Saturday, June 14, 2014

6/14 - Churchill Downs & Santa Anita Stakes Races

Updated 6:00pm EST.

Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics. 



Churchill Downs - Stakes Races 6-9

Multirace Bets- 
Daily Double Races 6,7
$2 - 2 / 4 = $2
$1 - 2 / 4,5,6 = $3
$1 - 2,4,6,5,3 / 4 = $5
$1 = 2,4,6 / 4,5,6 = $9

Daily Double Races 7,8
$1 - 4 / 3,4 = $2
$1 - 4,5,6 / 3,4 = $6
$1 - 4 / 3,4,9,1,6 = $5 

Race 6 - 1-1/16mi Matt Winn G3 - Play
A - #2 Tapiture (9/5) - if he runs back to his Southwest and Rebel form, he'll handle these.  He ran decent in the Ky Derby until he hit is distance limitation.  Needs to regain his form, but he's been freshened with a good work pattern and this distance hits him dead between the eyes.  His race to lose.
B - #4 Conquest Titan (10-1) - he needs some pace to run at and it likes favorable for him here.  Looking thru his company lines he's run with some decent horses.  Value on this late closer.
C - #6 The Admiral (8-1) - interesting placement for Baffert, the post should work to his advantage, is taking a step up in class considering the company and stretching out.  Exotics value.
D - #5 Almost Famous (2-1) - likes this course, but seems to be a need the lead type and he figures to get pressure.  Note that last out high Beyer was earned with racing on an uncontested lead, doesn't figure to get that trip here.
E - #3 Rise Up (3-1) - another speed horse, same issue as above that his last out high Beyer was earned on an uncontested lead.

Multi-Race Horses:

A - 2
B - 4,6,5
Suggest Plays:

$2 - 2 / 4,6,5 = $6
$1 - 2 / 3 = $1
$1 - 4,6,5 / 2 = $3

Race 7 - 1-1/8mi Fleur De Lis Handicap G2 - Play
A - #4 On Fire Baby (8/5) - her grade 1 win here on Oaks day was very nice, is the lone grade 1 winner in the field, definitely her race to lose and she could take them all the way on the front end
B - #5 Fiftyshadesofhay (9/5) - on paper appears second best in here and I like the post.  The one thing I love about this horse is her ability to work herself out of trouble and still run down the leaders.
C - #6 Flashy American (7/2) - the obvioius 3rd choice, but she does run well at Cd and this distance
D - #1 Ondine (6-1) - will need to work out a trip, but should lay close enough that she could grab a piece
E - #3 Frivolous (20-1) - the one horse who I think as the potential to add some bottom end exotics value

Multi-Race Horses:

A - 4
B - 5,6
Suggest Plays:

$2 - 4 / 5,6 = $4
$1 - 4 / 5,6,1,3 = $4
$1 - 4,5,6 / 4,5,6 = $6


Race 8 - 1-1/8mi Stephen Foster Handicap G1 - Action+
A - #3 Moonshine Mullin (10-1) - I think this guy could get a favorable pace setup and steal this on the lead, value esp. in the exotics
B - #4 Will Take Charge (5/2)- On his best day he towers over these, but he was very flat last out, going to try to beat him on a pace setup
C - #9 Prayer for Relief (8-1) - ran a good Pimlico Special to lose by a neck, always seems to be hanging around at the finish, good exotics horse
D - #1 Revolutionary (2-1) - I love this horse, but at 2-1 he is an underlay in this race.  It doesn't seem he'll get a favorable pace setup, but I also don't think Mike Smith will have him has far back as he was in the Pimlico Special.  He's a game horse and always puts in a great effort, I just think he is up against it here from a pace perspective, but I wouldn't leave him out of my exotics.
E - #6 Departing (9/2) - I don't think he can win without a step forward and I want to see him prove that first, but he could definitely hit the board.

Multi-Race Horses:

A - 3,4
B - 9,1
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 3,4 / 3,4,9,1,6 = $8
$1 - 9,1 / 3,4 = $4


Race 9 - 1-1/16mi Regret TURF G3 - Action
A - #7 Istanford (9/2) - I like the proven turf ability and she could definitely take them gate to wire
B - #4 A Little Bit Sassy (7/2) - Another one with prove turf ability, should get a nice stalking trip on the inside
C - #6 Aurelia's Belle (6-1) - has not run on the turf before, but has lots of class and her breeding suggest she'll take to the surface ok.  Like the work tab.  May get overlooked a little at the windows.
D - #9 Share the Sugar (6-1) - can close well, had some trouble last out but still got up for the win
E - #1 Kiss Moon (6-1) - no turf experience, but breeding suggest she'll be ok, like the work tab

Multi-Race Horses:

A- 7,4
B- 6,9
C- 1,5,3
Suggest Plays



Santa Anita - Stakes Races 7,8

Race 7 - 1mi Shoemaker Mile TURF G1 - Action+
A - #5 Summer Front (6-1) - plenty of speed in this race could set it up for this closer, figures to get a good trip
B - #1 Obviously (9/5) - needs a clear lead and could very well out run the others to the first turn, still there is plenty of speed in here that could challenge, no doubt the one to beat
C - #7 Silentio (5-1) - should be able to sit a decent trip behind the speed, good exotics horse
D - #4 Winning Prize (5/2) - speed horse, but is 2 for 2 at this distance and 5 out of 6 at Sa, can stalk but I imagine it will be a game time decision based on what a few others in here do.
E - #2 Jack Milton (3-1) - is progressing this year and is 2 out of 3 at this distance, not sure he can win, but figures to be running late and mix it up at the end in the exotics.

Multi-Race Horses:

A - 5,1
B - 7,4
Suggest Plays:



Race 8 - 1-1/8mi Vanity G1 - Play
A - #4 Let Faith Arise (2-1) - should be forwardly placed in a race without much speed. Pace, class and her Beyers make her an obvious contender.
B - #3 Grace Hall (5/2) - needs to regain some form, but her race last out wasn't bad and I have tremendous respect for the way Bill Mott places his horses.  Definite win chance with a step forward off last out.
C - #1 Iotapa (4-1) - will need to work out a trip, but has never been out of the exacta at Sa.  The stretch back out should be to her liking.
D - #5 Scherzinger (9/2) - 3 for 4 at Sa, is stretching out for a reputable barn and that is a move I have to respect
E - #6 Yahilwa (6-1) - may show some early speed, but not sure she can hold it.  Lots to prove.

Multi-Race Horses:

A - 4,3
B - 1
Suggest Plays:

$2 - 4,3 / 4,3 = $4
$1 - 4,3 / 4,3,1,5,6 = $8


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