Churchill Downs 5-5-2012 - Kentucky Derby Day Selections

Good Luck!

Race 1 - 1-1/16 OCSeems a little wide open to me.
1 - #3 Afford
2 - #1 Point Taken
3 - #2 Atigun - Winner
4 - #4 Little Willy
5 - #5 Politicallycorrect - Second
 

Race 6 - 5f Twin Spires Turf Sprint - Turf
1 - #7 Speight the Halo - looking to beat Bridgetown on his 1st out 2012 and catch a price, but need a good break
2 - #4 Bridgetown - class of race, but 1st out 2012 - Second
3 - #10 Great Mills - fast horse, likes distance, 50% win at distance, 6-8 in the money at distance
4 - #2 Great Attack - plenty of speed and bred to for the distance - Winner
5 - #8 Spinning Move
6 - #11 Chamberlain Bridge

Race 7 - 7f Churchill Downs G2
1 - #6 Amazombie - very much the class and speed of the race, plus Mike Smith always scares me.  Has had trouble carrying speed 7 furlongs. - Second
2 - #1 Smiling Tiger - fast, but 1st out 2012
3 - #4 Shackleford - lots of class, but is he as fast as Amazombie?  Could grab the lead if speed fails and we know he is stubborn in the stretch! - Winner
4 - #7 Gantry - Improving in 2012.  Outclassed here, but seems to be as fast as others. Could grab piece of Tri or Ex.
5 - #2 Alma d'Oro - a real wild card, with some trouble recently, but those have been in route races.

Race 11 - 1-1/4mi Kentucky Derby G1  
1 - #15 Gemologist - good post, figures to get first run, esp if Union Rags and Bodemeister have trouble, likes CD track
2 - #6 Bodemeister - could very well prove to be the best horse in race, last work was great.  I do worry about that last Beyer, he earned in on an easy lead, and horses if run big #'s like that rarely repeat if challenged.  Scratch that # and it puts him with in striking range of several horses.. - Second
3 - #4 Union Rags - working great, lots of trouble last out, was the only horse gaining late in that race
4 - #10 Daddy Nose Best - has impressed everyone who has seen him work lately, improving Beyer #'s, style could help
5 - #11 Alpha - bred to run a long ways, seems to be working great, but did miss some training, seems much tighter now
6 - #16 El Padrio - wonder how the FL Derby would have ended if his jockey had gone after TCI on 2nd turn instead of playing games

Horses to possibly include on bottom of Trifecta:
#3 Take Charge Indy - didn't really like FL Derby, but has been training well and if Borel gets room on the rail - that's a big if though
#18 Sabercat - Training and looking good, was close for 2nd in AR Derby, thought beaten 9-3/4 by Bodemeister
#8 Creative Cause - This horse would be in my top 5, but I don't like that he missed 2 days at the track after his workout, plus he tends to get a little distracted in the lane, but if he runs his best he is a serious contender.
#19 I'll Have Another - good horse, but I don't really like the post - Winner

Horses to include on bottom of Superfecta or for value in other plays:
#12 Perspective - training extremely well
#17 Done Talking - if there is a pace melt down, this guy will be coming late and Russell is a great jockey, though I don't think he has a chance to win

Horses you may wonder why I didn't include:
#14 Hansen - worried he will not get the distance and he seemed really rank in his last work, suggesting he could get in a speed duel.  Even if he rates, I still don't know if he can get the distance.
#5 Dullahan - this is a very nice horse, but I'm not sure he'll love the surface and he'll have to clear a LOT of traffic with his style, Desormeaux helps, but still have doubts.  Looking forward to betting him this summer at Colonial Downs if Romans brings him there.