Saturday, October 4, 2014

10/4 Belmont Park - Champagne Stakes Day

Champagne Stakes Stats Guide - Free!
Our Champagne Stakes Stats Guide is available for Free on our website.  The link below will take you to the Big Day Stats website where you can download the guide.  Again, it's Free - Enjoy!

Guide Download Link:
Champagne Stakes Stats Guide

Example Stat from the Guide:
In the past 21 years, 15 winners (71%) of the Champagne Stakes finished 1st in their previous start.


Updated 1:40pm EST.

Race Rating System-

I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.



Race 4 - 1-5/8 miles Temperence Hill Stakes - Action
A - #5 Ever Rider (2-1) - like the post to tip the scale on the inside foe that beat him last out.
B - #1 Cary Street (5/2) - won the Greenwood Cup last out against #5 Ever Rider, not crazy that he is drawn inside
C - #2 Awesome Vision (7/2) - is really stretching out in distance, I think he is interesting, but it should be noted that he has never finished in the exacta in 4 starts at Belmont
D - #3 Slim Shadey (10-1) - has mainly run on turf in his career, but I think he could hit the board here for an exotics boost.

Multi-Race Horses:  5,1,2
Suggest Plays:

$2 - 5,1 / 5,1 = $4
$1 - 5,1 / 5,1,2,3 = $6



Race 6 - 1 mile Frizette Stakes G1 - Action+
A - #4 Feathered (7/2) - ran a decent race on a slow Saratoga track last out.  The recent work suggest she's ready, but she may need to stalk the pace in this bunch.  No doubt she'll take money with the Pletcher/Castellano combo.
B - #1 Cavorting (5/2) - nice recent workouts and is on the improve.  I expect a big effort today.
C - #3 Ring Knocker (15-1) - I like the way she has improved in her two starts.  Nice exotics boost.
D - #6 Condo Commando (2-1) - note that the big figure last out was earned while she race on a easy lead, those horses rarely repeat.  Will let her beat me in the win category, exotics use.
E - #7 By The Moon (8-1) - I wouldn't leave this one out of my Superfecta, exotics boost.

Multi-Race Horses:  4,1,3
Suggest Plays:

$2 - 4,1 / 4,1 = $4
$1 - 4,1 / 4,1,3,6,7 = $8



Race 8 - 1 mile Champagne Stakes G1 - Action+
A - #3 I Spent It (6-1) - like the value on a horse that has run well in past and has a win over this course. I like his running style considering the speed in the race.  Good value.
B - #1 El Kabeir (5/2) - has post two solid workouts back to back.  Nice speed figure last out, but it was early will racing with an easy lead.
C - #2 Upstart (7/2) - nice speed figure last out while racing on a slow Saratoga surface, may get a good stalking trip considered the speed in here.
D - #6 Daredevil (2-1) - Pletcher/Castellano horse figures to take money, esp. with the recent workouts.  Still he caught and easy lead last out and only ran a figure that is not going to compete with these.  Will need some improvement and will be challenged up front.

Multi-Race Horses:  3,1,2
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 3,1,2 / 3,1,2,6 = $9
$1 - 3,1 / 3,1,2 = $4



Race 9 - 1-1/8 miles Hill Prince Stakes G3 - Action
A - #1 Ring Weekend (4-1) - decent price on a horse that closed extremely well in his 2014 turf debut last out. 
B - #5 Tourist (3-1) - drops from G1 company and cuts back in distance.  Is 4 for 3 on the turf and 4 for 4 in the exacta.  Excellent win chance.
C - #6 Sheldon (15-1) - another G1 dropper.  Finished 3 lengths behind #5 Tourist last out.  Exotics.
D - #9 Mr Speaker (5/2) - will likely go off as the favorite, but he needs to prove his turf form is as good as his dirt
E - #4 Smooth Daddy (12-1) - ran a good race when finished 2-3/4 lengths behine #1 Ring Weekend last out.  Maybe a cut below the best in here, but is a good exotics horse.

Multi-Race Horses: 1,5,6
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 1,5 / 1,5 = $2
$1 - 1,5 / 1,5,6,9,4 = $8

No comments:

Post a Comment