Florida Derby
If I could sum up Calvin Borel it would be a race thief. Purely for his ability to steal races and then cover it up with his nice cajun accent and smile. Whether coming through on the rail or on the front end he is a master at this, and hats off to Calvin for stealing another one with Take Charge Indy in the Florida Derby. While all the other riders were worried about Union Rags and Julien Leparoux, Calvin simply put them to sleep through 3/4 in 1:12. It seemed all the jockeys forgot that they had to catch the leader to win. Down the backstretch Javier Castellano on El Padrino kept Union Rags in tight with no where to run. And it wasn't until in the stretch that Leparoux was able to find room to maneuver Union Rags into the clear, but by that time it was too late - Calvin had just made off with the goods!
Below are my trip notes and some thoughts going forward off this race:
Take Charge Indy - He got a lot of pace help while leading - 3/4 in 1:12. I don't think he'll like the added ground of the Derby and he is sure to be pressed for the lead. Though I do think TCI could be dangerous in the Preakness.
New Pending - What happened here? He broke extremely slow and then seemed to have no interest, though the slow pace didn't help his style, I did think he would finish a little better. One thing to note, watch for this horse to switch back to the grass at some point. His past performances suggest good grass style and Dale Romans has a good history with this dirt to turf angle - ie. Paddy O'Prado.
El Padrino - I've heard a lot of criticism for Javier Castellano's ride. Here's the way I see it: 1) Javier had ridden Union Rags in the past and I think he knew Union Rags was the horse to beat. He knew if he kept Union Rags bottled up then he would have first run and Leparoux would have to wait - smart race riding in my mind. 2) What Javier forget to pay attention to was the slow pace and thus when he asked El Padrino to run, Take Charge Indy still had a lot left in the tank.
Union Rags - My biggest concern when handicapping this race was that Javier would keep El Padrino on the outside of Union Rags, effectively bottling him up. Halfway down the backstretch I realized this was going to be the case and with a pace that seemed like they were crawling, I began to have doubts that Union Rags would be able to overcome both of these obstacles. And when Leparoux was only able to find running room for Union Rags after they turned for home I knew he was beaten. But, there were some positives that we should make a note of that will be a factor in the Ky Derby: 1) He had a horrible trip being bottled up against a slow pace and was really only able to run deep into the stretch. 2) Once he finally got to run Union Rags was the only horse closing on the leader late. Due to the slow pace the rest of the horses could not gain on a leader that looked fresh in the stretch after having things his own way for the entire race. 3) The added 1/8 of a mile distance in the Ky Derby will help Union Rags.
Race Notes: If Reveron was able to hang around for 2nd then you know the pace had to be slow. Remember your eyes will easily deceive you at the end of the race where a slow pace played a huge factor. Horses who may be running great will appear to be standing still thus not making up any ground because the leader still had enough in the tank to kick for home. While others like El Padrino stood still, Union Rags did cut into the lead.
Santa Anita Oaks
Willa B Awesome got a lot of pace help and caught Reneesgotzip at the wire. Reneesgotzip figured to run well after her disastrous first turn and then subsequently being rushed up to the lead in her last start. And she did run better, much better. If you watched the preview with Dan Illman and Mike Beer at drf.com, then Dan set this one up for you. And I hope Mike bought Dan the drink that was promised if Willa B Awesome won. In a 5 horse race with two standouts the $1 Trifecta paid $43.30! If you listened to Dan all you had to do was box Eden's Moon, Reneesgotzip and Will B Awesome for a total of $6 - unfortunately I did not listen to Dan.
My Top Kentucky Derby Contenders
1) Union Rags - Given the circumstances of the Fla Derby and that he was on the only horse gaining on the leader in the stretch, I think it shows how game of a horse he is. Leparoux learned a lot and Union Rags should appreciate the extra distance.
2) Creative Cause - I have liked this horse since I saw him run in the Norfolk stakes. More to come...
3) Hansen - A definite contender after what he showed in the Gotham. More to come...
4) El Padrino - given the added distance of the Ky Derby and pace of the Fla Derby I decided to leave him here for the moment
I'll have an update on my Contenders have the Wood Memorial and the Blue Grass.
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