I'll Have Another was certainly one of about 10 horses who had a legitimate shot to win the Kentucky Derby, though I regret to say I didn't pick him in my first flight of horses. He got a great trip and that is always a huge part of how the Kentucky Derby is won. Here are some of my first thoughts going forward:
Bodemeister - He set some seriously fast fractions and down the backstretch I told my wife he was going to fade badly...that also didn't happen. He turned into the stretch well ahead of the pack and though he tired, he held on gamely for 2nd. To put into perspective how game he was let's take a look at where the first 8 finishers in the derby were at the 1/2 mile call:
I'll Have Another - 7th - 8 lengths off - finished 1st
Dullahan - 11th - 12-1/2 lengths off - finished 3rd
Went the Day Well - 17th - 18-1/2 lengths off - finished 4th
Creative Cause - 10th - 12 lengths off - finished 5th
Liasion - 8th - 10-1/2 lengths off - finished 6th
Union Rags - 18th - 19-1/2 lengths off - finished 7th
Rousing Sermon - 14th - 15 lengths off - finished 8th
The point is self explanatory, nobody who finished in the top 8 was closer than 8 lengths to Bodemeister at the 1/2 mile call! Most of the other speed faded badly. Before the Derby was run I thought Bodemeister would be a good Preakness horse for the way that track plays, but now I'm headed to Baltimore ready to bet him until my pockets are empty!
Union Rags - I couldn't have dreamed up a worse trip for Union Rags, it looked like a train wreck from the start. As soon as they broke I said, "Well, Union Rags just lost!". I don't know what Leparoux could have done different, other than to hurry him out of the gate a little faster. But it is worth noting in that he stayed in trouble well into the 2nd turn and he did close well down the lane. I don't know that he can beat Bodemeister in the Preakness, but with a decent trip I think he can hold his own. After back to back troubled trips, I'm just glad Leparoux is not an air traffic controller!
Creative Cause - For all the talk about him missing 2 days at the track after his workout, I thought Creative Cause gave a good showing of himself finishing 5th beaten just 3 lengths. He was 4 wide on the 2nd turn, but he did seem to flatten late when Went the Day Well passed him. Look for this horse to be a contender in future races.
Dullahan - Handled the dirt just fine I'd say! He'll be a contender in Baltimore, if Romans takes him there, but I don't see him getting the best of Bodemeister either. Also, look for Dullahan to switch back to turf later in the summer, just like Romans did with Paddy O'Prado.
Hansen - Well this was one thing I was right about, he couldn't carry the speed 1-1/4 miles. I still don't think he'll get the best of Bodemeister in the Preakness. But, look for him to be a solid contender in races up to 1-1/16 miles.
I'll Have Another - Had a great trip and closed well down the stretch. He certainly had some pace help in the Derby, but he is a game horse as he showed in the Santa Anita Derby. Look for him to be a contender in the Preakness, but I don't think he will get to Bodemeister.
Preakness Thoughts:
The track has played to speed this year. Extreme on some days and not quite so strong on others. This will aid horses like Bodemeister, Hansen and Union Rags. I think horses will need to sit close to win there.
As soon as the Kentucky Derby was over someone asked me, "Will I'll Have Another win the Triple Crown?" My answer was simply, "No". Mostly because I believe Bodemeister is an overwhelming threat in the Preakness and Union Rags is due a good trip at some point.
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