Kentucky Derby Stats Guide
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Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Aqueduct
Race 8 - 1-1/8mi Gazelle G2 - Play
A - #5 Condo Commando (8/5) - May get an easy lead and she seems much the best in here. Has beaten G1 and G2 horses, no other horse in the field has this distinction. Owns a win at this distance and at Aqu. Is 4 for 5 lifetime. - Won $3.30
B - #4 Wonder Gal (7/2) - 1st out in 2015, but she finished close to the winner in two G1's last year. Will need to fire fresh. Good exotics horse.
C - #2 Sweet Corine (4-1) - Some trouble last out, will need to take a step forward, but I like her style and a jockey/trainer that have combined for 32%. Definite exotics use.
D - #7 Noble and a Beauty (8-1) - Exotic use.
E - #3 Money'ssoncharlotte (20-1) - Cross a line thru her last out and she fits. Could be a huge exotics booster.
Multi-Race Horses: 5
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 5 / 4,2 / 4,2 = $6
$1 - 5 / 4,2,7,3 / 4,2,7,3 = $8
Race 9 - 7f BayShore G3 - Action+
A - #8 Majestic Affair (6-1) - Like the outside post and he's 2 for 2 at this distance. Seems ready when you consider poor performance last out was over an off surface. Jockey/Trainer are 28%.
B - #1 Lord Nelson (2-1) - He likes this distance and has beaten G2 company. I'm sure Baffert has him ready, but he is likely to be over bet and #'s wise others in here are on the same playing field. Win chance, good exotics use.
C - #3 Ready for Rye (9/5) - Own the top speed figure last our, but that was earned while racing solely on the lead. Not sure he can repeat that if challenged. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #5 March (8-1) - Cutting back in distance from the Withers, he's got some upside to consider as he has steadily improved. But, he'll need a big step forward to win. Exotics use.
E - #7 Ackeret (12-1) - Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 8,1,3
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 8,1,3 / 8,1,3 = $6
$1 - 8,1,3 / 8,1,3,5,7 = $12
Race 10 - 1-1/8mi Wood Memorial G1 - Play
A - #5 El Kabier (3-1) - I think he has the best chance to upset Daredevil, he's run consistently throughout the prep season. Not sure how much all of the races have taken out of him, but if he runs his race he should be in contention turning for home. Win chance, good exotics horse.
B - #6 Daredevil (9/5) - If he runs to his ability, he could very well lay over this field. But there are always chances for holes in the armor. Definite win possibility and a horse to include in your exotics.
C - #4 Frosted (5/2) - Always seems to be in the mix, but has just won one race - his maiden race. Not sure he can win, but definite exotics us.
D - #2 Toasting Master (20-1) - With speed in a race that doesn't appear to have much early speed in it, this guy could hit the board at a great price, giving the exotics a much needed boost. Exotics use.
E - #1 Tiz Shea D (8-1) - Didn't run bad in the Gotham, but this will be a step up in class for sure. Should sit close enough in a race with very little pace that he could grab a piece. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,6
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5,6 / 5,6 / 4,2,1 = $6
$1 - 5,6 / 4,2,1 / 5,6 = $6
$0.50 - 5,6 / 4,2,1 / 4,2,1 = $6
Race 11 - 7f Carter Handicap G1 - Action+
A - #1 Dads Cap (7/2) - He's 2 for 2 at Aqu and his #'s show he can run fast enough to tangle with these. He has some early speed which will help him get out to the front, which is key from post 1. Looking for him to get to the lead and hopefully hold them off in the stretch. - Won $13.40
B - #3 The Big Beast (5/2) - Won the G1 King's Bishop last year and is 4 of 6 lifetime. If he runs to his top form, he'll be hard to beat. Win shot, exotics use.
C - #6 Palace (5-1) - This will be a good price on a horse that is 3 for 3 at Aqu. He'll need to fire fresh to win as this is his first start in 2015. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #7 Wild Dude (3-1) - He'll need to round back into is triple digit form form 2014. He's run well in 2015, but will need to be a little faster to beat these. Exotics use.
