Friday, September 9, 2011

Post Saratoga Woodward Stakes...

Before the Woodward I thought it was Havre De Grace's race to lose - and she did not disappoint!  But looking forward where does this leave the divisions?  Who leads for Horse of the Year?  What about older female?  Will Havre De Grace run in the Classic?  If she does how does Blind Luck run in the Distaff?  Personally, I think it will make for as exciting a build up to the Breeders Cup this fall as we could have hoped for without Zenyatta.  But great horses always retire and horse racing always goes on and go on it must because we have a lot of questions to answer!

Below I've listed some of the top horses and how I view them at this point in the year:

First Dude -  Mid summer he was my pick to win the classic this year, but unfortunately he retired early.  He and I were going places at the betting windows!
Shackleford - Looked tired in the Travers and at this point doesn't seem to want the distance of the classic, though I am excited about him at shorter distances and as a 4 yr old.
Animal Kingdom -  Had a convincing win in the Kentucky Derby, just missed in the Preakness, but I think the Belmont showed his heart.  While most horses raced toward the first turn trying to get position and settling into the race Animal Kingdom's Jockey was still trying to get his foot back in the irons after a near disastrous stumble just after the break that was caused my another jockey.  The stumble cost Animal Kingdom 10-15 lengths and that is a huge margin to spot horses on a wet track in the grueling 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes.  But, there was a moment on the far turn when John Valezquez had Animal Kingdom moving on the leaders that every horse racing fan thought, "Is Animal Kingdom really that good?"  Of course we all know he wasn't that day, but we found out later he had been injured in the incident after the break.  I think he would have been a lock for divisional leader had he been able to finish his 3 year old season, but he will surely be passed now.   I have to say, I am really excited about his return next year!
Stay Thirsty - Moved up the ladder with an impressive Travers win that was his race to lose.  Has a serious shot in the classic which would secure him at the top of the 3 yr olds and give him a good chance at Horse of the year.
Uncle Mo - Was glad to see him back in the Kings Bishop and though he got beat by a nose he showed some guts laying close to a blistering pace then kicking away only to be caught by a horse who had an ideal pace scenario for his running style.  Pletcher has not ruled out the classic which would be an amazing story if he pulled it off.
Havre De Grace - Made a bold move running in the Woodward!  The main question is can she hold off Blind Luck if they both run in the classic...I'm not so sure.  But regardless, with the Woodward win I think she went a step ahead of Blind Luck in the older female division.  But there remain a lot of questions that need to be answered between this rivalry that will probably continue well into January 2012 before the ballots are cast.
Blind Luck - I have to say I really like this horse, maybe it is the come from behind style, but I think she has a lot of heart, which showed in this years Delaware Handicap.  If Havre De Grace runs in the classic I don't see how her connections can run Blind Luck in the Distaff.  Honestly, at this point in the year with First Dude out Blind Luck is my pick to win the classic if she goes.  She'll have to run down Stay Thirsty and Havre De Grace, but I think the 1-1/4 mile distance fits her.  To win older female she has to take down Havre De Grace again and to have a shot at Horse of the Year she needs to win the classic, which I think could be hers to lose, esp. at Churchill the sight of her Oaks win!
Winter Memories - Can't wait for her to run again after her troubled trip in the Woodford.  I love an El Prado turf horse and it took me a few days to get over the retirement of Paddy O'Prado this May.
Tizway -Has definitely made a name for himself as a Grade 1 winner with impressive wins in the Met Mile and Whitney Handicap.  Not sure how he'll like the distance of the classic if he goes there.
Acclamation - Turf/Artificial runner was very game winning the Pacific Classic on the lead while holding off a run from Twirling Candy.  Also, has stacked up 3 grade 1 wins in a row.  Connections have been noted as saying they will not run him on the dirt.
Royal Delta - This Black Eyed Susan and Alabama winner ranks among the leaders for 3 yr old female.  She'll need to step up again this year to solidify that title over It's Tricky.  And if Blind Luck and Havre De Grace both go to the classic, then at this point I like her chances in the Distaff though she'll have to beat It's Tricky at a distance that suits.
It's Tricky - Coaching Club American Oaks and Acorn winner - both Grade 1's.  I think her and Royal Delta are neck and neck for 3 yr old female.  And just like Royal Delta she'll need to step up again this year to get that title as there are a few more horses out there who have a shot. 

Woodward, Forego Recaps -
First of all I want to thank the betting public for allowing Jackson Bend to go off at 3-1 and Jersey Town at 4-1.  Jackson Bend ran a great race and I'm glad Nakatani  was patient on the rail and didn't rush him early.  My thoughts were if Jackson Bend can get through on the rail he is the winner, if he gets caught up then it is Jersey Town's to lose.  I played a few exactas and hit the 1/4 at $30.

I love a filly taking on the boys.  Havre De Grace fired big to hold off a late charging Flat Out, but this race was really hers to lose and she reached up and grabbed her class for the win.  From a future betting angle, I think the thing that was most notable about the race was that Flat Out was wide all the way.  I'm not sure that would have made a difference in the outcome because Havre De Grace seemed to dig in late, but in his next race against a similar field he might be a good bet.

More to come later...

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