to press pace early for him to get by Game on Dude and he was flat in the Gold Cup. Has an upset chance.
Fort Larned - I really liked this horse in the Whitney, did run bad in the Gold Cup. But I would liked to have seen him win the Gold Cup against a few that are running back in the BC Classic. Definitely a horse to use in the exotics, with some small upset chance.
Royal Delta - Definitely fits with these, but I think she'll run in the Distaff (aka Ladies Classic).
To Honor and Serve - Good when a shows up, a money burner when he doesn't. Definitely a horse to use in the exotics. Held off Mucho Macho Man in the Woodward and he'll need that same effort (and a little more) to win. Was flat in the Kelso, but Mott obviously knows how to prepare for the Breeders' Cup. With that said Drosslemeyer was moving forward last year, not sure I can say them same about To Honor and Serve.
Flat Out - I'm really not sure what to make of him at this point other than he loves Belmont where he won his last 3 wins have come. Don't like him to win, but definitely an exotics horse.
Breeders' Cup Turf Mile
Wise Dan - This horse has consistently shown he is on top of his game and would be a possible single if not for the Euro.
Excelebration - A Euro in a Breeders' Cup turf race - always dangerous and likely winner.
Animal Kingdom - To me this is the most interesting entry in both days of racing. Graham Motion always places his horse well, but this is ambitious. Still, plenty of horses have won off the layoff and he is a Kentucky Derby winner who likes the turf and should offer some value - you don't get that often. I think he has a real chance here, especially to complete the exacta, if not the trifecta.
Obviously - Good in his last out. Don't see him getting over the top 3. Trifecta horse.
Little Mike - Don't like him to win, but I will not let him beat me in the Trifecta.
Trailblazer - A good showing in this last out. Exotics use.
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Shackleford - An easy winner with his best form, but that is in question. Still, the track should play to his liking.
Emcee - Always gives an honest effort and could pick up the pieces if Shackleford decides he'd rather go back to the barn and graze.
Nonios - A good stalking second last out. Shortening up, so definitely a possibility, esp. if he moves forward.
Jersey Town - Won last out, but I don't like him here. Too much of a hit and miss horse, and in the Breeders' Cup you have to bring your best.
Rail Trip - Good use for value in your exotics.
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
California Flag - Seriously, how do you bet against this 8 yr old? He may not be in as good of shape as 2009, but he loves the downhill course.
Breeders' Cup Sprint
Coil - Proves he deserves a solid look after gamely winning his last out. He's a speedy horse and has a real shot here, still I think the distance maybe a little short for him.
Amazombie - If he shows up he should handle these with ease, but after his last out that ability is in questions and he maybe a good bet against in the win category.
Capital Account - Good second in prep, an upset chance if Amazombie doesn't fire.
Emcee - Fits here if doesn't run in Dirt Mile. An upset chance if Amazombie doesn't fire.
Trinniberg - Has not been as good in his last starts, but the track my play to his speed and thus a good exotics option.
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Groupie Doll - Very likely the best single in the Breeders' Cup.
Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic
Royal Delta - Definitely the best if runs here. There are some in here with an upset chance, but I'd lean heavily on this one.
Awesome Feather - 10 for 10, one on the short list for an upset chance in here.
Questing - Good, but may not be good enough for the two above. Still had a great performance at Saratoga other than drifting. Could very well complete exacta.
My Miss Aurelia - Another solid contender, see her likely to fill out exotics. Has been managed well, upset chance.
More to come next week...
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