The 2014 Belmont Stakes is in the books and for a 12th time since 1978 we'll have to wait until next year to see if the Triple Crown races can be won by a single horse. For Belmont Stakes day, they could not have put together a better undercard. Though I was not able to get much going at the windows it was still a great and very enjoyable day of racing - and that was a win for horse racing.
Though California Chrome could not sweep the Triple Crown by winning the Belmont Stakes, his try created a lot of interest in racing. I live in North Carolina which does not allow pari-mutuel wagering on horse racing and thus it is not discussed much in this state. People know that I like horse racing and that my wife and I go to the Preakness every year. Between Friday and Saturday my phone was constantly buzzing from people that know nothing about horse racing, but they wanted to know about California Chrome and what I thought about his chances of winning the Belmont. So many times over the last few days I was able to share the excitement of this sport with people and how enjoyable it is to go to the Preakness, even if you know nothing about betting horses. Lots of people said, "I'd love to go to a race one day!" My standard reply is, "Go to the Preakness! It is the easiest of the Triple Crown races to attend." I'll say it again, what a great day and a win for horse racing, especially with people who watch the Kentucky Derby, but only tune back in if a Triple Crown is on the line.
California Chrome - There is much debate about the ride Espinoza gave California Chrome. In horse racing I look for two things from the jockey - put the horse in contention and give him a clear look at the finish line turning for home. Though he had to come 4 wide on the 2nd turn, California Chrome was in contention turning for home with no traffic issues. For a few seconds it looked like he was going to draw even with the leaders, before he faded some the last 1/16 of a mile. On the 2nd turn he just didn't seem to be moving the same as in the past two races and I told my family that I didn't think he was going to be able to win. But, he dug in and tried to make a race of it, only getting beat 1-3/4 lengths. It was a good effort and once he is rested he should make the second half of the year interesting, especially during the Breeders' Cup. Also, I'm not sure the outcome would have been much different if he had gone to the lead, in fact, he may have finished worse. If he had been on the lead, Commissioner may have pressed him the entire way which may have left him tired for the stretch run. Despite a lot of the trash being typed on forums and blogs, California Chrome is a good horse horse and as long as he stays healthy we'll see him in the winners circle a lot more. Since the start of 2014 he won 5 races in a row before running 4th in the Belmont Stakes. Three of those wins were Grade 1's and one was a Grade 2 - that record says plenty by itself.
Tonalist - For the way I handicap, he was a hard horse for me to envision beating California Chrome or a few others in the field. But, he did something that I respect when I doubt their ability, he won. Hats off to the horse, connections and a great ride by Joel Rosario. He sat a perfect trip, repelled a challenge by California Chrome and got his head down on the wire to beat Commissioner. Though Peter Pan runners have won the Belmont Stakes at just a 13% clip over the last 21 years, the pendulum definitely swung the other way this time with both the exacta spots being filled by Peter Pan runners. Looking forward to seeing this horse run again later in the summer.
Commissioner - I'm not sure if the move to go to the lead was planned, but it was brilliant. From his pedigree we all knew this horse had the potential to run all day, the question was whether he would be fast enough in the stretch to win. By going to the lead, he put himself in a great position to take advantage of his grinding running style. Beaten just a head on the wire by Tonalist, he almost pulled off a major front running upset!
In this years Belmont, 5 horses finished within 2 lengths of the winner. It looked more like a turf race finish than a dirt race. With that close of a finish I believe if they ran this race 10 times, we could have 5-6 different outcomes in the win category. With that said, I'm looking forward to the summertime and fall races. I hope we see a few match-ups from some of these Belmont contenders in future races. Especially, between Tonalist and California Chrome - I think that would be highly entertaining!
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