Thursday, May 3, 2012

Churchill Downs 5-4-2012 - Kentucky Oaks Day Selections

These are my selections for Kentucky Oaks day.  Also, I will be posting selections for some Pimlico on both Oaks and Derby day as well.  More to come...

Race 1 - 1 Mile MSW - lots of possibilities here.  Consider it a weak play, wouldn't spend more than a few bucks here.
1 - #
6 - Wine Princess - Figures to get good trip.  Trainer 27% Turf to Dirt.
2 - #2 - Finallyareallady - May like dirt best.  may get easy lead.
3 - #1 - Holiday's Jewel - 1st out 2012.  Has had some trouble in recent starts.
4 - #
3 - Ticket to Broadway
5 - #4 - Haylie Brae

Race 3 - 7f OC 75k
1 - #4 - Young and Lovely - Working like will show speed.
2 - #6 - Ice Cream Silence - May figure to inherit the lead, like post, should move forward
3 - #3 - Malibu Holiday
4 - #5 - Queen Teuta

5 - #7 - Delightful Magic

Race 6 - 1-1/16mi LaTroien G2
1 - #4 - Plum Pretty - seems the best on paper, needs to run same race as OP
2 - #6 - Absinthe Minded - easily 2nd best to Plum Pretty, always shows up
3 - #1 - Afleeting Lady - Like Churchill, training well, needs to move forward
4 - #5 - Juanita

5 - #2 - St. John's River

Race 7 - 7f Eight Belles G3
1 - #7 - Contested - Lots of early speed, her race to lose, could get easy lead
2 - #2 - Small Kitchen - Trouble last out, distance may suit better
3 - #3 - Good Deed - Figures to be near the lead
4 - #4 - Xunlei
- Romans appears to have this one ready to run. Could get 1st run on leaders.5 - #6 - Livi Makenzie

Race 9 - 1-1/16mi Alysheba G2
1 - #4 - Mucho Macho Man - Has beat much better, ran 3rd in Derby here, looks great, have liked this horse since the Triple Crown last year.
2 - #3 - Fort Larned - Figures to pickup pieces of speed horses who fail
3 - #2 - Successful Dan - Due to improve, like Churchill
4 - #1 - Nates Mineshaft
- Horse wins, but will not have easy lead5 - #7 - Apart - Could be another one to pickup pieces of fast pace

Race 11 - 1-1/8mi Kentucky Oaks G1
1 - #8 - Jemima's Pearl - Worked well with Bodemeister, style will help, was making up ground in late stretch in Fantasy
2 - #3 - Summer Applause - Style should help with lots of speed in race, was coming hard late in last out, like Gomez riding from off the pace (ie. Blind Luck)
3 - #2 - Grace Hall - Had an easy trip last out, but had an impressive kick.  Looks & is training great.  Is working forward.  Many think this is the horse to beat.
4 - #9 - Believe You Can
- Like the 4/29 and 4/23 works, final 1/4 mile in 4/29 work was 23-3/5.  Probably under radar and can rate just off pace.
5 - #1 - On Fire Baby - Last 3f of 4/27 7f work was 36-3/5, looks to be doing great, did miss final prep, but likes Churchill.

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