4-12-2014 - Oaklawn Park - Arkansas Derby Day Races 9-11

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Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics. 


Race 9 - 6f Instant Racing Stakes -  Play
A - #2 Jojo Warrior (2-1) - steps out of Md Sp Wt, but so does several others in here.  Though she was off the pace in her last start he was with 1-1/2 lengths at the top of the stretch call.  She's worked like a machine and appears to be ready.  She'll get a lot of play being a Baffert horse so you may want to look to the exotics for value.
B - #1 Adrianne G (5/2) - is 2 for 2 at Op and 2 for 3 at this distance, speed on the inside could be dangerous if she catches a flyer leaving the gate
C - #5 Sweetmarys Success (7/2) - drawn outside the other speed she may sit a good trip if several go at it on the front end
D - #3 Annuity (9/2) - Beyers fit as she gets back to sprinting, always in the Exacta at Op
E - #4 Street Story (8-1) - may be off form as of late, but a turn around here puts her in the exotics - WIN

Multi-Race Horses - 2,1
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2 / 1 / 5,3 = $4
$1 - 1 / 2 / 5,3 = $2
$1 - 2,1 / 5,3 / 2,1 = $4
$0.50 - 2,1 / 2,1 / 4 = $1
$0.50 - 2,1 / 5,3 / 5,3,4  = $4



Race 10 - 1-1/8 mi Oaklawn Handicap - Play
A - #2 Will Take Charge (Even) - if he runs to his current form he is going to win, not many horses run a 114 Beyer in their last start and get beat 1-3/4 lengths, he needs to be well within striking distance (2 lengths) turning for home - WIN $2.80
B - #6 Golden Lad (4-1) - is a nice improving horse trained by Pletcher, definite exotics contender
C - #1 Revolutionary (9/2) - I don't think he is a win candidate here without a huge step forward, but he always gives a solid effort which would land him in the exotics here
D - #7 Prayer for Relief (12-1) - has posted some nice Beyers and me be a little forgotten about with the other big names in here.  Definite exotics boost.
E - #4 Carve (12-1)

Multi-Race Horses - 2
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 2 / 6 / 1 = $3
$1 - 2 / 6,1 / 1,6,7,4 = $6 - HIT $25.10
$1 - 6 / 2 / 1,7,4 = $3
$0.50 - 2 / 6,1 / 7,4 = $2 - HIT $12.55
$0.50 - 2 / 7,4 / 6,1 = $2 



Race 11 - 1-1/8 Arkansas Derby G1 - Play
A - #3 Tapiture (9/5) - Has don't little wrong in his last 3 races. Was bumped around in the stretch last out while having to force a hole to go through. Horse that ran 1st or 2nd in their last start have won the AR Derby 75% in the last 20 years. Should sit a close stalking trip. Hard to knock him.
B - #8 Bayern (2-1) - This guy appears solid on paper, but 18 of the last 20 (90%) of the AR Derby winners ran in a previous Ky Derby Prep. Still based on several basic handicapping principals he must be respected and will likely finish in the money.
C - #4 Ride On Curlin (12-1) - Was soundly beaten in the Southwest by Tapiture and Strong Mandate, but only lost by a length in the Rebel. He has steadily improved and must be considered, esp. in the exotics.
D - #9 Strong Mandate (9/2) - Has steadily improved on our par rating scale and the Beyer scale, but Tapiture has handed it to him 2 times this year. Both times he did have some trip issues. He should be able to stay outside of trouble, but he will likely have to race wide if he doesn't break on top. I think he must be respected based on his improving form, but I want to see him turn the tables on Tapiture this year before I back him to win. Heavy exotics candidate.
E - #7 Conquest Titan (10-1) - I think this guy offers the best value in the race, mainly in the exotics. Horses that have run a par rating greater than 102 in any previous Ky Derby prep race have occupied at least one spot in the Exacta 72%, the Trifecta 79% and the Superfecta 84% of the time. There are only 2 horses in this field that fit these criteria. If he can sneak into the Tri or Super it will kick it up a notch.

Multi-Race Horses - 3,8
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 3 / 8 / 4,9 = $4
$1 - 3 / 8 / 4,9,7 = $3
$0.50 - 3,8 / 3,8 / 4,9,7,6 = $4
$0.50 - 3,8 / 4,9,7,6 / 3,8 = $4
$0.50 - 3,8 / 4,9 / 4,9,7 = $4