Pre-Order the Triple Crown and 100 point Kentucky Derby Prep Race Guides!
These two guides will contain detailed stats for Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont Stakes and the 100 point Prep Races, plus the Kentucky Oaks. Stats in the guide will include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, our Strike System, Par Ratings and much more! For more information or to Pre-Order go to www.bigdaystats.com.
Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
GP - Race 11 - Fountain of Youth Stakes 1-1/16mi - Play
A - #7 Upstart (8/5) - He is the most likely winner in here. His Holy Bull win was nice and almost all of these will have to move forward to challenge him. Regardless, his 100 par rating last out makes him a great key horse. Those horses run in the Superfecta 84% in this race.
B - #5 Itsaknockout (4-1) - He's 2 for 2 at GP, but is stepping up into stakes company. He fits some high percentage stats, but he still has something to prove. Upset shot.
C - #6 Frosted (5/2) - Was well beaten by Upstart last out and he'll need a major improvement to turn the tables. He fits a few high percentage stats, but I think he is strictly an exotics horse without a major improvement.
D - #4 Gorgeous Bird (6-1) - Like Itsaknockout, he's moving in the right direction. Question is, can he move forward enough. Some questions, but I wouldn't leave him off my tickets.
E - #2 Bluegrass Singer (8-1) - Will likely be the speed of the race, but he folded last out after having things his own way. Maybe he holds on, but I just don't see it versus a lot of the competition he folded to in his last race. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 7,5,6
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 7 / 5,6,4 / 5,6,4 = $6
$0.50 - 7 / 5,6,4,2 / 5,6,4,2 = $6
$0.50 - 5,6,4 / 7 / 5,6,4,2 = $4.50
$0.50 - 5,6,4 / 5,6,4,2 / 7 = $4.50
FG - Race 11 - Risen Star Stakes 1-1/16 miles - Action+
A - #10 International Star (9/2) - Has to wait behind horses well into the stretch last out, but was full of run once clear. Horses that have run a par rating of 100 or greater in any previous Ky Derby Prep have won 50% and occupied at least one spot in the Superfecta 83%. This makes him an excellent key horses. He's 1 for 1 at GP and 2 for 3 at this distance. Win selection.
B - #5 Imperia (7/2) - This loose favorite is looking to win off the bench, like the connections but not sure I want him in the top spot off the layoff. Win chance and exotics use.
C - #6 War Story (5-1) - Couldn't hold off International Star last out and he had every chance. Win chance with a good move forward, definite exotics use.
D - #4 J S Bach (5-1) - Look for him to challenge for the lead, but there is some other speed in here. Want to see him prove it. Exotics.
E - #2 Tiznow R J (5-1) - Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 10,5,6
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 10 / 5,6,4,2 = $4
$1 - 10 / 5,6 / 5,6,4,2 = $6
$0.50 - 10 / 5,6,4,2 / 5,6,4,2 = $6
$0.50 - 5,6,4,2 / 10 / 5,6,4,2 = $6
$0.50 - 5,6,4,2 / 5,6,4,2 / 10 = $6
Good Luck!
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