I am in Baltimore for the Preakness, so I am unable to post all the stakes races for Saturday. Below are my Preakness Stakes selections and thoughts.
Pre Scratches
Race 13 - 1-3/16 miles Preakness Stakes G1 - Play
A - #2 Dortmund (7/2) - Tired with an easy lead in the Ky Derby. There seems to be a lot of
other speed in this race, but the same thing was said in 2012 and
Shackleford went gate to wire. I don't think anyone is going to want to
run early with the top 3 that seem so dominant and that could open the
door for Dortmund to get a clear lead. A clear lead in the Preakness
has proven to be dangerous, see Oxbow in 2013. I think he'll rebound
off the Derby and run a big race, whether it is good enough to win or
not I'm unsure. But, if he can get a clear lead and/or if Pharoah gets
boxed in, then I think he has a big shot. Any of those scenarios could
very well happen. Sometimes jockeys are busy trying to keep track of
the horse to beat that they forgot about the major threat on the lead.
Win selection, definite exotics use.
B - #8 Firing Line (4-1) - Was the winner of the post position draw. Gary Stevens can sit outside
of horses, which allows him to watch and react easily to what is going
on inside of him. A lot has been made of how much American Pharoah had
to work to win the Ky Derby, but little has been said that Firing Line
had to work just as hard. And, he seemed to tire late and drift just
before the wire. It wouldn't be a shock if he regressed off his Ky
Derby effort, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he moved forward.
Regardless, the post position draw is a big plus in his corner, esp
since American Pharoah drew the rail. Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #1 American Pharoah (4/5) - Had he drawn outside, he would have been my top selection. A lot
depends on what happens at the break. Does American Pharoah go for the
lead? Does Martin Garcia on Dortmund leave space on the inside for his
stablemate or does he get ahead of him and shut the door. The other
thing that could make the post position a non-factor is if Dortmund,
Firing Line and American Pharoah separate themselves from the rest of
this mediocre pack on the far turn. That would allow him to move out
and swing wide. Positives - got the best of these in the Derby while
fighting down the entire stretch, has the tactical speed to get good
position early, is the best horse in the race, if the track turns up wet
he has already won in the slop. Negatives - rail post position could
easily get him boxed in, not sure how he will handle kick back, other
jockeys could be riding to keep him boxed. Lots to consider. Definite
win contender and exotics use.
D - #7 Diving Rod (12-1) - Ran well we easily beating rivals in the Lexington Stakes. He'll need a
step forward to win and horses that ran in the Ky Derby dominate the
win category in the Preakness. Good exotics horse.
E - #4 Danzig Moon (15-1) - Ran evenly around the track in the Kentucky Derby. Don't think he can
move forward enough to win against the top 3, but he could very well
crack the exotics. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,8,1
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2,8,1 / 2,8,1 / 2,8,1 = $12
$0.50 - 2,8,1 / 2,8,1 / 2,8,1,7,4,3 = $12
$0.50 - 2,8,1 / 2,8,1,7,4,3 / 2,8,1 = $12
$0.50 - 2,8,1 / 7,4,3 / 7,4,3 = $9
$1 - 2,8 / 2,8,1 / 2,8,1,7,4,3 = $16
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