Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Multirace Bets:
Will post after the scratches are announced.
Race 5 - 1-1/8 mile Hagyard Fayette Stakes Grade 1 - Action+
A - #3 Race Day (10-1) - He's won over this surface and he has fired off a layoff before. On his best day he could handle this field with ease. Works suggest he is ready at a good price. Win selection.
B - #5 Hoppertunity (7/2) - Is just a cut below the Breeders' Cup horses, so he has a real shot here. Look for him to be in contention turning for home. Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #9 Commissioner (5-1) - If he can get to an early lead he can grind away on the front end and could very well take them gate to wire. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #10 Encryption (12-1) - Should sit close to the pace. Exotics use.
E - #6 Protonico (3-1) - Has a win over this course and may very well go for the lead. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 3,5
B - 9,10,6
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 3,5,9 / 3,5,9 = $6
$1 - 3,5,10 / 3,5,10 = $6
$1 - 3,5,6 / 3,5,6 = $6
Race 6 - 1 mile BC Juvenile Turf - Action+
A - #13 Cymric (7/2) - Euro may get parked a little wide, but he missed winning a Group 1 in Europe by a neck in his last race and Euro turf horses tend to be a little better than ours. Needs a good trip. Win selection.
B - #7 Ray's The Bar (20-1) - Love the value on a horse that can really close, look for him to arrive on the scene late, but hopefully in time for the wire. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #10 Conquest Daddyo (12-1) - Has the last out highest beyer figure, but he'll need to workout a trip from that post, good exotic value.
D - #6 Birchwood (12-1) - He a European Group 2 winner, will need to successfully stretch out to 1 mile. Exotics use.
E - #11 Hollywood Don (10-1) - He's moving back to the turf and expect to see him sit close to the pace and be in contention turning for hom. He can win but he'll have to hold off some dead closers as the wire draws near. Good exotics horse.
Bottom End Trifecta/Superfecta Horses:
#9 Sky Marshal (30-1)
#2 Azar (10-1)
#14 Hit It a Bomb (9/2)
Multi-Race Horses: 13,7,10,6
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 13,7/13,7,10,6,11 = $8
Race 6 - 1 Mile BC Dirt Mile Grade 1 - Play
A - #5 Lea (8-1) - He's 3 for 3 at this distance and has a 100+ par rating in his last
race. He came within a neck of being a two time Grade 1 winner in the
Stephen Foster. I really think he could sit the best trip (just behind
the speed horses) and then pick up the pieces in the stretch. Win
selection, definite exotics use.
B - #3 Liam's Map (Even) - He's proven he can get a lead and hold on in the stretch after producing
some fast fractions. His par ratings are really good and he owns the
top 2 best speed ratings in the field. It should also be noted that he
is 3 for 3 at this distance. My only question is how hard will he be
pressed early by several other speed horses in the race and what toll
will that take on him later in the race? If he can shake loose and get a
clear lead, he'll be hard to catch. But, the win statistics for the
post time favorite in the BC Dirt Mile are not good. Definite win
contender and exotics use.
C - #9 Tapiture (10-1) - Don't let the lower par rating or beyers fool you, he ran a winning race
in the Dirt Mile last year. Unfortunately, two time BC Dirt Mile
winner Goldencents was in that race too and Tapiture just couldn't get
by him. With all the speed in the race, he has the potential to sit a
really good trip and be in contention in the stretch. He's working very
well and should move forward off his win in the Ack Ack Handicap. Win
chance, definite exotics use.
D - #8 Wicked Strong (5-1) - Always seems to put in a good effort, though he has not been back to the
winners circle this year. He's another horse that will benefit from
all the speed in this race and he could sit a really good trip.
Definite exotics use.
E - #1 Red Vine (6-1) - Like that he has a 100+ par rating in his last race. There are several
speed horses in here the should help is stalking style. Rosario will
need to work out a good trip, but if horses started backing up turning
for home he could be sitting in a good spot. Win chance, definite
exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses:
A- 3,5
B - 9,8,1
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 3,5,9/3,5,9,8,1,2 = $15
$5 - Win/Place #5 = $10
Race 8 - 1 Mile BC Juvenile Fillies Turf Grade 1 - Play
A - #10 Illuminate (9/2) - She's a Group 2 winner in Europe and is 3 for 4 on the Turf, Dettori is riding again so you know she'll be in good hands. Win selection.
B - #4 Catch a Glimpse (5-1) - Has the top last out speed figure for this bunch, she'll be on the lead so someone will have to come catch her. She's 2 for 2 on the turf. Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #8 Harmonize (7/2) - Has a win over the Keeneland turf course and is 2 for 3 on the turf. She been working well some I'm expect a big effort. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #3 Alice Spring (6-1) - Euro that can definitely win here. She's drawn well, so look for her to cover up and then come running turning for home. May add some value.
E - #7 Sapphire Kitten (10-1) - She'll be arriving on the scene late, but that could be enough to land her in the exotics and a good price.
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 10
B - 4,8,3,7
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 10,4,8/10,4,8,3,7,9 = $15
Race 9 - 1-1/8 Mile Breeders' Cup Distaff Grade 1 - Action
A - #7 Wedding Toast (4-1) - She's 3 for 3 at this distance and she put together multiple triple
digit beyers and above par efforts in her last 2 starts. She does her
best running on the lead and there are several in here that will
challange her. If she get's a clear lead she'll be tough to reel in and
she's already beaten several of these. She'll likely be the favorite
and with Untapable scratching she'll take a lot more money, so there may
not be a lot of value. Win selection, definite exotics use.
B - #12 Got Lucky (6-1) - Shares the top last out speed rating with Yahilwa. I really like the
consistency in her speed figures and she seems to be coming into this
race the right way. If the speed collapses she could be running best at
the end. Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #9 Stellar Wind (12-1) - On paper she comes looks a step below the best, but she really seems to
be coming into this race the right way. Stretching out from her above
par effort in her last race, she figures to sit just behind the speed
and could very well pickup the pieces turning for home. Win chance,
definite exotics use.
D - #8 Curalina (12-1) - Took a big step forward in her last race while running par. Given her
post position I think she could sit a really good stalking trip behind
the speed. Slight win chance, definite exotics use.
E - #4 Stopchargingmaria (5-1) - She's a multiple grade 1 and grade 2 winner, though she has not run near
as fast as several of the others in here in terms of par ratings and
beyer figures. But she is 5 for 7 at this distance and the clockers
have really like the way she is working. Verse these I give her a
slight win chance and she's a definite exotics horse.
Bottom Trifecta/Superfecta Horses:
#10 Yahilwa (20-1)
#14 Sheer Drama (9/2)
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 7
B - 12,9,8,4,10
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 7/12,9,8,4,10 = $5
$1 - 12,9,8,4,10/7 = $5
$1 - 12,9,8/12,9,8,4 = $9
Race 10 - 1-3/4 Miles Marathon Grade 2 - Play
A - #4 Neck 'n Neck (3-1) - Has won at 1-1/2 miles. Speed figures put him at the top. Win selection.
B - #14 Zambian Dream (20-1) - Stretching out and with the length of this race, getting caught wide is less of a concern. Speed figures put him in the mix. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #13 Bailoutbobby (6-1) - Will be coming from well off the pace, but he's won over this track and has run well at 1-1/2 miles. Win chance, exotics use.
D - #9 Majestic Harbor (7/2)
E - #8 Lynx (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 4,14
B - 13,9
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 4,14,13/4,14,13,9 = $9
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