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Pre Scratches.
Note - Not sure of the condition of the track at Oaklawn. I handicapped these based on a dry track. Please adjust your plays according to your own predictions for a wet track.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Oaklawn Park
Race 7 - 1-1/16mi Azeri G2- Play
A - #1 Untapable (1/2) - Certainly her best lays over this field and her BC Distaff win was solid. Had we seen a race like that from her this season she would certainly be a single in this field. But, a few questions remain, will she come back as good at 4 years old, some fillies don't. How will she handle a wet track (if it is indeed muddy)? if you are going to try to beat her, then today is likely the best chance to do that. However, she greatly outclasses this field and I don't believe Asmussen is just looking for a good effort in this race.
B - #4 Gold Medal Dancer (10-1) - She seems to be moving in the right direction and if a horse is going to beat Untapable I think it will be done by a horse that sits close to the pace. Tough challenge, but good exotics horse.
C - #5 Mufajaah (4-1) - I like the improvement last out, but I'm not sure I like her style in this race. Still she'll be closing late. Upset chance, definite exotics use. Loves Oaklawn Park!
Multi-Race Horses: 1,4
Suggest Plays:
$5 - 1 / 4,5 = $10
Race 8 - 1-1/16mi Razorback Handicap G3 - Action+
A - #5 Race Day (7/2) - His last race at GP was a good start to the season and when Pletcher ships to Op he normally means business. Several in here to like, but this is a definite contender.
B - #1 Tapiture (5/2) - I love this horse and you get a good performance each time he runs. His effort to run down Goldencents in the BC Dirt Mile was good one, though he fell short. He can beat this field, but he'll need to fire fresh. Win contender, exotics use.
C - #6 Carve (3-1) - Ran a great race last out here at Op. I like the improvement, but he has never paired back to back triple digit beyers. He's 4 of 7 at Op and 50% at this distance. He'll need his best, but he can beat these. Win contender, exotics use.
D - #7 Ride On Curlin (3-1) - He' hasn't run bad and has a lot of class, but I'm not sure I like his style to win here. Good exotics candidate.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,1,6
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 5,1,6 / 5,1,6 = $6
$1 - 5,1 / 5,1,6,7,4 = $8
Race 10 - 1-1/16mi Rebel Stakes G2 - Play
A - #4 American Pharoah (1/2) - If he runs to 80% he'll beat this field. But he'll need to prove it being his debut start in 2015. He should handle the wet track, but that will be a question that needs to be answered. Strong win candidate.
B - #2 MadefromLucky (6-1) - I really like his style and his sire was Preakness winner. Upset chance, if something goes wrong for American Pharoah. Definite exotics use.
C - #1 The Truth Or Else (4-1) - Exotics use.
D - #5 Bold Conquest (8-1) - Is interesting in here. He's got some talent, but he is likely going to be coming from off the pace. Not sure he can make up the ground. Good exotics horse.
Multi-Race Horses: 1,2
Suggest Plays:
$5 - 4 / 2,1,5 = $15
$2 - 4 / 6 = $2
Santa Anita Park
Race 5 - 6-12f Irish O'Brien Stakes DOWNHILL TURF - Action+
A - #4 Go West Marie (2-1) - Can really close and if you compare her opening fractions to her closing fractions she is a few lengths better than most in here. Good win chance.
B - #6 Velvet Mesquite (9/5) - Is probably the most likely candidate to beat Go West Marie based on her closing ability compared to her opening fractions. Win candidate, exotics use.
C - #1 Bert's Melody (8-1) - Good exotics horse based on her love of the Sa turf and he cut back in distance. Possibly upset chance, good exotics boost.
D - #7 Star Field (6-1) - Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 4,6,1
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 4,6,1 / 4,6,1 = $6
$1 - 4,6,1 / 4,6,1,7 = $9
Race 8 - 1-1/8 Santa Margarita G1 - Action
A - #3 Dame Dorothy (5/2) - May sit the right trip in a race that appears wide open on paper. Is interesting that Pletcher ships out here.
B - #7 Warren's Veneda (2-1) - Has got some class having won a G2 last out. Pace in front would help. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #2 Cassatt (3-1) - If she can get things her own way she would be a good play, but there is some other speed in here. Win chance, exotics use.
D - #4 Thegirlinthatsong (9/2) - The other G2 winner in the field. Maybe a win chance, but definite exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 3,7,2
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 3,7,2 / 3,7,2,4 = $9
Good Luck!
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