E - #2 Clearly Now (4-1) - Is 13 of 16 in the Trifecta, though he has never won at Aqu. His #'s suggest he is capable, but he is another one that will need to fire fresh. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 1,3,6
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 1,3,6 / 1,3,6 = $6
$1 - 1,3,6 / 1,3,6,7,2 = $12
Keeneland
Race 6 - 7f Madison G1 - Action
A - #2 Wedding Toast (4-1) - Owns a win at this distance and will need to step up a little to win but that seems within her scope. She's 5 for 8 lifetime and has always been in the Trifecta. Price is right.
B - #4 Lady Sabelia (3-1) - Will be on the front end and has the last out best speed figure, however that was earned while racing on an easy lead and those horses rarely repeat when challenged. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #3 Stopchargingmaria (5/2) - She's by far the class of the field, but from a #'s standpoint there are others in here who can beat her. Plus, this is her first start in 2015. Todd can have them ready to fire fresh, but I'd rather take a stand against her in this race. I give her a slight win chance, exotics use.
D - #6 Princess Violet (4-1) - May sit the right trip on the outside should a speed duel develop. She ran a nice figure last out at Lrl and another improvement could put her in the winners circle here. Win chance, exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,4,3,6
Suggest Plays:
With no clear cut favorite the exotics pools maybe inflated, even with a small field. The exacta prices will tell if that is the case.
$1 - 2,4,3,6 / 2,4,3,6 = $12 - HIT $27.70
Race 7 - 7f Commonwealth G3 - Action+
A - #4 Rocket Time (5-1) - Cutting back in distance it looks like he could get an easy lead. He owns a win over the track and at this distance, plus he's 4 of 7 lifetime. Price is right.
B - #2 Kobe's Back (5/2) - Would really like his chances if there were more speed in the race. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #1 I Got It All (5-1) - Always seems to mix it up as he is 9 out of 11 lifetime in the Trifecta, with a win at Keeneland and at this distance. His #'s say he fits and he maybe the horse that can get first run on the leader if he can workout a trip. Win shot, exotics use.
D - #3 Bourbon Courage (3-1) - He doesn't win much, but he's 15 out of 22 in the Trifecta lifetime and one of his wins came over this track last fall. And he ran a decent 4th last year in the BC Sprint. I don't see him winning, but definite exotics use.
E - #7 C. Zee (7/2) - Has some good #'s and should be forwardly placed. Another one that seems to be a good exotics horse. He's 12 of 14 lifetime in the Trifecta.
Multi-Race Horses: 4,2,1
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 4,2,1 / 4,2,1,3,7 = $12 - HIT $14.20
Race 8 - 5-1/2f Shakertown G3 TURF - Action+
A - #10 Power Alert (7/2) - Runs well at this distance and may sit the right trip.
B - #4 Something Extra (10-1) - First out in 2015, but he has some class. However, he has never won at this distance. Win shot, exotics use.
C - #13 Undrafted (5/2) - Will need to work a trip on the far outside, but he lost by just 1/2 a length in the BC Sprint last fall. First out in 2015. Win shot, exotics use.
D - #3 Zee Bros (8-1) - Showed he likes the turf last fall here at Keeneland, should be forwardly placed. Exotics use.
E - #11 Amelia's Wild Ride (6-1) - Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 10,4,13
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 10,4,13 / 10,4,13,3,11 = $12
Race 9 - 1-1/16mi Ashland G1 - Play
A - #6 Lovely Maria (7/2) - Maybe the early speed in a race that appears to have no speed. - Won $5.80
B - #4 Angela Renee (7/2) - Is the class of the field, but I'm not sure her style works in this race where there is little pace. Slight win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #3 Peace and War (3-1) - Came from out of the clouds last out to win a G1, but that was last fall and this is her first out in 2015. She'll need to sit a little closer today. Exotics use.
D - #7 West Coast Belle (4-1) - Won a G2, but she is another one in here that has an off the pace style. Exotics use.
E - #1 Lassofthemohicans (4-1) - Bottom end exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 6,4
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 6 / 4,3,7,1 = $12 - HIT $25.80
$1 - 6,4 / 6,4,3,7 = $6 - HIT $8.60
Race 10 - 1-1/8mi Blue Grass Stakes G1 - Play
A - #5 Carpe Diem (Even) - Seems to be the major player here. Has rarely run a bad race and owns a win over this Keeneland surface. All others will need to improve to beat him. If he runs back to his recent form he is a deserving favorite. I'm just not sure I want to take a shot against him in this spot. Deserving favorite. - Won $2.80
B - #7 Classy Class (6-1) - I think this could be the horse that has the best chance to turn the tables on Carpe Diem, though I think it is unlikely should the favorite run his race. Slight win chance, good exotics horse.
C - #1 Ocho Ocho Ocho (6-1) - He backed up badly in the San Felipe, but if you draw a line through that race it would put him in the exotics here. Would need big rebound to win, but definite exotics horse.
D - #6 Frammento (8-1) - Owns a win over this surface and his Fountain of Youth fourth place wasn't too bad considering he closed from well out of the clouds. Has a good exotics shot, but the seemingly lack of pace may hurt his win chances. Good exotics horse.
E - #8 Danzig Moon (8-1) - Was never really a factor for the win last out in the Tampa Bay Derby. But, a little improvement would land him squarely in the exotics. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 5
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 5 / 7,1 / 7,1 = $6
$1- 5 / 7,1,6,8 / 7,1,6,8 = $12 - HIT $31.00
Santa Anita
I only had time to post the Santa Anita Oaks and Santa Anita Derby, however there are several other smaller stakes on the card.
Race 7 - 1-1/16mi Santa Anita Oaks G1 - Action+
A - #1 Light the City (5-1) - Ran a close second in a G1 two back, will need a good trip, but the price is good.
B - #6 Stellar Wind (9/5) - Has the last out top speed figure and she's won at this distance and at Sa. Should be a class test for her. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #7 Wild At Heart (8-1) - Like the last workout and has always been in the exacta. Slight win chance with a step forward, definite exotics use. (This is a great book, if you haven't read Wild At Heart you should)
D - #2 Glory (8-1) - Exotics use.
E - #3 Curlin's Fox (4-1) - Has never run on dirt, but she picks up Smith which suggest she has some potential. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 1,6,7
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 1,6,7 / 1,6,7,2,3 = $12
Race 8 - 1-1/8mi Santa Anita Derby G1 - Action+
A - #1 Dortmund (3/5) - Is 5 for 5 lifetime and 3 for 3 on the Santa Anita Dirt. He has seemed to will himself to get up in his recent starts. Two back when he looked beaten in the stretch against Firing Line, he showed he has a lot of determination when he came back to edge Firing Line for the win. No reason to go against him in this small field. Unless, you can find a reason that Bolo or Prospect Park can turn the tables. Deserving favorite. - Won $3.20
B - #5 Prospect Park (7/2) - Closed well in the San Felipe, but was still just 2nd best. Not sure the added ground will help him. Maybe he turns the tables on Dortmund, but I'm just not sure. Slight win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #4 Bolo (4-1) - Prove turf horse that ran a good 3rd to Dortmund in the San Felipe. He challenged Dortmund for the lead in that race, but was repelled. He'll need to find more to get the best of Dortmund. Definite exotics use.
D - #2 One Lucky Dane (5-1) - Baffert's other runner in this race that is back on the Derby trail after running 6th in the BC Juvenile. He blew the doors off an Optional Claiming race at Sa last out. Is 2 for 3 on the Santa Anita dirt. Not without a chance, but will need a big step forward to tackle Dortmund. Exotics use.
E - #6 Bad Read Sanchez (30-1) - Seems well below the rest in here, but a bottom end exotics finish would definitely boost the payouts in this small field. I would throw him in on the bottom of my Trifecta and Superfecta plays simply for that factor.
Multi-Race Horses: 1,5,4
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 1 / 5,4 = $4
$2 - 1 / 5,4,2,6 = $8 - HIT $13.40
$2 - 5,4 / 5,4,1 = $8
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